The proper american instrument is an amendment to the constitution which protects the political nature of the speech.
09.02.2026 06:39 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
We have to choose someone and that is strategic consideration that none should forget. Meaning, as long as he is in the running, he has a chance, and in the case he is the chosen one I will likely back him to the hilt against the alternative.
09.02.2026 06:33 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
We can take advantage of the axis by treating it as real and then stop wishing Trump would change and use the fact that he is strategically locked against the axis itself.
Basically it means we mine the space for geopolitical moves against the axis that assume Trump will defect to Putin. It is rich
09.02.2026 06:29 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
I agree that he makes a good talking head.
But I do think I clearly outline what I mean in the article. Asking more of our leaders even as the far right asks less of theirs is still possible.
Let it be a mark of greatness in Pete's growth. He is competing with other great communicators, is he not?
09.02.2026 06:22 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
![The Simple Conclusion
The simplest honest reduction is to treat Trump–Putin as an alignment inference problem, not a label debate. Then we can use a Gaussian predicate to supply a baseline for ordinary behavior in these exceptional times. The heavy-tailed rank–mass structure we find is just an emergent property of realistic explanation spaces. Finally, the macro-posterior on the alignment axis is what we should expect given what we have seen out of the Trump-Putin axis.
The simulation’s decision-grade output is straightforward: P(A > 0.5) = 0.9682, with a posterior mean alignment of 0.8826 and a 95% credible interval of [0.4582, 0.9967]. That means that we should expect less than 5% of the density on the benign hypothesis.
These easy-to-generate numbers are why serious analysts must stop treating “conspiracy” as a dismissal term and start treating inference as a discipline.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ga4zbdzepiol7j2dg4fc3qcr/bafkreihgueetpibsidofvhxcj3flhjqzyfc4bq2wmv3f7c44edoge2u3ky@jpeg)
The Simple Conclusion
The simplest honest reduction is to treat Trump–Putin as an alignment inference problem, not a label debate. Then we can use a Gaussian predicate to supply a baseline for ordinary behavior in these exceptional times. The heavy-tailed rank–mass structure we find is just an emergent property of realistic explanation spaces. Finally, the macro-posterior on the alignment axis is what we should expect given what we have seen out of the Trump-Putin axis.
The simulation’s decision-grade output is straightforward: P(A > 0.5) = 0.9682, with a posterior mean alignment of 0.8826 and a 95% credible interval of [0.4582, 0.9967]. That means that we should expect less than 5% of the density on the benign hypothesis.
These easy-to-generate numbers are why serious analysts must stop treating “conspiracy” as a dismissal term and start treating inference as a discipline.
09.02.2026 06:10 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
The Gaussian Predicate, Zipf Tails, and the Only Question That Matters on Trump–Putin
Abstract
Dear #BlueWizards, This is what analysis of the Trump-Putin axis actually looks like when done under wartime minimax considerations:
johnrraymondesq.medium.com/the-gaussian...
@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
09.02.2026 06:06 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
YouTube video by Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics
The Real Reason Russia Is Dragging Out Talks
For reference, the video where @pyotrkurzin.bsky.social and Konstantin Samoilov sadly get Trump-Putin all wrong:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=anHv...
08.02.2026 21:39 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Samoilov and Kurzin refuse to do this weighting. They retreat to semantic debates about labels and congratulate themselves for avoiding “conspiracy.” In doing so, they abdicate the core responsibility of analysts in an asymmetric conflict: to ask who benefits, how consistently, and at whose expense. On Trump–Putin, that failure is not academic. It is consequential.
Liking someone is not the same as trusting their analysis. On Russia’s economy, on internal Kremlin dynamics, Samoilov and Kurzin often add value. On Trump–Putin, they do not. Until they are willing to abandon ad hoc skepticism, engage the historical record, and apply a rigorous, probabilistic frame, they should not be relied upon to get this axis right.
08.02.2026 21:37 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Sadly, When It Comes to Trump–Putin Konstantin Samoilov and Pyotr Kurzin Are Rubes
I want to be explicit at the outset: I like Konstantin Samoilov and Pyotr Kurzin. They are thoughtful, articulate, and generally serious…
Dear #BlueWizards, Even people who should know to do their research aren't doing it when it comes to Trump-Putin...
johnrraymondesq.medium.com/sadly-when-i...
