The JHR

Too Scared for School? Effects of Terrorism on Students’ Achievement Adi Shany This study analyzes the impact of terror attacks on students’ academic achievement in Israel between 2001 and 2005, during the Second Intifada. Using within-student variation in exposure to terror attacks before exams, I find that a fatal terror attack before an exam adversely affects performance. The adverse effect, however, disappears for exams held five days or more after the attack. I explore potential explanations for these results, suggesting psychological impacts best explain the short-lived effect. Moreover, the temporary decrease in test scores does not affect the quality of diploma earned, suggesting no long-term effect on human capital accumulation.

Can terrorism affect test scores? A featured article by Adi Shany finds that a fatal attack before an exam lowers performance for only five days. Shany explores the psychological reasoning behind this in his open access piece.
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Do Administrative and Survey Data Tell the Same Impact Story? Evidence from the Health Profession Opportunity Grants 1.0 Impact Study Eleanor L. Harvill, Laura R. Peck, and Douglas Walton Job training evaluations face a choice: whether to use survey data, administrative data, or both to estimate impacts. Using data from the Health Profession Opportunity Grants (HPOG 1.0) Impact Study, we investigate whether employment and earnings levels and impacts of gaining access to occupational training differ by source: survey data, National Directory of New Hires data, and state unemployment insurance data. Impacts of HPOG 1.0 on employment do not differ, but earnings impacts differ between the data sources. Administrative data analysis finds positive earnings impacts, whereas survey data analysis detects none. These findings differ from related research, which tends to report that earnings impacts estimated from survey data are larger than those estimated from administrative data.

Which data tell the true story of job training impacts—survey data or administrative records? Eleanor Harvill, Laura Peck, and Douglas Walton's open-access article finds that employment impacts are the same whereas earnings impacts are different.
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Closing the Gap Between Vocational and General Education? Evidence from University Technical Colleges in England Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally, Camille Terrier and Guglielmo Ventura Vocational education delivery is widely debated, with ongoing efforts to improve its effectiveness. In 2010, England introduced University Technical Colleges (UTCs), hybrid institutions combining general and vocational education. This paper examines the impact of UTC attendance on achievement, university enrolment, and labour market outcomes. For students entering UTCs at the unconventional age 14, enrolment lowers academic achievement at age 16. However, for those entering at the conventional age 16, UTCs improve vocational achievement, enrolment in STEM degrees, and labour market outcomes. Findings highlight the risks of early specialisation and benefits of aligning education with students’ interests at a suitable stage.

Does timing matter for hybrid education models? Using an IV based on cohort & distance to school, Stephen Machin, @sandramcnally.bsky.social, ‪‪‪@camilleterrier.bsky.social and Guglielmo Ventura estimate effects of #UniversityTechnicalColleges.
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Licensure Tests and Teacher Supply Alexis Orellana and Marcus A. Winters We apply a sharp regression discontinuity design to administrative data from Connecticut to investigate the impact of failing the first attempt at a licensure test on teacher supply. We find deterrent effects from failing both a basic skills test required to enter an educator preparation program (Praxis I) and a subject-matter test used for ultimate certification (Praxis II). Failing Praxis II especially deters those seeking endorsement to teach within the shortage areas of STEM and special education. Failing Praxis II disproportionately pushes out relatively effective potential teachers and those who would have taught in schools with relatively smaller proportions of students who are Black or Hispanic, learning English, and eligible for subsidized lunch.

What happens when a test designed to certify #teachers ends up discouraging them? Alexis Orellana and Marcus Winters show that failing Praxis II disproportionately deters effective candidates and those headed to schools with fewer disadvantaged students. t.co/TSRTo5K2Pf

Photo of Ben Zou

The Journal of Human Resources is pleased to welcome Ben Zou as a new coeditor. An associate professor of economics at the Mitch Daniels School of Business at Purdue University, Zou’s research interests include labor economics, urban economics, and the Chinese economy.

Really glad that this paper found a great home!

This is the third paper that came out of a project that started in 2018...hard to believe that we will have (at least) one more related paper after 7 years!

