Shahin Vallée

A framework for central banks navigating political uncertainty in the transition - CETEx This report recommends three principles for coping with the political uncertainty faced by central bankers.

New report out now with @granthamlse.bsky.social CETEx: "A framework for central banks navigating political uncertainty in the transition"

cetex.org/publications...

Par rapport à 2024:
Le RN confirme sa large domination (33-34%).
Le bloc macroniste recule nettement (14-16%).
LR remontent un peu (12-13%).
Reconquête en hausse (5-6%).
Le NFP, le meilleur scénario, mais il mais baisse par rapport à 2024 (-4%). Le PS confirme qu’il est le premier parti à gauche.

Great move! Merz is picking up on a proposal his predecessor as party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer suggested to him in our pages back in May ip-quarterly.com/en/op-ed-how...

One of the most important charts in the world - from
Rush Doshi in the New York Times.

Without its allies, the United States is woefully behind China in metrics of raw economic power.

Too bad the US president does not seem to get it.

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NEW EPISODE OUT NOW!

Today David talks to @leaypi.bsky.social about her new book 'Indignity: A Life Reimagined'. A conversation about death and displacement, identity and betrayal, secrecy and salvation.

Find us at...🎧 ppfideas.com

Insurance in the Polycrisis | Kate Mackenzie & Tim Sahay The future is triage on an uninsurable earth.

Absolutely fantastic piece on the interfaces between climate risk and insurance in the Polycrisis newsletter today, by @70sbachchan.bsky.social and @katemac.bsky.social

Not a doom loop, but “communities of fate” and the moral economy of the welfare state.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ins...

Great speech on the foundational role of the rule of law for Europe and the Euro

France’s curse and Bayrou’s political suicide Political woes and a ballooning deficit leave Paris searching for stability at home and credibility abroad

on.ft.com/4lZ4i7X France’s curse and Bayrou’s political suicide

France must get creative to confront its fiscal deficit By calling for a confidence vote, the prime minister has renounced his duties and undermined the country’s credibility

France must get creative to confront its fiscal deficit—
As he has done in the past, Macron should force Bayrou to carry on his obligations temporarily as a caretaker and… www.ft.com/content/1f8d... @shahinvallee.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

on.ft.com/3JtO0X9 France must get creative to confront its fiscal deficit

For reasons, checking in on foreign official holdings of US treasuries at the Fed. Now down $100 billion since 'Liberation day'. Note: That latest data point with the biggest weekly drop yet is from *before* Trump's attempted firing of the Fed governor.

Next release will be interesting (Thursday).

Mario Draghi : comment changer la trajectoire de notre continent Entre Gaza et Trump, dans un été marqué par l’inaction de l’Europe, le doute s’installe. En établissant un diagnostic sévère, Mario Draghi montre qu’il est possible d’agir — et d’espérer. Nous publ...

« Le monde ne nous regarde pas avec bienveillance : il n’attend pas la lenteur de nos rituels communautaires pour nous imposer sa force. [Il] exige de nous une transformation radicale. »

Un nouvel avertissement salubre de Mario Draghi, via le @grandcontinent.bsky.social.

Politically acceptable UK racism is rising, even under La... As I wrote these words last autumn: “We have made progress... even though that progress remains fragile and insufficient”, little did I realise just how ...

This is outstanding. God knows what Labour is doing: legitimising the racism that'll be its undoing, losing the coalition which put it in office, trying to secure voters who will never support it, digging its own moral grave.

observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

Europe is selling its soul to Trump What masquerades as pragmatism is self-harming opportunism

“Europe is risking its political soul. It has put itself in a situation in which leaders cannot say publicly what they are actually trying to do. That is a recipe for distrust and a poison for democracy”

on.ft.com/3HH41Ze

Comment la société israélienne regarde-t-elle la guerre à Gaza ? Le 17 août 2025, des dizaines de milliers personnes étaient rassemblées dans tout le pays pour demander la fin de la guerre. La libération des otages et la vie des soldats envoyés à la guerre étaient ...

🪧 Le 17 août 2025, des dizaines de milliers d’Israéliens étaient rassemblés pour demander la fin de la guerre. Mais qu'en est-il du sort des #palestiniens ?
👉 Quelques réponses avec Denis Charbit, politiste, Sylvaine Bulle, sociologue et Elad Lapidot, professeur d'études hébraïques

Constructing “Social Europe” | Neil Warner The long 1970s and alternative visions for EU integration

"Even if the 'window of opportunity' for a more profound Social Europe had been grasped in the 1970s, how different would it have turned out to be?"

