Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦's Avatar

Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦

@karvelis.bsky.social

Intelligence | Counterinsurgency | Hybrid war | LatAm | documentary photography | tacos | beer. Not necessarily in that order. #SlavaUkraini 🇺🇦

2,291 Followers  |  2,130 Following  |  621 Posts  |  Joined: 30.08.2023
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Posts by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦 (@karvelis.bsky.social)

It's 2031. The Strait of Hormuz is a gauntlet for passing LNG tankers. The US is engaged in yet another conflict in Afghanistan after the Newsom Administration invaded to intercept shipments of Chinese drone components to Iran.

06.03.2026 02:57 — 👍 21    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 1

We were taught that truth is the best weapon.

That if people have access to facts, they'll figure it out.

🧵This turned out to be completely, dangerously wrong

06.02.2026 20:44 — 👍 50    🔁 20    💬 3    📌 5
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US “Irregular” Militias are Recruiting on Major Social Media Platforms Decentralized militias are openly recruiting on Instagram, posting combat training footage while framing themselves as community defense and disaster relief groups. Behind that branding lies Christian...

“CVI is one of many small “irregular” groups promoting, networking, and recruiting openly on major social media platforms like Instagram.”

globalextremism.org/post/us-irre...

03.03.2026 07:28 — 👍 4    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0

Spare a thought for Russians who moved to Dubai to escape our war with Ukraine & are now stuck in the war between our allies, Iran & USA.

02.03.2026 08:59 — 👍 750    🔁 109    💬 29    📌 9
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Beautiful Ukraine inspired street mural in São Paulo, Brazil #streetart #ukraine

01.03.2026 22:30 — 👍 24    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0

Critics of the Iran and Venezuela attacks who warn they will lead to another Iraq or Afghanistan are making the wrong analogy, and don’t grasp how much the failures of Iraq and Afghanistan changed the way the US wages war. The closer model is Israel’s “mowing the grass.” (1/n)

01.03.2026 23:01 — 👍 12    🔁 9    💬 1    📌 2
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Beautiful Ukraine inspired street mural in São Paulo, Brazil #streetart #ukraine

01.03.2026 22:30 — 👍 24    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0
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Collections: Strategic Airpower 101 This week, I’m going to offer a fairly basic overview of the concept of strategic airpower, akin to our discussions of protracted war and nuclear deterrence. While the immediate impetus for t…

Seems like a good moment to re-up my primer on the endless empty promises that strategic airpower can win wars entirely from the air: acoup.blog/2022/10/21/c...

01.03.2026 20:37 — 👍 331    🔁 86    💬 6    📌 6

In addition to #Tehran, we have now also Iranian reports on attacks in the cities of Qom, Isfahan, and Tabriz. #Iran

28.02.2026 07:34 — 👍 3    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0
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From the strategic beer reserve: Monk’s Stout by Dupont.

26.02.2026 23:37 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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La muerte de El Mencho deja a la deriva los negocios del Cartel Jalisco con el ELN, el Clan del Golfo y las disidencias Reportes de inteligencia indican que su mayor aliado es el Clan del Golfo, y que disidencias de las FARC les arriendan laboratorios de cocaína

🔴 El poder de Nemesio Oseguera, El Mencho, líder del Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación, abatido este domingo en Jalisco, deja a la deriva los negocios con algunas estructuras logísticas del narcotráfico en Colombia

24.02.2026 01:30 — 👍 6    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 1
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Mexico may pay a steep price for the killing of Jalisco cartel leader El Mencho The killing of the Jalisco New Generation cartel’s leader is likely to spark a wave violence.

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation cartel’s leader is likely to spark a wave violence.

24.02.2026 06:26 — 👍 6    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0

Govenor of Jalisco: 
 
In agreement with the Security Table, I want to announce the return to classes at all educational levels starting this Wednesday, February 25.  Additionally, we have agreed with business organizations that economic activities will fully resume starting tomorrow.

24.02.2026 01:46 — 👍 24    🔁 5    💬 1    📌 0

La caída de El Mencho como líder del CJNG es importante, pero ni de lejos es el final de nada en México. Eliminar líderes de los grandes carteles no implica la desaparición de mercados, ni redes, ni incentivos económicos

Una victoria para Sheinbaum que abre más preguntas de las que cierra

23.02.2026 10:22 — 👍 4    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0
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Mexican Troops Slay Mencho And His Thugs Set Country On Fire Washington gave intel on CJNG leader; Mexico City ruled he not be taken alive

Truly huge news on death of El Mencho.

