Michael Davidson

Important perspective on the positives and negatives of geopolitical contest on decarbonization.

Guest post: What an ‘ambitious’ 2035 electricity target looks like for China - Carbon Brief China’s power sector is both the world’s largest emitter and the largest source of clean-energy growth, making it essential to global climate efforts.

Read the Carbon Brief post on our article: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-w...

The paper is open access: www.cell.com/cell-reports...

Co-authors: @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social, Ziheng Zhu, Xi Lu, and Da Zhang (Tsinghua)

To translate these large capacity numbers to generation and fossil displacement, need more efforts on integration- interconnection, transmission bottlenecks, efficient dispatch & markets, esp cross-provincial. Without these, even more capacity will be needed for ~ 50% wind+solar share by 2035.

While emissions caps central to global climate governance, complementary policies in China's context help mobilize resources and guide state-owned enterprises and local gov planning & investment. Given evolving renewable energy supports in Document 136, this is essential to keep clean energy pace.

This translates to ~ 40% wind and solar generation share by 2030 and 50% by 2035. Non-fossil generation reaching 50% by 2030 and 70-80% by 2035. In total, we found wind+solar capacity should be 3000-3800 GW. Hence, China's wind+solar NDC is upper range of what is needed for broader climate effort.

Earlier this year, together with researchers from Tsinghua University, we examined how wind and solar targets must evolve to align with climate scenarios. Under these scenarios, China’s power sector emissions would need to fall from roughly 5,000 MtCO₂ today to between 3,300–3,800 MtCO₂ by 2035.

On the power sector, China has opted for a total wind and solar capacity target, striving to reach 3600 GW. This represents an acceleration over the previous 1200 GW by 2030 target, and is more in line with deployment trends over the last 5 years.

Many observers will note the underwhelming emissions target. There will be more analyses on how far from a 2C scenario--some have noted 30%. For non fossil fuel share reaching 30%, assuming this is primary energy, with higher rates of electrification plus clean energy, it is possible to exceed this.

China's new climate NDC targets delivered today by Xi Jinping to UN climate summit, by 2035, include:
- Reduce economy wide net GHG emissions by 7% - 10% from peak levels, striving to do better
- Increase non fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 30%
- Expand wind and solar capacity to 3600 GW

China's new NDC per XJP at UN, by 2035:
1. Reduce economy wide net GHG by 7% - 10% from peak levels, striving to do better
2. Increase non fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 30%
3. Expand wind and solar capacity to 6x of 2020 levels, striving to bring total to 3600 GW

Climate Summit 2025 To accelerate momentum, the UN Secretary-General will host a Special High-Level Event on Climate Action on 24 September 2025, as a platform for leaders to present their new Nationally Determined Contr...

Listening to the UN climate summit now. Xi Jinping speaking now via video. webtv.un.org/en/asset/k12...

Power Transformation Lab The Power Transformation Lab at the University of California, San Diego studies the engineering and institutional requirements of deploying low-carbon energy at scale

I’m deeply grateful to everyone in my lab (past and present) who have supported me and each other on this journey. And thankful to my mentors, collaborators and colleagues--I look forward to continuing to build solutions for a more sustainable energy future.

Connect with us! pwrlab.org

Together, we’re advancing research in the U.S., China, Southeast Asia, and India on:
⚡ Tackling power sector greening
⚡ Modeling political economy challenges of energy transitions
⚡ Finding solutions to clean tech trade and supply chains issues

where we study the engineering implications, institutional conflicts, and global value chains inherent in deploying low-carbon energy at scale. I’m fortunate to work with amazing students, and colleagues and partners across academia, government, industry, and civil society.

🌟 Excited to share that I’ve been appointed Associate Professor at the UC San Diego, tenured in both Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (Jacobs) and School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS). Deeply fortunate to have a home to build up our interdisciplinary Power Transformation Lab...

A journal article in iScience titled "Critical Mineral Bottlenecks Constrain Sub-Technology Choices in Low-Carbon Energy Deployment".

While countries aim to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, a recent study in @cp-iscience.bsky.social assesses the critical mineral demand needed to meet this target and examines how mineral bottlenecks affect clean tech: www.cell.com/iscience/ful...

This study was led by UCSD MAE PhD student @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social and collaborators at Tsinghua University, Ziheng Zhu, Xi Lu, Da Zhang. #CleanEnergy #EnergyPolicy #energysky #ClimateAction #RenewableEnergy #China

As countries release their new NDCs this year, China's decisions could shape the pace and ambition of global efforts. Explore all the details, along with access to our data and modeling code: github.com/Power-Lab/Ce...

6️⃣ Critical infrastructure investments in transmission and storage are essential to accommodate the rapid growth of renewables. Without enhanced coordination, integrated planning and expanded infrastructure, China’s grid may face constraints, risking renewable curtailment and reliability issues.

5️⃣ Third, adopting a broader clean energy generation target (including hydro, nuclear, and biomass) of over 60% by 2030 and 70%-80% by 2035 is achievable and strategically beneficial.

4️⃣ Second, introducing explicit wind and solar generation share targets—eg achieving ~ 40% by 2030 and reaching 50% by 2035—would provide clear guidance to maintain momentum toward 2060 carbon neutrality.

3️⃣ Our study recommends several sets of possible targets for China to set its sights high on RE. First, renewable energy capacity targets: 2030 goal could rise from 1,200 GW to at least 2,200 GW, and by 2035 an ambitious target of 2,800 GW by 2035 to ensure robust progress toward climate goals.

2️⃣ Wind and solar energy's role in China’s electricity mix will grow dramatically—from 17.9% in 2024 to 41%–46% by 2030, and further to 49%–56% by 2035. This substantial increase underscores the pivotal role renewable energy will play in China’s decarbonization efforts.

1️⃣ Consistent with a 2ºC scenario, China will need to significantly scale its wind and solar installations. We project requirements of 2,350–2,780 GW by 2030 and increasing to 2,910–3,800 GW by 2035.

Ratcheting up wind and solar targets for decarbonizing the power sector in China and beyond As countries are releasing their 2035 nationally determined contributions (NDCs), we examine the renewable deployment requirements for China to meet i…

🚨 New study alert 🚨 What renewable energy targets should China adopt in its forthcoming climate targets? Our latest research in @CellRepSustain provides a roadmap for reducing emissions in China's power sector by 2035. 🧵 Dive into our key findings below 👇 
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

GitHub - Power-Lab/NatureComms_Market_Coordination_2025 Contribute to Power-Lab/NatureComms_Market_Coordination_2025 development by creating an account on GitHub.

More details, code, and data available here:
github.com/Power-Lab/Na... . Lab members Fikri Kucuksayacigil and @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social led this study. #CleanEnergy #EnergyPolicy #energysky #ClimateAction

6️⃣ Key takeaway: Market coordination is crucial, but the political reality makes this challenging. States benefit from even partial coordination—suggesting practical steps can significantly support climate goals.

5️⃣ Robust planning matters. Locationally dependent resources (RE and storage deployments) are sensitive to policy uncertainty. States with clearer clean-energy targets have nearly double the renewable build-out compared to states with uncertain policies. While firm resources are more robust.

4️⃣ Transmission vs storage? It's complicated. Coordination leads to bigger transmission networks: lines expand by up to 149% under optimal coordination. But reaching net zero requires more storage than transmission relative to current state policy.

3️⃣ While large, these aggregate regional cost savings are a few %, but state-level deployment and savings can differ by an order of magnitude. Policy alignment across states matters—a lot. Based on grid planning, resources in different states become economical.