Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH

James Talarico is having quite a moment in Texas after the Colbert interview - and according to Google Trends, Texans are now searching his name at a very high rate just in time for early voting.

17.02.2026 17:36 — 👍 5    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0

For the first time this term, President Trump's approval rating has fallen below 40% in the RacetotheWH polling average.

16.02.2026 17:58 — 👍 4    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

It certainly helps that Democrats have Mary Peltola in the Senate race - who won Alaska the same year Republicans took the House in 2022. The environment is going to be a lot more friendly to Democrats this time around, so she's got a real shot!

12.02.2026 01:54 — 👍 5    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

Watch Alaska in 2026 - the state is zooming towards Democrats at a break neck speed. Relative to the popular vote, Alaska shifted from an R+29% state in 2008 to R+12% in 2024. No state in the nation has shifted faster towards Democrats in the last 16 years.

12.02.2026 01:54 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

Logan Philips: "I ran the new proposed Virginia map through my House Forecast. After simulating the election 10,000 times, here's what changed: Old Map: Dems 7.4 seats, GOP 3.6 seats. 1.2% chance Dems win 10/11 seats. New Map: Dems 9.5 seats, GOP 1.5 seats. 69% chance Dems win 10/11 seats. Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH · 2h Let's go through the races where the forecast changed the most. VA - 1: Tilt R -> Safe D, Vindman (D) from VA-7 runs here VA - 2: Tilt D -> Lean D - Democrats chance to win improves from 68% to 83% Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH VA - 5: Tilt R -> Likely D, Democrats chance to win improves from 31% to 86%, If Wittman (R) from VA-1 runs, he likely runs here VA - 6: Safe R -> Likely D, Democrats chance to win improves from 2% to 92%"

Interesting; in this simulation by @loganr2wh.bsky.social, redistricting gains Dems 2.1 seats (7.4 with the old map to 9.5 with the new map), with VA05 going from a 31% to an 86% chance for Dems, and VA06 going from a 2% to a 92% chance for Dems bluevirginia.us/2026/02/wedn...

12.02.2026 01:13 — 👍 11    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

Thanks for the welcome!

12.02.2026 00:14 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I'm joining Blue Sky late - but better late then never! I run RacetotheWH, where I predict the results of every election. Here's how the midterms look today!

House - Chance to Win:
Democrats: 69% (+8% since Oct)
Republicans: 31%

Senate:
Democrats: 40% (+6% since Oct)
Republicans: 60%

11.02.2026 23:46 — 👍 9    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0