Seth Walder

He eventually lucked into the right choice via penalty

Dave Canales failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌

"Collecting that experience" is an incredible euphemism for "Asking a guy about the fact that more than a dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct"

He threw one interception, which came on 1st-and-10 and therefore was extra costly. Though it was just one turnover, because Sanders had only 24 action plays he still recorded a high 4.3% turnover rate.

Sanders also provided zero rushing value: he had no designed runs and no scrambles.

Note that Jerry Jeudy’s fumble on a reception does not count against Sanders.

Keep in mind that in QBR, an 8-yard pass on 3rd-and-11 – like Sanders had in the third quarter – is a negative play for the quarterback.

And Sanders only converted a third down where he threw past the sticks one time (the deep pass to Bond).

Though Sanders had three big plays, one of them was a 66-yard screen he receives very little credit for in QBR.

And the volume of negative plays significantly outweighed his positive plays: 18 to 6.

Despite leading Week 12 in yards per attempt (10.4) thus far, Shedeur Sanders recorded the lowest QBR (8.7).
Why the discrepancy?

We took a look.

Updated draft pick forecast!

Four teams with a double-digit chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick.

Who will win the NFC North?

Bears still lead in the standings but remain less likely than the Packers or Lions.

it does not!

Updated playoff seeding forecast from FPI!

That's really not the right way to look at it at all but also:

I would say it worked two of three times today.

Like, the Jaguars failed and surrendered the tying FG. But that's exactly the point: it's only the *tying* field goal. You still can win.

not for indoors, but the kicking conversion rates adjust dynamically so implicitly yes on K-Ball

Why are those first two numbers almost identical?

Because:

A. FG = kicking off to Detroit, giving Lions much better field position.
B. Either way you lose with a Lions TD.
C. Go-Fail means surrendering a FG you are still tied.
D. Teams play sub-optimally conservative when down 3.

One way to see Giants clearly made correct call: their win probability if they kicked would have been almost identical to going for it and failing.

WP Kick: 79.4%
WP Go-Fail: 79.2%
(WP Go-Convert: 98.4%)

QBRs today

Jameis Winston: 83.7
Jared Goff: 21.0

And yet!

...analysis.

And in this case, consider what I wrote in the follow-up tweet. The breakeven % in this instance was just 44%. And every team in the league would easily clear 44% chance to convert on 4th-and-goal from the 1.

no doubt the specific players on the field matter. We take into account relative team and unit strength, but to your point there can be something as specific as whether QB sneak is available or not.

However, that doesn't mean we should just throw up our hands and not use quantitative...(cont.)

No, I don't think so.

4th-and-1 conversion rate, 2015-2024: 67%.

4th-and-1 conversion rate, 2025: 68%.

You could quibble the conversion probability.

But the breakeven probability -- the probability required to justify going for it -- was just 44%. That makes it not just a high-leverage go, but a clear go.

It's not just about 7 points vs. 3 points. It's about the ensuing field position, too.

what do you mean by that?

this was 12 minutes ago

I should be clear though: this is just about the decision to go for it. Not the playcall.

In general throwing deep on 4th-and-1 can be OK, but this is a situation where extra yards were meaningless.

The correct call.

Theme of the day: don't kick to go up 6 unless you like losing by 1.

right on the edge

womp womp!