Model was way off on Malik Willis but I can live with that -- probably one of the hardest situations to predict.
Only missed by a couple million on Linderbaum, which I feel great about considering historic nature of his contract!
And another shoutout for @overthecap.bsky.social making the data accessible via nflreadr!
Initial results comparing my FA contract model's predictions to actual results for contracts OTC has so far. Model is based primarily on media rankings.
Very happy with these results!
A testament to @greggrosenthal.bsky.social, @profootballfocus.bsky.social, Matt Bowen and Daniel Popper, too!
We're up to 50 transactions in my free agency and trade grades story here. Including Daniel Jones and Trey Hendrickson contracts from earlier today!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
"it'll be too obvious if we announce it the same night let's wait until 9 a.m. ET tomorrow"
hypothetically
lol
ok!
Ravens: A
Raiders: C
should I grade the ravens not trading two firsts for maxx crosby now
would be hilarious if the cowboys call up the packers right now and tell 'em actually we don't want rashan gary anymore
we were waiting on the actual trade details but have them now. I'm writing it as we speak!
I named like 6 other non-rookie QBs they could have tried for!
free agency grades! lots of 'em!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Check the Oweh and Mafe forecasts 😈😈😈
grades grades grades grades grades grades grades
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Vast majority of the time "market-setting" contracts are not actually. It's just reflective of cap inflation.
But Linderbaum's contract VERY MUCH is.
If we put past contracts into 2026 dollars, the previous high at center since 2011 was Ragnow in 2021 at $22.3M APY per OTC.
Linderbaum got $27M.
Feel good about this one: model had Wan'Dale at $19.4M per year. He got $19.5!
bsky.app/profile/seth...
More than for most players the fully guaranteed at signing number is what matters for Willis.
If he fails, it's what the Dolphins will pay. If he succeeds, they'll have to give him a new contract anyway.
that is one of the extremes where it could matter because not only is the dead cap so high but also the Eagles are close to maxxed out in terms of restructures available.
It doesn't matter to the acquiring team, though. It could be a reason they wait to trade him post June 1.
I'll be grading trades and free agent signings throughout the day as always. Grades for Minkah Fitzpatrick and Rashan Gary deals are up!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Often times we see, in a transaction, dead cap and current year cap savings. Neither are the number we need to evaluate a deal!
That, coming back to the first post, is the change in cash spending.
Dead cap does not matter for decision-making in the vast majority of transactions.
Because dead cap is just sunk cost. It is descriptive. But outside of extreme cases doesn't matter for what a team should do.
That's because the NFL is a hard-capped league but with significant ability to move space from forward or backwards in time.
When it comes to trade/cut/free agency decisions, the $$ number that matters is the change in cash spending.
What's the difference between how much we pay a player in cash if we keep them or if we cut/trade them?
What matters is *how much* you pay a player, not when that money hits the cap.
Only $9.1M. It was light there, knew it was going to be.
I wrote more about this model a few days ago here: bsky.app/profile/seth...
Let's try this again: Just ahead of free agency, here are the top 90 APY predictions from my media-rankings-based free agency contract model. Updated to remove signed free agents, add newly-added free agents, and reflect latest rankings.
OK I think this is better
I realize image is blurry. It's getting compressed in bluesky, I think, and tall image doesn't work well. Working on trying to fix.
Just ahead of free agency, here are the top 90 APY predictions from my media-rankings-based free agency contract model. Updated to remove signed free agents, add newly-added free agents, and reflect latest rankings.
