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Steve Tilley

@stevenctilley.bsky.social

Horse race bettor, interested in mathematics, statistics, programming, wildlife and escaping from the fruit bats on X.

138 Followers  |  28 Following  |  31 Posts  |  Joined: 04.09.2024  |  2.1783

Latest posts by stevenctilley.bsky.social on Bluesky

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View from the β€œCloud”. The sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the scene is enhanced by the two bottles thrown in the field some thirty yards from the path.

26.12.2024 10:31 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Breakfast at the Farmers Ulverston Β£11.95
Good and filling before the rigours of Black Eye Friday.

20.12.2024 18:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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'My betting is down by more than 99 per cent' - Royal Ascot-winning owner who turned over up to Β£1m a day bemoans impact of checks

Betting on horse racing. I’m quoted!!!

www.racingpost.com/news/gamblin...

05.12.2024 22:04 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Google Trends See interest over time on Google Trends for Horse racing - United Kingdom, 4/11/21 - 12/4/24.

This for the term "Horse Racing". Same period.

trends.google.com/trends/explo...

04.12.2024 13:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Agreed , but that doesn’t account for it being fairly steady until 2023 and then starting to drop away.
The double spikes, Cheltenham/Aintree, were about level in 2022-2023 but lower in 2024

04.12.2024 13:56 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Google Trends See interest over time on Google Trends for horse race results - United Kingdom, 4/11/21 - 12/4/24.

A graph of google searches for "horse race results" in the UK. It does not look encouraging πŸ₯²

trends.google.com/trends/explo...

04.12.2024 13:45 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Short aticle on what happens to horses returning to jumping after a long lay off

28.11.2024 14:49 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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This is a table of the number of blunders and mistakes horses made when ridden by UK jockeys over chases and hurdles 2019-2023. (Thank you @proformracing.bsky.social) I look a limit of 800 rides to qualify and kept in retired jockeys for comparison
Redone correctly!

19.11.2024 12:25 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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This is a table of UK trainers 2019-2023 and how often their horses were reported to have made a mistake or blundered (thank you Proform) .
To qualify the trainer must have had 500+ runners in the period.

18.11.2024 16:12 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

There’s a bit of discussion about the Welsh giving the official name Eryri to Snowdon.
This is not a big problem, Welsh is not a terribly difficult language and its spelling is pretty much phonetic.
I’ll never speak it like a native but I can say hello and order a beer.
Just learn some WelshπŸ˜€

14.11.2024 11:33 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Seems to work

12.11.2024 14:33 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Hi

11.11.2024 15:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Go out for walk, the autumn trees have dropped their leaves , admire a skeletal silver birch or the wind twisted thorn.
The seasons change , so do people.

07.11.2024 14:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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So after walking 4000 miles non stop in 2022-23 around the Coast of England and Wales I had my right hip replaced in May this year.
Today is the first time since I did some rough walking over the local hills.
Good to be starting back.

06.11.2024 16:55 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

So is this a random number?

3.141592653589793238462643…

21.10.2024 11:39 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yep you should also get rid of or combine any cells where the expected value is less than 5.
All the expected cells should be at least 5 . Does appear Africa is the standout!

11.10.2024 09:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

658 sounds huge.
Not saying it’s wrong but worth rechecking.

11.10.2024 08:58 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

You could use a chisq test on a table with the actual number of votes cast.
That would help show if as a whole continents showed bias.
You just need to calculate the expected number of votes an area would expect if there was no bias.

10.10.2024 14:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Harvest in England the second worst on record because of wet weather - The Guardian

10.10.2024 14:19 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Glad you’re here?
Courtesy of Private Eye.

10.10.2024 08:04 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Sunday Lunch at my local!

29.09.2024 14:41 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I’m glad I’m here πŸ˜€

27.09.2024 15:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

June 2024

β€œIf Labour win the election there’ll be nothing for the satirists and comedians to make fun of, they’ll be redundant”

September 2024

β€œSend out for more satirists and comedians, we can't keep up β€œ

22.09.2024 09:41 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Try Sandown with two πŸ˜€

12.09.2024 20:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Latest edition of Private Eye has a balanced article on it.

12.09.2024 18:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Decide to have a slow cook over the weekend. Get a swede at Tescos
Young lad on checkout looks at it suspiciously.
β€œwhat is it ?”
β€œIt’s a swede”
β€œI’ll have to find the code”
He spends a little while typing into the system.
β€œI’m sorry I can’t find it, how do you spell swede?”

11.09.2024 18:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Working from Westminster today! Wish it’d stayed this dry….

10.09.2024 15:19 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Paris to name sports venue in honor of slain Olympian Rebecca Cheptegei The Ugandan marathoner was set on fire in Kenya by her ex-partner, police allege. β€œParis will not forget her,” its mayor said, according to the AFP.

Paris intends to name a sports venue in honor of Rebecca Cheptegei, the Olympian who authorities allege was murdered by her ex-boyfriend in Kenya after returning from this summer’s Games, its city government said Friday.

07.09.2024 13:29 β€” πŸ‘ 578    πŸ” 91    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 6
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β€˜My jaw dropped’: Bat loss linked to death of human infants In places where bat populations crashed, farmers sprayed more insecticides, and baby mortality spiked

Everyone needs to understand that the biodiversity crisis isn’t just some vague academic concern for ecologists to flap about, it’s literally a threat to our continued existence.

Eg: bats die off, insect numbers explode, more insecticide is used, and babies die.

www.science.org/content/arti...

06.09.2024 16:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1796    πŸ” 869    πŸ’¬ 31    πŸ“Œ 33
Stewarding in Britain and the Appeals Process | British Horseracing Authority

www.britishhorseracing.com/stewarding-i...

06.09.2024 12:37 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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