Leonardo Monasterio

Is my phone listening to me? - BBC Bitesize

Is my phone listening to me? - BBC Bitesize share.google/wv6JgQQxfTLW...

Não havia fake news e, mesmo depois do recuo, a medida segue sendo um erro econômico e político de proporções luciano_coutinhescas

Excelente o texto do Bacha

Até que o erro na percepção nem foi tão grande. Pornografia deve ter feito os pesquisados menos iludidos
(Uma pergunta como " você dirige melhor do que a média?" Tem percentuais bem maiores)

This new QJE paper concludes that the macroeconomic costs of climate change are far greater than earlier estimates suggested. It finds that a 1°C rise in global temperatures reduces world GDP by over 20%.

Cool little experiment: if you subject AI to harsh labor conditions (rejecting work often with no explanation, etc), it slightly, but significantly, changes their “views” on economics - making them more “left”. Whether this is real or roleplaying doesn’t change that agents have alignment drift.

time traveler from 12 months from now just sent me this

The problem with adopting the terminology "late stage capitalism" is that it becomes progressively more and more funny to cite your work as time goes by, like "as has been shown, late stage capitalism is hurtling us towards rapid collapse (Smith, 1974)".

Eduardo Angeli, meu amigo e craque de HPE ,me contou que foi o professor Jorge Miglioli (Unicamp). Ele fez doutorado na Polônia nos anos 60, voltou e difundiu as ideias do Kalecki no Br

(Chart 1: “Sugar Prices at Amsterdam, 1609–1763”): Line chart of annual average sugar prices in Amsterdam (y-axis: groten per pound; x-axis: years 1609–1763) for multiple origins and grades: Brazil White (highest series), São Tomé, Barbados, Caribbean & Surinamese aggregate, Martinique, Saint-Domingue, and dashed “powder/refined” series (Martinique Powder, Saint-Domingue Powder, East Indian Powder). Brazil White is very high and volatile in the 1620s–1650s (peaks above 30 groten), then reappears lower (roughly 9–13) in the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries; raw Caribbean series cluster mostly around 4–9 groten when present, while powder/refined series sit above the raw lines and rise sharply in the 1750s–1760s. Shaded background bands mark major conflict periods (Dutch Brazil 1630–54; Nine Years’ War 1689–97; War of Spanish Succession 1702–13; War of Austrian Succession 1744–48; Seven Years’ War 1756–63), and line breaks indicate years with no surviving quotations.

(Chart: “Sugar Prices at Amsterdam, 1664–1763”): Line chart of annual average sugar prices in Amsterdam (y-axis: groten per pound, roughly 2–20; x-axis: 1664–1763) with separate series for Brazil White (highest line), São Tomé, Caribbean & Surinamese (aggregate), Barbados, Martinique, Saint-Domingue, and dashed refined/powder grades (Martinique Powder, Saint-Domingue Powder, East Indian Powder). Brazil White is very high in the mid-1660s (around 16–19 groten), then mostly around 10–13 when quoted (with long gaps), and rises again in the 1750s. Barbados and the Caribbean/Surinamese aggregate sit lower (generally about 5–9), with a clear dip in the early 1720s. Martinique and Saint-Domingue begin only in 1719 and cluster around 4–6 through the 1720s–1730s, then rise in the 1740s and especially the 1750s. Powder/refined series appear mainly after 1750 and run above the raw Martinique and Saint-Domingue lines, reaching the mid-teens by the early 1760s. Shaded background bands mark major wars (Franco-Dutch War 1672–78, Nine Years’ War 1689–97, War of Spanish Succession 1702–13, War of Austrian Succession 1744–48, Seven Years’ War 1756–63); vertical dashed markers label key moments (Rampjaar, Methuen, Law/SSB, Aix-la-Chapelle). Line breaks indicate years with no surviving quotations.

Looking at EM sugar prices across multiple periods is fascinating, even though my series is incomplete. The collapse after Barbados enters the picture makes every other change look like peanuts. I knew that (and the literature has known it for ages), but it is still wild to see it plotted.

