Neil Thomas 牛犇

Xi’s Personal Priorities: What Matters Most to China’s Leader? Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering analyze official statements about President Xi Jinping’s actions to determine what issues China’s leader cares most about.

What matters most to Xi Jinping? What policies does he drive himself?

In a new paper, #CenterforChinaAnalysis fellows @neilthomas123.bsky.social and Lobsang Tsering analyze Xi’s priorities using a CCA-compiled database of actions and policies Xi has personally initiated. ⬇️

Honored to join the third fellowship cohort of the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations

Look forward to working with this amazing group as I prepare a policy paper on backchannel diplomacy

Kudos to @neysunm.bsky.social and Amy Gadsden at Penn Global for leading this project!

The obsession with trade deficits, manufacturing jobs...Trump clearly has China envy.

So we had @neilthomas123.bsky.social and @katelogan.bsky.social, two top China industrial strategy experts, on the pod. They played our riskgame and told us what we got right, wrong, and everything in-between

🇨🇳 Zhu Qin has been promoted to Deputy Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission - Wang Yi's deputy.

Zhu was Minister and Deputy Head of Mission of the Chinese Embassy in the UK 🇬🇧 from 2016-2018.

(H/T to @neilthomas123.bsky.social who really needs to post more often on here...)

Webinar: Key Takeaways from China’s Two Sessions in 2025 Watch a webinar co-hosted by the Center for China Analysis and the South China Morning Post featuring Neil Thomas and Lizzi C. Lee in conversation with Chow Chung-yan.

WATCH: In a new webinar co-hosted with @scmpnews.bsky.social, CCA fellows @neilthomas123.bsky.social and Lizzi C. Lee join SCMP Executive Director Chow Chung-yan to discuss key insights from China's recent Two Sessions.

YouTube video by Asia Society The Two Sessions: What Will China Do on Stimulus, Trade Wars, and Tech Competition?

📺WATCH: Our experts from the Center for #China Analysis
@hotpotwhynot.bsky.social, @neilthomas123.bsky.social, Lizzi C. Lee, and Guoguang Wu unpack China’s Two Sessions, Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report, China's growth targets, and more in a new panel discussion. ⬇️

Cheers Jeremy!

What to Watch at China’s Two Sessions in 2025 As Beijing readies for next week’s Two Sessions, Neil Thomas and Jing Qian highlight key watchpoints in economic policy, elite politics, and U.S.-China relations.

A good explainer on China's refreshingly boring big annual political gathering which takes place next week, by @neilthomas123.bsky.social and @jingqian.bsky.social

China 2025: What To Watch China 2025: What to Watch is CCA's annual flagship report, forecasting China’s prospects and highlighting the most important developments to watch in the coming year.

Read the full report here:

asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

14/14

China’s Public Health Challenges Will Present Risks and Opportunities

"The confluence of heightened chronic disease incidence, demographic headwinds, and domestic policy challenges has brought [China’s health system] to the edge of functionality"

Patrick Beyrer & Bob T. Li

13/14

The Year of Complex Challenges Will Intensify the Need for Robust Climate Action

"[China's] carbon emissions will finally plateau, but as the country struggles with an economic slowdown, more forceful policies to decrease emissions may be difficult"

Li Shuo

12/14

Risk of Volatility Will Loom Large Across the Taiwan Strait

"The risk of volatility in the Taiwan Strait will remain high over the next four years, as Beijing currently has no intention of resuming contact with Taiwan under the Lai administration"

Rorry Daniels

11/14

U.S.-China Diplomatic Divide Will Widen

"Each side portrays the other as intent on undermining their fundamental national security interests, and this rhetoric reinforces perceptions that the other side seeks to 'dominate' in a contest"

Lyle Morris

10/14

Beijing Will Struggle to Manage Relations with the New U.S. Administration

"Whether the U.S.-China relationship remains intact will depend on whether China perceives U.S. actions as setting the stage for a deal or ... unilateral decoupling"

Rick Waters

9/14

Economic Slowdown and Post-COVID Challenges Will Continue to Drive People Toward Religion

"Narratives of national pride and cultural rejuvenation no longer align with ordinary citizens’ lived experiences ... more people are turning to religion & spirituality"

John Osburg

8/14

COVID-19’s Impact on Society Will Linger

"People are now more pessimistic and uncertain ... A persistent lack of confidence in the country’s leadership and institutions will complicate Beijing’s efforts to achieve its economic and social development goals."

G.A. Donovan

7/14

Tensions Over Industrial Policy and Trade Will Escalate

"China is shifting from investment-led growth to technological self-reliance, with semiconductors, electric vehicles, biotechnology, and advanced manufacturing leading the way"

Lizzi C. Lee

6/14

China Will Continue to Develop New Quality Productive Forces

"The meaning of the [NQPF] concept — and hence the means by which China plans to realize it — will evolve through further elaboration in party documents and official speeches"

Qiheng Chen

5/14

Significant Fiscal Reform Initiatives Are in the Pipeline

"The fiscal system is in dire straits .. Measures announced since the plenum, such as the use of special bonds .. will certainly help, but they will need to be complemented by structural reforms"

@berthofmanecon.bsky.social

4/14

Internal Party Governance Challenges Will Intensify

"Balancing the trade-off between political control and elite incentives will be a major challenge in 2025 ... promotion of young cadres and more intense factional competition may serve [Xi's] interests"

Guoguang Wu

3/14

Pressure Will Grow Between Xi’s Political Power and His Ability to Deliver Results

"However, Xi’s own decision-making remains a key variable, as he has shown a degree of ideological flexibility when it serves his own political interests."

By myself and Lobsang Tsering

2/14

NEW @asiasociety.org volume on China in 2025

"The coming year will prove pivotal in testing Beijing’s resilience and adaptability"

—Is Xi's position secure?
—Can China's economy recover?
—How will Trump affect foreign policy?
—Much more!

Highlights of each chapter below...

1/14

What to watch out for in China next year?

Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis is launching our annual report in New York on Tuesday, with Kevin Rudd giving a keynote address.

Friends in New York: there are a few spots left, please message me if interested!

Global Public Opinion on China Global Public Opinion on China (GPOC) aggregates worldwide polling data to better inform public debates and support China-related decision-making among the world’s governments and policy communities, ...

Check out the full product by the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis:

asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

And the introductory essay by Andrew Chubb on which these posts are mostly based

asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

20/20

Another finding is that public opinion research on China has been growing globally

The chart below shows how the number of national surveys asking views of China has increased along with China's rising international profile

This product brings them all together

19/20

Finally, Latin America has traditionally held very positive views of China

But since Covid, there has been a big drop in sentiment, especially in Argentina and Brazil, although average LatAm favorability remains positive

2007: +32
2012: +41
2017: +33
2022: +6
2024: +11

18/20

China is also viewed relatively favorably in the Middle East and North Africa

Less so than in Sub-Saharan Africa but a slight bump in favorability recently compared to 10-15 years ago

2007: +18
2012: +5
2017: +5
2022: +9
2024: +9

17/20

Where China really shines is Sub-Saharan Africa

Consistently high net-positive favorability ratings for the last two decades

Slight dip in the average as China became a bigger economic player, but still very popular

2007: +54
2012: +56
2017: +40
2022: +38
2024: +39

16/20

Here is a chart of opinion polls on China in India

Indian respondents hold increasingly negative views of China, especially since the deadly border clash in 2020

15/20

South Asia is a mixed bag. Big change is plummeting favorability in India.

To generalize, since 2020, many negative polls from India, many positive polls from PK/BAN/SL

Huge region by population but small number of countries, so "region"-level data not so informative

14/20