The Effects of High School Remediation on Long-Run Educational Attainment Umut Özek This study examines the effects of remedial courses in high school on postsecondary outcomes using a regression discontinuity design and explores the mechanisms behind these effects. I find that being placed in the remedial schedule and taking an additional remedial course in high school reduces the likelihood of attaining a 2- or 4-year college degree by 20 percent. The findings also suggest that nearly half of this adverse effect is driven by the tracking effect of remediation, which significantly reduces students’ access to advanced courses in high school not only in the remediation subject but also in other core subjects.

High school remediation might hurt college chances? A study by @uozek.bsky.social finds students assigned remedial ELA courses in FL were 20% less likely to earn a 2 or 4 year degree, largely due to being tracked away from advanced courses. #Education
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The Evolution of the Wage Elasticity of Labor Supply over Time Todd Elder, Steven J. Haider and Cody Orr The uncompensated wage elasticity of labor supply is a fundamental parameter in economics. Despite its central role, few papers have studied directly how it has changed over time. We examine the evolution of this elasticity over the last four decades. We find robust evidence that the elasticity weakly increased between 2000 and 2020, representing a striking reversal from the sizable declines for single and married women between 1979 and 2000. We additionally find that these changes mostly arose on the extensive margin. Using our model, we conduct a series of counterfactual simulations to identify the factors responsible for these trends.

US wage-elasticity rose about 30% between 2000–2020, breaking a two-decade decline, especially for women. Todd Elder, Steven J. Haider and @cody-orr.bsky.social explore more about the evolution of this elasticity.
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#elasticity #laborsupply

Information Integration, Coordination Failures, and Quality of Prescribing Petri Böckerman, Liisa T. Laine, Mikko Nurminen and Tanja Saxell Poor information flows hamper coordination, potentially leading to suboptimal decisions in healthcare. We examine the effects of a large-scale policy of health information integration. We use the staggered adoption of a nationwide electronic prescribing system over four years in Finland and prescription-level administrative data. Our results show no discernible effect on the probability of co-prescribing harmful drugs on average, but the heterogeneity analysis reveals that this probability declines in rural regions, by 35 percent. This substantial reduction is driven by interacting prescriptions from different physicians and generalists. Information integration can therefore improve the coordination of physicians’ interdependent decisions.

An open-access featured article by
‪@pbockerman.bsky.social‬, Liisa T. Laine, ‪@mikkonurminen.bsky.social‬ and Tanja Saxell shows that e-prescribing reduced harmful co-prescriptions by 35% in rural Finland. Read more about health tech and care coordination at doi.org/10.3368/jhr.... #openaccess

Unexpected Colonial Returns: Self-Selection and Economic Integration of Migrants over Multiple Generations Anne C. Gielen and Dinand Webbink A ban on migration from Suriname, a former Dutch colony, to the Netherlands induced a mass migration and changed the selection of migrants. We exploit this historical episode to study the relationship between the self-selection of migrants and their long-term economic integration over three generations. ‘Beat-the-ban’ migrants, those arriving just before the ban, are negatively selected compared to economic migrants arriving earlier. This difference in selection is reflected in the outcomes of the first generation. However, the inequality in outcomes between differently selected migrants is not persistent. The offspring of negatively selected migrants has a faster catch-up to natives which can be explained by inequities in the country of origin.

Research by Anne C. Gielen and Dinand Webbink on Surinamese migration to the Netherlands shows that those who migrated just before the 1975 ban started off with fewer resources, but their children closed economic gaps more quickly than earlier #migrants.
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🧵 from @maggieecjones.bsky.social about our joint work (with Donn. Feir) evaluating active labour market programs for Indigenous populations, now available at @j-humanresources.bsky.social

Sexual Orientation and Multiple Job Holding Evidence from Swedish Administrative Data We use Swedish administrative data from 2001-2021 to study sexual orientation and multiple job holding. We identify over 19,000 employed individuals who ever entered a legal same-sex union and compare their outcomes with all employed individuals who were only ever in different-sex unions. We find that sexual minority individuals are significantly more likely than otherwise similar heterosexual individuals to hold multiple jobs. We explore four mechanisms: financial constraints, self-insurance, career mobility, and job heterogeneity. We find evidence in line with self-insurance mechanisms for sexual minority men. For women, we find that career mobility is a likely explanation.