-US intel key in locating Mencho
-Mexican forces had ruled shoot to kill
-US pressure to get Mencho before world cup games in Jalisco
-Unclear who replaces Mencho
- Cartel attacks across Mexico massive.

Read here:

www.crashoutmedia.com/p/mexican-tr...

23.02.2026 01:27 — 👍 9    🔁 9    💬 1    📌 2
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Mexican army kills leader of powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel during operation to capture him The Mexican army killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” decapitating what had become Mexico’s most powerful cartel.

It's going to stay (more) violent for a while. Unfortunately, it's likely the Trump admin. will continue to pressure Mexico, which just means more violence.

apnews.com/article/jali... army kills leader of powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel during operation to capture him

23.02.2026 02:39 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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MX Army killed El Mencho today. A win for Sheinbaum. USG is happy too. The Cartel was quick to react setting buses, trucks and businesses on fire, blockading streets and highways. Locals? Terrified. I’m in Guadalajara, a city that virtually emptied out. No public transport, people sheltered in place

23.02.2026 01:49 — 👍 10    🔁 7    💬 1    📌 1

#Jalisco #Guadalajara Vehicle burning and store burning started again about 9pm. They arrested 11 for bloqueos but 14 for opportunistic looting earlier today.

Priests spent sundown on top of their churches praying for peace.

23.02.2026 03:57 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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Los tres círculos que protegían a ‘El Mencho’: Así se escondió por más de una década el líder del CJNG Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes 'El Mencho' contaba con una amplia de red de protección que le permitió mantenerse oculto y al frente del Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG).

"la pregunta fue la misma: ¿cómo logró mantenerse oculto el hombre que dirigía el cártel con mayor expansión territorial en #México?" escribe @elfinancieromx.bsky.social

22.02.2026 23:01 — 👍 3    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0
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Finally breaking my silence on this matter.

Ukrainian forces have launched counterattack operations in the Russian-occupied parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine and almost completely liberated that area from the Russian invasion forces.

22.02.2026 21:07 — 👍 1085    🔁 215    💬 26    📌 17

It bears repeating that Trump’s “special envoy for peace missions” who is responsible for negotiating peace in Ukraine has not visited Ukraine.

22.02.2026 09:00 — 👍 95    🔁 48    💬 3    📌 0
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A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans ...

For the Sunday morning coffee. www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

21.02.2026 22:37 — 👍 5    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Post image 19.02.2026 00:12 — 👍 20    🔁 7    💬 2    📌 0

Don't forget Ukraine

19.02.2026 00:44 — 👍 30    🔁 6    💬 0    📌 0

🧵: Let's talk Iran. Once again, below, is my 2018 professional pub on why going to war w/Iran would be a galactically bad idea.
My February 2026 BLUF: Despite all sorts of changes since 2018, if CENTCOM & SOCOM stick an arm in there, they’re going to pull back a bloody stump. 1/

19.02.2026 00:38 — 👍 116    🔁 44    💬 6    📌 9
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Russia Is Out of Cash Now What?

I wrote another thing! Russia is out of cash, so what happens now?

open.substack.com/pub/thepeopl...

16.02.2026 17:58 — 👍 74    🔁 20    💬 5    📌 1
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I’m quoted in today’s @thetimes.com on the subject of the strange phenomenon of Litvinism

18.02.2026 09:44 — 👍 45    🔁 10    💬 2    📌 2

1/5🧵 #Russia #Ukraine #Europe

More and more academics like @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social now come out and saying the same, load and clear:

#NATO does no longer exist. #US is Europe's adversary.

Some excerpts from her brilliant (as always) piece; ⤵️⤵️

cepa.org/article/a-we...

09.02.2026 19:57 — 👍 34    🔁 18    💬 1    📌 1
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A crucial fact too few Europeans know:

Ukraine produces far more drones and inexpensive cruise missiles than the entire EU combined, yet it still doesn’t have enough.

What does it say about Europe’s capabilities?

We urgently need to step up

17.02.2026 09:24 — 👍 197    🔁 78    💬 8    📌 6
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At the Museum of Occupations and Freedom Fighters in Vilnius, paying tribute to those who refused to bow to oppression.

Today we honour their courage with more than memory. We honour it with action, by defending the freedom and democracy they gave their lives to protect.

17.02.2026 08:32 — 👍 39    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0