“Well, according to the dictionary, I’m just a large, flightless bird from East Africa. ... But believe me, Doris—once you get to know me, you’ll see I’m much, much more than that.”

“Well, according to the dictionary, I’m just a large, flightless bird from East Africa. ... But believe me, Doris—once you get to know me, you’ll see I’m much, much more than that.”

New work on school cell phone bans just dropped.

"Bans...led to a[n] ... increase in student suspensions in the short-term ... but disciplinary actions began to dissipate after the first year."

"We find significant improvements in student test scores in the second year of the ban."

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

#Econsky

www.gov.br/mdic/pt-br/a...

Traffic fatalities increase on the days of major music album releases, when online streaming to mobile devices surges, raising the possibility of driver distraction, from Vishal R. Patel, Christopher M. Worsham, Michael Liu, and Anupam B. Jena www.nber.org/papers/w34866

Identification K9 puts professional ethics over personal attachments

Time to repost some causality memes #IdentificationK9

Eu me lembrei que a Conceição já o citava nos anos 1970. De onde será que ela o conheceu?

A nota técnica que justifica este absurdo é vergonhosa, mas me fez pensar: quem foi que introduziu Kalecki no BR?
Na UFRJ, nos anos 80, ele era ensinado como se estivesse no mesmo nível do que Keynes.
Será que foi via New School ou será os cursos já constava nos cursos da Cepal? Alguém sabe?

Deve ser horrível viver em um país em que o executivo resolve taxar as importações para se financiar (e vender favores)

Desespero completo

Irish Independent: Man stole three coffee machines in a week from Monaghan department store.

How does he sleep at night?

Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries? (Forthcoming Article) - We consider why fertility has fallen in recent decades in almost all high-income countries. We begin by documenting declining total fertility and rising childlessness across cohorts, highlighting the need to focus on cohort versus period-specific fertility rates. With this motivation, we propose a conceptual model of fertility determination that augments the standard Becker model with an explicit role for social norms and cohort-specific contextual factors, including broad social and economic influences and an expanded set of consumption and lifestyle options. We posit that these forces have led to “shifting priorities,” reducing the centrality of parenthood. We then review existing empirical evidence –and conclude that the decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure consistent with our cohort-based conceptual framework. We conclude with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.

Forthcoming in the JEL: "Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?" by Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine.

Pessoal esquece que um não resultado tbm é um resultado. Mas isso vem muito da cultura de publicar tudo o tempo todo

Torço pela Polilaminina. E é por isso que exijo rigor. Sem rigor científico, a polilaminina pode ser só mais uma cloroquina.

Bom texto:
piccini.substack.com/p/torco-pela...

Parabéns pela investigação

Africa as a success story: Political organisation in pre-colonial Africa Theories from research in anthropology, history and African studies, combined with new data on independent political communities in pre-colonial Africa, provide an alternate view of the continent’s history. Africans succeeded in keeping the scale of political society small, but that left Africa vulnerable.

🆕 Africa as a success story: Political organisation in pre-colonial Africa

Today on VoxDev, Soeren Henn (University of Wisconsin-Madison) & James Robinson (Harris School of Public Policy) provide an alternate view of Africa's history: https://ow.ly/G89C50YkUmp

"A cientista disse que o desenho da pesquisa “vai depender da realidade” e indicou que, se os efeitos observados forem muito consistentes, pode haver dificuldade para manter um braço do estudo sem a substância experimental".

Isso é um TOTAL ABSURDO

Da mesma forma que exigimos isso com a vacina da covid (que foi relativamente rápido), temos que exigir de outros experimentos científicos.

My father was born in 1945. The Salk vaccine wasn’t approved until 1955 (it was literally front page news). My dad remembers watching his mother’s tears of relief when he got the shot.

He’s still alive, btw. You want me to go ask him what happened to the kids he played with who didn’t get the shot?