From 2023, Neil Warner reviews Social Europe, The Road not Taken, by Aurélie Dianara Andry

Europe’s ‘happy vassal’ complex The EU is willingly colluding in its own subjugation to Trump’s geopolitical agenda

Spot-on by Gilles Gressani (@grandcontinent.bsky.social‬): "Europe’s submission [...] amounts to the rejection of any substantial autonomy in exchange for protection."

www.ft.com/content/0fa0...

On Monday, join us for:

ARGENTINA’S DEBT TRAP
A discussion on Argentina, debt, and the IMF

with: Julia Strada, Chris Marsh, ‪@nakedkeynes.bsky.social‬, Hernan Letcher, and Maria Haro Sly.

Register here: bit.ly/argentina-fmi

Below, a 🧵 on relevant pieces from the archive—

1/ Trump's recent trade agreements with allies are revealing significant interpretation gaps. From Japan to South Korea to the EU, these deals lack formal documentation, creating ongoing disputes over fundamental terms.

Peut-on sortir de la civilisation du plastique ? Alors que s'ouvre un nouveau tour de négociations pour un traité international contre la pollution plastique à Genève au siège des Nations Unies, se pose la question de l'omniprésence du plastique dan...

Peut-on sortir de la civilisation du #plastique ?
Une émission à réécouter sur le site france culture.

Military Unification? | Dimitri Zurstrassen A critical juncture for a common European defense policy

"While EDIP and SAFE represent the EU's most ambitious defense industrial initiatives to date, their design reveals the persistence of the same fundamental contradictions that have shaped European defense policy for over seven decades."

Family feelings: affective ties and the reproduction of wealth in super-rich families Rising wealth inequalities, concentrated in the hands of a few super-rich families, have recently sparked sociological interest in how these families sustain and legitimise their wealth across generat...

My first paper of my dissertation 'Patrimonial Relations. Kinship, capital and conflict in super-rich Families' is out now on open access!

Here I discuss how super-rich families use relational work on affective family ties as an economic resource.

@bupjournals.bsky.social

« La fête est un moment de désordre organisé », d'après Philippe Steiner.
👉 Vous pouvez réécouter l'émission de vendredi « Où va la fête ? » avec Philippe Steiner, Emmanuelle Lallement et Alexandre Grondeau sur le site de France Culture.

Insight: How Pakistan shot down India's cutting-edge fighter using Chinese gear Just after midnight on May 7, the screen in the Pakistan Air Force's operations room lit up in red with the positions of dozens of active enemy planes across the border in India.

Fascinating look at the air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over a hundred planes and amounts to the Kursk of recent air warfare.

tl;dr: amateurs talk about planes, professionals talk about situational awareness.

Both sides (and outside observers) now learning from the outcome.

4/ "Why US tariffs haven’t been passed through even more to higher US prices?
-effective rate today is “only” 8.8% now...but the effective rate is about to double
- radical volatility of the tariffs ended; now seem “permanent”
→Conjecture: pass through will accelerate this quarter"- Richard Baldwin

More breaking news on an already eventful day!
This gives President Trump new opportunities regarding the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, including the possibility to nominate in the next few days a de facto “shadow chair” should he wish to do so….
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Military Unification? | Dimitri Zurstrassen A critical juncture for a common European defense policy

"Around 55 percent of arms imports by European states between 2019–2023 came from the US, up from 35 percent between 2014–2018."

NEW @dzurstrassen.bsky.social reviews the persistent obstacles of European defense policy, from the EU's founding to the SAFE program.

To See How America Unraveled, Go Back Five Years What the summer of 2020 wrought

The mass unrest during the summer of 2020 “certainly did not cause the sacking of the Capitol,” @chatterton.bsky.social argues. “But that winter siege amounted to an outgrowth of the summer revolt—the rotten fruit of imitation.”

L'Europe après le Jour de la Dépendance « Le silence que l’Europe a opposé aux intimidations de Donald Trump a fait le tour du monde, résonnant comme l’aveu de notre impuissance. Il nous appartient désormais de redonner à l’Europe une voix ...

Une analyse fine de cette débâcle et de ce qu’elle appelle comme sursaut. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/07/2...