Tom Yates

For those who like to dig into the weeds, the Supplemental Material has finally been uploaded

We published explosive stories about the president of El Salvador. Now we can’t go home The long read: Days before we ran interviews with gang leaders describing their alleged ties to Nayib Bukele’s government, we left the country to avoid arrest. We fear our exile will never end

We published explosive stories about the president of El Salvador. Now we can’t go home

Not sure if we have met. I'm 50% clinical and spend the rest of the time at IHI. Thanks for summarising the bleak situation!

Thanks. Grants and fellowships suspended, or just grants, do you know?

Paywall. What has been suspended?

How can different modes of survey data collection introduce bias? | LSHTM Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview, and are commonly used in health research. Such data are traditionally collected via a single

Please join us in person or online @lshtm-dash.bsky.social on 26th February to hear about @georgiatomova.bsky.social's recent work on 'How can different modes of survey data collection introduce bias?'

www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

Assumption of the Virgin, by Guido Reno, 1598-99, 📸 by Jose Manuel Alvarez Rey

For those who like to dig into the weeds, the Supplemental Material has finally been uploaded

If we should fail?

How to interpret hazard ratios Survival analysis of time-to-event outcomes is very commonly performed using Cox’s famous proportional hazards model. The model estimates hazard ratios for the ‘effects’ of covari…

'How to interpret hazard ratios', with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social thestatsgeek.com/2026/01/15/h...

If you are interested in all things ✨causal inference✨, please join our multidisciplinary Causal Inference Interest Group (CIIG). We host monthly seminars featuring speakers with various academic backgrounds and research interests.

Links below.

cc @clscohorts.bsky.social @pwgtennant.bsky.social

Written by a family friend

This story should focus much more on the ground breaking STAMPEDE trial

The big story here is innovative, ambitious, robust randomised trials, not squabbles between charities and regulators

Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction Subsidies guaranteeing price for each unit of clean electricity generated given to 12 renewables projects A make-or-break auction for the UK government’s goal to create a clean electricity system by 2030 has awarded subsidy contracts to enough offshore windfarms to power a record 12m homes. In Great Britain’s most competitive auction for renewable subsidies to date, energy companies vied for contracts that guarantee the price for each unit of clean electricity they generate. Continue reading...

Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction

NEW LETTER

We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study

Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts

academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...

@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social

NEW LETTER

We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study

Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts

academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...

@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social

This was the funniest line to me: “If there is one thing to strongly object to about these guidelines, it’s that they are likely to be hard for many people to follow.” Oh really? That’s the one thing to strongly object to? It’s just too hard for people to eat enough steak, cheese and beef tallow?

That and the complete scientific illiteracy of rejecting the idea that saturated fat is bad for you

I know a bit about the past of MR, something about the present, and look forward to discussing whether MR has a future, and if so, how that should look

Trial statisticians!

Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?

No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.

Not sure I understand @mainstreamlabour.bsky.social's approach to decision making

How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?

Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?

The UK should be clear that there will be material consequences - not just words - if Netanyahu persists in actions like these which set back hopes of a fair negotiated peace settlement

There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere

@stellacreasy.bsky.social

Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik It’s not just the triumphalism in the White House. Leaders loth to oppose this gangsterism must think how that looks to Putin, Xi and in the UAE, says Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik

Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik

course schedule as a table. Available at the link in the post.

I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.

I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

On Politics: Inside Britain’s Asylum System Podcast Episode · The LRB Podcast · 10/12/2025 · 1h 3m

On the pod: Colin Yeo, a barrister and author of ‘Welcome to Britain: Fixing Our Broken Immigration System’, and Nicola Kelly, author of ‘Anywhere But Here: How Britain’s Broken Asylum System Fails Us All’, join James Butler to explore the politics of migration.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Symposium & workshop on inequalities in infectious disease dynamics at LSHTM in April 2026. We aim to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to share ideas, discuss recent advances, and reflect on future directions. Details & application: iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos... Closing 21 Jan

I think we have had enough uninterpretable case series and we should proceed now to trials

More importantly, it is also largely unevidenced!

NEW PREPRINT!

We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact

We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs

[1/n]

Nice bit about this in Strategy of Preventive Medicine by Rose

He was interested in radiation exposure - health outcome association, specifically what is shape of the tail? Policy response very different if no threshold below which exposure safe

Conclusion - need LOADS of data to answer question