Happy Thanksgiving yall
I’m sure helping finance WBD will do very well for them…
Word word. Well, I’ll try to login more frequently.
Thank you for the kind words.
We back!
Things are mostly good. Looking forward to a nice time with the fam this week.
That does sound different.
Blue skying. How things over in these parts?
Sort of want to troll that person.
Won’t. But the desire is big.
Trading sardine though. For sure.
Competitors have limited access to the capital markets.
Eventually there will be a shortage for these vessels if no boats are produced.
It’s basically a capital cycle call.
~12 years.
See s25.q4cdn.com/923634175/fi...
Think your hatred makes sense. Investment hypothesis can be distilled to:
Buying well below replacement value. Until TDW hits $3-4Bn in mkt cap or day rates go way higher there’s almost no incentive to build any new boats.
Yeah, I had some Mexico exposure that did quite well YTD.
I like offshore services a lot right now. Especially after this past week.
Trying to figure a smart way to play it. TDW is Robotti’s idea. I think it’s a layup here. Would sell around $90-105.
Ha. Prolly buy a ton of private credit and QQQ to fade my thoughts!
Can you not search hashtags here?
How does this place work?
Idk. Just something Bessent cited as a reason for long delays around April.
He advocated more of a flex staffing regime. Seems not impossible for basic Q&A.
I don’t think I want that
Interesting that the IRS has the same number of call center employees throughout the year.
Flexing that makes sense.
Just got done with Berkshire.
Sounds like Buffett will be on Earth for a while longer.
Was worried we might be going the other way there.
Time for him to get that sex change!
Rumor has it the bots don’t exist here. Can this be true?
No doubt.
I own a good amount of treasuries. So owning more doesn’t make a ton of sense.
Kind of thinking of it as a business risk barbell.
In 1999 real businesses weren’t terribly overvalued. It was speculative bullshit that was.
Don’t think this is quite the same given where many quality businesses trade.
Outside some liquidity draining event FANGM seems reasonable enough to me.
If a crash happens equity isn’t where I’d wanna b
I’d rather own treasuries.
Or cyclical equities. I’m leaning towards some cyclicals.
Hated has usually done well for me. Last year it was financials. Though, someone did that for me.
Worked. Pretty damn well.
Yep. It does.
Life sciences isn’t loved. And it isn’t “a value investor’s” part of the market.
Something like offshore oil services, which is a value investor playground, will probably also do well.
Private equity returns are going to suck.
Hated parts of the market will outperform over the next 10 years.
FANGM is not overvalued.
Private credit isn’t worth the risk.
Patience will be rewarded.
This isn’t 1999. But it’s getting close. And we will get there.
Those are my thoughts.
This is a great listen.
Especially if you like capital cycle theory.
youtu.be/jE9clg6TSVA
Please report as well.
Scammers going to scam
