Maximilian Boeck

New at JIE: "Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?" by Maximilian Boeck (@mboeck.bsky.social), Lorenzo Mori

doi.org/10.1016/j.ji...

We are organizing a workshop on "Heterogeneous Macro Expectations – New Evidence and Theory" at the FAU Nuremberg on Sept 11-12th. Keynote by Chris Roth.

Submission deadline is April 30th, 2025. See the CfP: www.statistik.rw.fau.de/files/2025/0...

We are looking forward to your submissions!

Welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen Folgen haben höhere Gaspreise? Die westlichen Industriestaaten erlebten zuletzt eine Hochinflationsphase, die es in dieser Intensität schon lange nicht mehr gegeben hat. Was wir daraus lernen können.

📑 Lesetipp: Welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen Folgen haben höhere Gaspreise?

Der Artikel basiert auf der Veröffentlichung v. Thomas Zörner & @mboeck.bsky.social k.bsky.social "Natural Gas Prices, Inflation Expectations & the Pass-Through to Euro Area Inflation" bit.ly/4jDt6Sd

@diepressecom.bsky.social

Thanks again to all the brilliant participants and organizers for making the first day of our workshop a great success!

This reduces the effect on inflation by 15 basis points after one year, pointing to pronounced second-round effects via price setting and wage bargaining.

To distinguish between first- and second-round effects, we conduct a counterfactual analysis, in which we impose that inflation expectations are insensitive to natural gas price shocks.

We find that inflation and inflation expectations are indeed sensitive to natural gas price shocks. A 10% increase in natural gas prices raises inflation by 8 basis points on impact. Inflation increases further to 22 basis points after about one year, suggesting a role for second-round effects.

Short summary: In this article, we investigate the recent hike in energy prices, in particular natural gas prices, and how it affects inflation expectations and inflation in the euro area.

Happy to share that our research article "Natural gas prices, inflation expectations, and the pass-through to euro area inflation" (joint work with Thomas Zörner, @oenb.at) just appeared in the new issue of Energy Economics. Link: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...

Congrats!!

importance of different belief formation mechanisms. We examine differences in the contemporaneous effects when we identify the model via a set of belief formation mechanisms.

Check out the paper!

pessimistic credit market environment. While an unexpected movement in the optimistic regime leads to a rather muted impact on output and credit, we find a significant negative impact on these variables in the pessimistic regime. In the paper we also investigate the

we investigate whether and how credit market sentiment and investor beliefs affect key macroeconomic variables. We are particularly interested in asymmetries in the transmission channel. An unexpected credit market sentiment shock has different impacts in an optimistic and

Very happy that our paper 'The Impact of Credit Market Sentiment Shocks' (together with Thomas Zörner, OeNB) is now forthcoming at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. It was a long journey! In the paper, 👇

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....