Rebecca Stuart

An interesting presentation by SNB President Martin Schlegel at the 2025 SNB Watchers conference this afternoon.

www.snb.ch/en/publicati...

📢 Virtual Workshop on French Economic History

At 5:00 pm CET, @zhexunmo.bsky.social (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, CUNY) will present:

“Soldiers versus Laborers: Legacies of Colonial Military Service and Forced Labor in Mali”

Interested in joining? Email me for the Zoom link.

Blowing Up the Second-Largest Swiss Bank The 1933 rescue of the Schweizerische Volksbank

I began looking into how Swiss banks fared in the Great Depression and found a paper on the near failure of the Schweizerische Volksbank in 1933. It deserves wider attention, so I decided to write a post based on it.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/blowing-up...

Recruitment of new Executive Board member initiated The General Council of the Riksbank has decided to begin a recruitment process for a new member of the Executive Board of the Riksbank. The General Council also

The Riksbank is looking for a new Deputy Governor. Central banks should advertise all senior positions — if the pool is restricted to insiders there can be no presumption that the best possible candidate is appointed.

www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...

Governor Miran’s first speech Has the neutral rate fallen sharply?

Stephen Miran, the Fed’s newest governor, used his first speech to argue that the neutral rate has plunged after this year’s sharp shift in US economic policy. It is a striking claim — and it raises the obvious question: is he right?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/governor-m...

The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006* Abstract. We construct the first annual market rent and home sales price series for American cities over the 20th century using 2.7 million newspaper real

Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006,” by Lyons (@ronanlyons), Shertzer (@econhist-allday), Gray (@econhistoryorbust), and Agorastos: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Extraordinary news: Joel Mokyr has won the Nobel for his work on the Industrial Revolution. Entirely deserved, though in truth, he ought to win another for his work on the Great Irish Famine, which transformed how we think about Ireland’s nineteenth century and the economic history of catastrophe.

The MAS at the Crossroads Decision finely balanced, but patience likely to prevail for now

In today’s post, I look at the upcoming decision of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, MAS: swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-mas-at...

Martin Schlegel’s First Year as SNB President A promising start with hopes of more to come

In today’s post, I look at Martin Schlegel’s excellent first year as SNB president.

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/martin-sch...

Paris

Manuscript done ✅ Off to production at Bloomsbury!

The book revisits Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations at 250, rethinking prosperity through inclusive wealth & sustainability

More soon… 📖✨

Paper two presented by Emma Horgan @ucc.ie Discusses the effect of uncertainty on a range of newly constructed historical data series from 1945, paper with @seanekh.bsky.social and @a-fergal.bsky.social

@eoinaldo.bsky.social kicks of the Irish Macrohist workshop 2025 in @ucc.ie “Explaining the retreat of the Irish Language Fronteir”, paper with @cliochris.bsky.social and Alan Fernihough

@seanekh.bsky.social’s @ucc.ie paper presents a new improved Quarterly Irish GDP series from 1950, written with @rebstuart.bsky.social, as part of this @researchireland.ie pathways project on “External Shocks and Fiscal Sustainability”

Quick comment: Swiss inflation in August Seasonal adjustment reveals summer uptick

Seasonally adjusted data show that Swiss inflation has strengthened over the summer, with annualised three-month inflation now running at about 1%. This suggests that underlying inflation is firmer than the annual figures imply.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...

Evening stroll

Could the US Default on its Public Debt? Lessons from 1933 Source: Federal Reserve Board.

A US default may sound implausible. History shows it is not unprecedented. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/could-the-...

One-year visiting position for advanced female postdocs in Dresden. I am happy to host anyone broadly interested in applied micro. Salary within the German public sector's pay scale (TV-L, E13-E15). Deadline: Sept 15, 2025. Please share widely! 👇

New Inflation Data Point to an RBA Cut Punchline: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by holding rates steady in July, but the decision seems more understandable in hindsight given the limited CPI data available at the time.

Today I take a look at inflation in Australia and the upcoming RBA meeting. Expect a 25 bps cut.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/new-inflat...

When virtue is its own reward: the July RBA MPB minutes Plus, the August TACO value pack

This is a very good read about monetary policy in Australia by @insteconomics.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...

What is the richest country in the world in 2025? Our annual ranking compares economies in three different ways

Given the CSO's pioneering work to develop true measures of national well-being in a globalized world economy, Ireland can feel a little bit cheated at being left out! For those curious, GNI* in 2024 was 57% of GDP. Following that thru, it would place Ireland ~10th, level with Germany.

Interest Rate Differentials and the Swiss Franc 2.0 Punchline: In an earlier post, I found little evidence that the SNB–ECB policy rate spread drives the CHF/euro exchange rate, likely because the ECB’s unconventional policies make its policy rate a po...

In today’s post, I return to the question of interest rate spreads and the exchange rate of the Swiss Franc against the euro. Two-year spreads work much better than policy rate spreads, perhaps because of QE in the euro area.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/interest-r...

The ECB’s Strategy Assessment: What is new and what is missing? Source: ECB

In today’s post I look at the ECB’s Strategy Assessment. As expected, no major changes but it missed an opportunity to spell out how its thinking about unconventional monetary policy has changed now that the side effects have become clearer.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-ecbs-s...

Quick comment: Swedish Inflation Surprises on the Upside Punchline: the flash CPI data for June were unexpectedly strong.

A quick comment about the Swedish flash CPI data that came yesterday.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...

Very important any work here done by @seanekh.bsky.social in @ucc.ie under his @researchireland.ie pathways project, with @rebstuart.bsky.social, on developing Long Run high quality data on the Irish economy. I’m always amazed that data like this didn’t already exist, great to have it now!

A must-read open letter from Fields Medalists working in Switzerland.

Cutting annual budgets for education and research is always a short-sighted mistake. Even a bigger mistake now when there is a unique opportunity to attract top global talent from the US.

science-under-threat.com

Interest Rate Differentials and the Swiss Franc Punchline: It is often believed the spread between SNB and ECB policy rates is a key determinant of the CHF/euro exchange rate.

Is the spread between the SNB’s and the ECB’s policy rates a driver of the exchange rate between the Swiss franc and the euro? Perhaps not so much!
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/interest-r...

What determines electoral success in Ireland? Evidence from the last 30 years says being a woman reduces re-election chances by ten percentage points. Don't be in the out-going government (unless you're a Senior Minister). And Being Junior Minister, it turns out, does nothing.