Using two decades of Swedish data, Christopher Carpenter, Erwan Dujeancourt, Samuel Mann and Lucia Naldi
examine whether sexual minority individuals work more jobs and why. #LGBTQ
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Heterogeneous Returns to Active Labour Market Programs for Indigenous Populations Donn. L. Feir, Kelly Foley and Maggie E. C. Jones Active labour market programs for Indigenous Peoples are common, yet there exists little assessment of their effects. We study the largest active labour market program for Indigenous populations in Canada using rich administrative data on the universe of participants in the program. Two years after participation, average earnings were 6% higher among individuals who participated in high-intensity programs compared to those who only received job counselling or search assistance. However, we find substantial heterogeneity in these effects across legally distinct Indigenous populations. We suggest that understanding the different institutional environments facing Indigenous groups is essential for understanding this heterogeneity.

Donn. Feir, ‪‪‪@kellyfoley.bsky.social and @maggieecjones.bsky.social study Canada’s ASETS and find large benefits for Métis & non-Status First Nations, but the effects for Status First Nations participants depend on whether they work on or off reserve.
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Leadership & Gender Composition in Managerial Positions Evidence from the Brazilian Public Sector Thiago de Lucena Despite significant progress in fighting gender inequality over the past 60 years, women remain heavily underrepresented at the top of the job status distribution in both the public and private sectors. However, only limited evidence exists about how female leaders may curb the underrepresentation problem at top positions. Using a regression discontinuity design to examine close elections in Brazil, this study analyzes how the election of a female mayor affects the gender composition gap of top municipal executives. Results reveal that electing a female mayor in a close race increases the share of appointed female managers by 17%. This increase is robust to a series of specification tests and does not come at the cost of observed quality of employees. Next, additional analyses show that these results are also associated with an increase in other direct gender equality policies. Finally, I show that this increase in gender composition in top positions is driven mainly by areas of the government in which females are already relatively overrepresented, implying that while in top positions gender composition imbalances in the overall public sector decreased, relative imbalances across sectors increased.

Although only 1 in 3 top public-sector managers are women in non-OECD countries, Thiago de Lucena’s RDD study shows that a female mayor in Brazil can close 71% of the gender gap in just one term. #GenderInPolitics
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Relying on Private Firms as Safety Net Providers: WIC Participant Responses to Vendor Disqualification Charlotte Ambrozek When participants in public assistance programs must redeem benefits at private firms, a firm’s decision to be authorized to redeem benefits affects participants’ benefit access. Using a novel natural experiment, I investigate Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) participants’ response to decreases in availability of authorized food vendors. I find that participants who lose access to an authorized vendor are 32 percentage points less likely to participate in WIC. Among those who continue to participate, food benefits redeemed decrease by $5 per month. The results indicate a tension between firms’ compliance behavior and participants’ benefit access.

When a local WIC-authorized store is disqualified, participation drops by 32 percentage points. Charlotte Ambrozek finds that when private vendors are cut off from redeeming benefits, the real cost falls on postpartum parents and infants.

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Non-College Occupations, Workplace Routinization, and Female College Enrollment Amanda Chuan and Weilong Zhang We evaluate the impact of routinization from 1960 to 2000 on college enrollment. Among non-college workers, routine occupations employed a substantial share of the female workforce, but this share plummeted from 1970 on. Using shift-share instruments, we show that routinization displaced women’s non-college occupations, raising female enrollment. Men’s non-college occupations were less vulnerable, leaving their enrollment rates largely unaffected. Embedding this instrumental variation into a Roy model explains the mechanisms. Gender differences in skill create a comparative advantage in manual work for non-college men, leaving women to sort into routine jobs, which were more vulnerable to routinization.

In 1970, 70% of young working women without a degree held routine jobs. By 2000, those jobs were disappearing rapidly.
Amanda Chuan and Weilong Zhang show that routinization explains 44% of the boom in women’s college enrollment.
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7/7 Q: Ezra, what is the one takeaway you hope readers get?
A: "I hope more scholars view history as a laboratory to understand economics, family structure, and the human condition. The tools of economic history are so accessible now and there is an untapped opportunity to answer modern questions."

