Philip Brohan

Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures Barometers and ocean data reproduce global land warming Conclusions based on large-area averages of land temperatures are robust

It's not just the UK - global land temperatures can be independently confirmed - agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

A poster demomstrating an extension to the well-known climate stripes graphic.

The future of scientific publishing is YouTube, Github, Medium, Substack, ...
I don't see much of that in the agenda.

MeteoSaver v1.0: a machine-learning based software for the transcription of historical weather data Abstract. Archives of observed weather data present unique opportunities for scientists to obtain long time series of the historical climate for many regions of the world. Unfortunately, most of these...

MeteoSaver v1.0: a machine-learning based software for the transcription of historical weather data

Preprint in open discussion: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

This is a work of art.

It is easy to come up with designs for ground-breaking climate models using ML.
The thing that's very hard is to come up with a ML climate model that looks and operates like an NWP model.
If we can find the courage to move on from NWP, then the future is bright indeed.

They only use ERA5 at all because they are doing NWP imitation. Eventually they will realise that to forecast London precip. (say) an AI model doesn’t have to bother with the whole NWP state vector.
Then we’ll start to see real improvements.

The really interesting result is the reduced observational requirement for DA. How far can we push that?

You could build a model without ERA5 - train it on satellite data, in-situ observations, or what you will. There just isn't much point.

While all the AI models use ERA5, they don't require it.
It really is a supercomputer-free forecasting system.

A screenshot of two application windows open next to each other. On the left is a scanned page of handwritten ocean temperature data from March 1952, and on the right is a Google sheet with most of the data transcribed. There are missing values in places, but the digital data is very accurate.

I'm always looking for ways to make it faster to transcribe historical data, & structured handwritten text has been a real challenge. I just tested Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash model on some Monterey Bay temperature data from 1952. I'm pretty impressed! Not perfect, but better than a blank page. 🌊

Delighted to announce I have taken on a joint position between the Met Office and the University of Leeds:

Research Scientist | Met Office Hadley Centre
Associate Professor | University of Leeds

Looking forward to getting to work on this.

See news article below 👇

Using machine learning to help reconstruct changes in extreme rainfall over British & Irish Isles at University of Reading on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Using machine learning to help reconstruct changes in extreme rainfall over British & Irish Isles at University of Reading, listed on FindAPhD.com

Want to do a PhD in climate, with a focus on using machine learning to recover millions of lost weather observations and so better reconstruct climatic changes over the past century?

Open to students from UK and Ireland, funded through @climatecocentre.bsky.social.

www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

🔭 How accurate are historic sea surface temperatures?

NOC's Dr Elizabeth Kent MBE (@lizk40.bsky.social) gives us a rundown and explores a particularly puzzling cold feature on #NOCIntoTheBlue.

Watch, listen and subscribe NOW 🎧 linktr.ee/nocintotheblue

The state vector describing reality has way too many dimensions.
What else can we do?

Google AI Studio Google AI Studio is the fastest way to start building with Gemini, our next generation family of multimodal generative AI models.

I won't be following up myself (the data I'm after is almost all in tables). But I do urge you to give it a go - point your browser at aistudio.google.com upload your image and start asking. It could hardle be easier to experiment with.

And as so often it's not perfect, but it's very promising. Definitely worth looking into.

No.

But since you ask.
I've uploaded a page from "A Collection of Voyages Chiefly in the Southern Atlantick Ocean" books.google.co.uk/books?id=sGx...

And asked Gemini a couple of questions:

Gemini 2.0: Flash, Flash-Lite and Pro The Gemini 2.0 model family is now updated, to include the production-ready Gemini 2.0 Flash, the experimental Gemini 2.0 Pro, and Gemini 2.0 Flash Lite.

I was thinking that maybe in a couple of months there would be an upgrade to Gemini that we should experiment with.

I made insufficient allowance for 'AI time'. An update has come out today -
developers.googleblog.com/en/gemini-2-...

I don't know if it makes any difference.

All the code is available at the link, and Gemini's free tier is enough to experiment with.

Go on - give it a try.

" We can say with some confidence that we are better at reading the logs than the original log-keepers were at writing them."

I think we are very close to being able to replace the 'we' with 'AIs'.

Better than the Defence. One question I’m asked again and again by people encountering OldWeather for the first time is ‘How accurate are the transcriptions?’. We’ve known for a while that the answe…

oldweather.wordpress.com/2011/03/31/b...

This Climate Visualization Belongs in a Damn Museum

In 2018, @blkahn.bsky.social said that the warming stripes graphic 'belongs in a damn museum', even suggesting that it was 'fit for the Museum of Modern Art' (see gizmodo.com/this-climate...).

Well...

Later this month, they will appear in the Museum of Modern Art: press.moma.org/exhibition/p...

Details: brohan.org/Posters/post...

Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea

In honour of today's #ShippingForecast centenary, here's a weather map of December's #StormDarragh - made out of the associated shipping forecast.

Congratulations to Prof. Phil Jones (UEA) for receiving an OBE for services to climatology!

Well deserved and long overdue recognition for his efforts over many decades to collate and analyse observational records of climatic changes.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/676a8b...

And, amazing to see @lizk40.bsky.social receive an MBE for services to tracking global temperatures. Richly deserved for all her efforts over decades!

Today at #AGU24: In a session co-chaired by BE's @hausfath.bsky.social, @rarohde.bsky.social will be diving into the factors, both well-defined and more unexpected, that contributed to 2023's record-setting ("gobsmackingly bananas") extreme heat.

Find us at:

📍GC23K-02 / Salon A
⏰ 14:21 - 14:33

Yes, but we've made reconstructions of the period before: Here's one from cp.copernicus.org/articles/8/1...
I think this is the first time I've seen a square-wave signal.

Great stuff - though I'm a touch suspicious of those steep gradients back in the early C19.

Where do I download the dataset from?

ML offers the potential to learn a relationship between SST and *any* observable. How far can we puch that?