The Dissentient

NEW with @simonkuper.bsky.social:

The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.

Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.

Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.

Hansi Flick has turned Barcelona into an unusually complete football team Diego Simeone describes Barcelona's crossing as a 'natural' part of their game - but that's down to the changes Flick has implemented

Don’t usually think of Barcelona as natural crossers, but it’s proving very handy this season
www.nytimes.com/athletic/621...

1.27 vs 0.94 compared to last season.

xG/90 and xGA/90 for this season vs last season:
24/25 season so far: 2.5 & 1.23
23/24 season: 2.04 & 1.09

Clear rise in both metrics.

Last iteration of the same graph👇
bsky.app/profile/diss...

15 game rolling averages for Expected goals for(xG) and against(xGA) in La Liga from the 2021-22 season(data: fbref.com)

15 game rolling averages for Expected goals for(xG) and against(xGA) in La Liga from the 2021-22 season(data: fbref.com). 👇

Flick's arrival has seen a clear rise in xG(created) but it has also coincided with a rise in xGA(conceded) however with a superior xGD;
...

The aim for the season wasn't trophies anyway, development and minute management of the youngsters and playing good football was the target, unfortunately so far we have once again failed in the first bit driving the young players into the ground for no real gain.

therefore only a miraculous run in the 2nd half of the season and opponents collapsing would see us regain the lead back.

I don't see that happening unfortunately and that means the focus should then shift to the Copa del Rey and Champions League depending on the draws.

The match against Atleti is extremely pivotal for Flick's side moving forward in the league. Lose that and you will be 6 points behind Atleti and 5 behind Madrid if they win their games in hand.

We will lose more points across the season, it's very evident in the way we play...

Top 2 on a tactical level, perhaps but on a personnel level, not really. In a sport decided by moments and game breaking ability, what's the point of being at the top if you can't impose it.

In game images of the same:

The best part of the half was that there weren't many Gittens vs Kounde matchups, one that was(part of the previous sequence of play), Gittens outpaces Kounde to find Guirassy in this spot, he misses the chance obviously.

Next time? 45', Can carries the ball to find Guirassy free, Inigo doesn't read the situation and Kounde for some reason is higher which forces Cubarsi to be attentive to Gittens. It's good that Guirassy didn't pick his head up and look for Sabitzer there.

At about 41', when Dortmund bypassed our press, Reyna was found free in the middle not picked up which led to a 2v1 on Kounde's side, Bensebaini's cross into the box involved the questionable penalty decision on Inigo's tug on Guirassy.

importantly(something we discussed in the pre-game thread, bsky.app/profile/diss...) whose marking depended on how Raphinha pressed who either stayed with Ryerson, leaving Can time on the ball or when he pushed up on Can, Balde followed up on Ryerson while Inigo on Duranville.

Dortmund built with a single pivot(Nmecha, picked by Olmo) Lewa stayed on Schlotterbeck, Lamine deeper on Bensebaini, Kounde on Gittens, m2m in the midfield and the most interesting bit, the dynamic positioning of Raphinha and Balde most...

About our pressing shape, Flick adapted in this game, changed how we usually setup, which involves both wingers pressing the two opposition CB's and Lewa with Olmo picking their two pivots, and our fullbacks pushing onto the opposition fullbacks.

bsky.app/profile/diss...

We also had better means to play through Dortmund's press(which wasn't all that intense), either by Pedri moving to wide left to receive, Inigo driving forward at times to find Olmo btl or Raphinha on the left touchline to receive the pass from Balde, etc.

Will start with Schlotterbeck, whose over aggressiveness was pivotal in our early chances(poorly executed jumps) and consequently why(possibly) we had control for a lot of the first half. Our few early half chances perhaps helped push BVB in a more conservative 442 shape

Observations from the Dortmund game, UCL MD 6(first half):

Short 🧵⬇️.

If we turn up with the same pressing structure as we always do, against Dortmund, we might get smashed to smithereens as it would very well play into Dortmund's strengths.

🧵👇

As I've explained over on the twitter, this move, i.e. the sale of VIP tickets isn't going to move the needle by much, so yes it would not be enough to register them both.

bsky.app/profile/thea...

We'd be better served by utilising whatever margin we are preparing for him in January on a creative LW on loan that would actually be available.

Olmo has played 12/22 games so far and started in 7 of them, with 6 G+A after us having paid €47M+ for him in a dire financial situation.

Problems that we have created for ourselves, by this board alone. Olmo has featured in 12/22 games so far starting in only 7 of them.

Yep, unfortunately that's true but we need some semblance of adaptability from Flick asap, or else things might just fall off the cliff.

Maybe not pressing all the time & dropping a bit might be the key against Dortmund who are a team that thrives on transitional moments to score.

Got the idea to do this after watching some of Dom and Dev's preview, would definitely suggest a watch.

x.com/DKostanjsak/...

Ofc no system is perfect as this relies on us winning the ball in the air and mopping up the second balls but if nothing works(has to be recognised soon enough), we should(not done so far by Flick) drop into the traditional mid/low block for some spells of the game.

Raphina would join the midfielders initially and Balde's marking would depend on where the pass is going, if Kobel passes to Can, both Balde(on Ryerson) and Raphinha(on Can) advance, Lewa takes a position b/w Kobel and Nico and both Olmo and Lamine shift across.

Though not perfect, I'd like us to try something like this:

Almost the same setup as before but m2m across the back line but with Casado FREE, to cover spaces and win the second balls, to clean up any long pass after it's been brought down.

This would also create holes into our backline which could be found out by Kobel directly launching a ball into space behind our backline to find wingers running into space. Something which only have one clear winner.
So, what's the solution?