6/7 Reconstructing families over four decades, Goldstein shows how linking historical data provides unique insights into the long-run effects of family disruption—and how past inequalities inform present-day policy debates on family structure and support.

5/7 Rooted in history, Goldstein’s study offers insights for today. In an era with minimal welfare support, losing a father had lasting economic effects—highlighting the role of modern social safety nets in mitigating the impact of family loss.

4/7 The loss disrupted family structure and reduced household investment during critical years of child development. Goldstein finds that mothers of fatal accident victims were more likely to take on the dual role as sole parent and head of household.

3/7 Sons who lost their fathers as young children earned up to 15–18% less as adults. On average, sons of fatal accident victims earned 2.5–4.5% less and were more likely to be unemployed or on public relief than sons of non-fatal accident victims.

2/7 Goldstein links mining accident records with U.S. census data from 1900–1940, tracing sons into adulthood. By comparing sons of fatal and non-fatal accident victims, he estimates rare causal evidence on the long-term economic effects of losing a father.

🧵1/7 What happens when a child loses a parent—not emotionally, but economically? Goldstein examines sons of early 20th-century miners who died in work accidents, compared to those whose fathers survived, and their long-term impacts.

A Mighty Toll: Mine Accidents and the Long-Run Effect of Losing a Father Among Sons Ezra G. Goldstein This paper estimates the causal effects of parental loss on a child’s adulthood economic well-being by leveraging digitized records of nearly all early 20th-century U.S. mining accidents. I compare the outcomes of sons of fatal mining accident victims to those with fathers experiencing serious non-fatal accidents. Adult sons who lost their fathers when they were young experienced an 18 percent loss of income and had worse labor market outcomes. Examining families following the accident shows that widowed mothers were substantially more likely to take on the role of sole head of household and enter the labor market.

Findings by Ezra Goldstein indicate that sons of deceased miners face lower earnings and reduced social mobility with lasting economic and social consequences.
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Grateful for the chance to share this work and to see it published in such a great journal!

Is TRAP a Trap? The Impact of Abortion Access on Violence against Women and Their Children Caterina Muratori I evaluate the impact of abortion clinic closures on violence against women of reproductive age. Using a difference-in-differences approach and data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System, I find that increasing the distance to abortion clinics had sizable and nonlinear effects on violence against women. A 25-mile increase in the distance to the nearest clinic increases the number of reported violent offenses against women by up to 1.9 percent; the effect decreases as the initial distance from a clinic rises. The largest effects occur among Hispanic and Black women. The evidence also suggests that violence against children increases after clinic closures.

Laws meant to “protect” may actually endanger. TRAP laws—regulations targeting abortion providers—led to increased gender-based violence in Texas municipalities. @caterina-muratori.bsky.social uses a difference-in-differences approach to show how.
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Short-Term Events, Long-Term Friends? Freshman Orientation Peers and Academic Performance Raphael Brade How does the formation of social connections at the beginning of college shape individuals’ subsequent academic performance? Exploiting quasi-random assignment to groups of a two-day freshman orientation program, I find that such brief social activities can be sufficient to generate lasting performance spillovers: being assigned to a peer group with one SD higher ability improves the academic performance of business administration students by 0.05 to 0.08 SD up to three years later. I provide evidence that the effects result from the formation of lasting social ties, and that performance spillovers are moderated by the broader social environment.

Raphael Brade finds that random peer assignment during freshman orientation can have lasting academic impacts. For business students, being grouped with high-performing peers improved grades, persistence, and study progress up to 3 years later.
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📢New guidelines for accepted manuscripts from @uwiscpress.bsky.social: All figures should include, for each panel, alternative text (alt text), a text description of the image designed to provide meaning for users with visual impairments. See journals.uwpress.wisc.edu/PDFs/AltText... #ADACompliance

I am very excited to share that my paper "Short-Term Events, Long-Term Friends? Freshman Orientation Peers and Academic Performance" is now forthcoming @j-humanresources.bsky.social: jhr.uwpress.org/content/earl... #econsky

Did you know you can suggest a potential coeditor (jhr.uwpress.org/content/edit...) when you submit to the JHR? The Editor reserves the right to go with someone else, but this can help get papers out for review more quickly. Submit at jhr.msubmit.net/cgi-bin/main... 🤓