@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
08.02.2026 21:37 — 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
The country we want to live in cannot be defended with hope or with etiquette. It can only be defended with resistance calibrated to the threat. If we normalize political killing under the cover of immigration enforcement, we will not get safety. We will get a state that has learned it can kill, smear, and move on.
And if we accept that, we will have taught the regime the most dangerous lesson of all: that Americans can be trained to accept the intolerable — one taillight, one label, one body at a time.
29.01.2026 20:29 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Calling It Now: Trump Wants ICE/CBP to Act as His Personal Kill Squads
Kill squads are not novel in the world. They are the oldest language of regimes that have decided persuasion is too slow, law is too…
Dear #BlueWizards, I know it is scary to conceive, but Trump wants to have personal kills squads. All signs point that way...
johnrraymondesq.medium.com/calling-it-n...
@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
29.01.2026 20:28 — 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
CONCLUSION: DANGEROUS
I do not need to claim Hakeem Jeffries is a monster to conclude that his output can be dangerously compatible with regime survival. Minimax does not care about the inner feelings of an asp. It cares about repeated outcomes.
In an authoritarian environment, the public cannot afford to confuse spectacle with constraint. A show of opposition is not opposition. If the goal is to stop the project, the project must be confronted at the level of capacity.
Anything else is choreography that the regime can easily afford.
29.01.2026 05:32 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Hygiene is a prerequisite; minimax is the work
Audience hygiene belongs in the toolkit. It can reduce panic, resist manipulation, and strengthen a citizen’s ability to think. But it cannot substitute for wartime analysis because it does not answer the central question: where is the enemy pushing, and how do we stop the push?
If you are engaged in a political war—one that uses more than tanks and drones, one that weaponizes moral categories and alliance trust—then you do not have the luxury of confusing epistemic therapy with strategic judgment.
Clean lenses help you see.
Minimax tells you what you’re seeing.
And in a war, that difference is the difference between reacting and winning.
29.01.2026 00:15 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
The implication for us all is blunt: Kyle’s hedge is a rhetorical performance of skepticism that lands as an abdication of responsibility.
It invites the audience to sit in paralysis — half-suspicious, half-uncertain — when the available evidence supports a decisive, risk-based conclusion: President Trump is, at minimum, a sustained counterintelligence vulnerability whose incentives and actions reliably align with Kremlin objectives, and whose ecosystem contains active channels that behave as if they are designed to launder Kremlin preferences into U.S. decision-making.
That is the defensible public conclusion even before one reaches the deeper claim of decades-long capture — and it is why the “Manchurian Candidate” trope is worse than useless. It frames the problem as melodrama instead of strategy, and it trains the audience to wait for a confession instead of responding to observable patterns.
28.01.2026 23:09 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Dear Kyle Kulinski, The Question of Trump Being a Manchurian Candidate Isn’t About the Existence of…
Kyle Kulinski’s “Manchurian Candidate” framing functions as a permission slip for intellectual non-commitment. It signals seriousness while…
Dear #BlueWizards, @kylekulinskishow.bsky.social lack of commitment to answering questions about Trump is the opposite of courage...
johnrraymondesq.medium.com/dear-kyle-ku...
@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
28.01.2026 23:08 — 👍 6 🔁 2 💬 2 📌 0
Implications: what Western leaders must internalize now. If Russia’s posture is compellence, then Western posture must be deterrence plus denial, not mediation-as-substitution-for-power.
That means treating any ceasefire or peace track as an enforcement problem, not a wording problem: verifiable conditions, credible penalties for violation, and immediate defensive capacity for Ukraine that does not wait on Kremlin good behavior.
Zelenskyy’s message is strategically conservative: do not confuse the existence of talks with the existence of peaceful intent, especially when Russia couples negotiations with winter coercion and unchanged territorial demands.
The minimax corollary is blunt but stabilizing: when a proven enemy offers ambiguity, assume their ambiguity is a weapon until proven otherwise.
28.01.2026 22:54 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
The public is not asking for optimism. The public is asking for competence under fire.
This is why the center-left’s most polished communicators are now being greeted with something colder than disagreement: dismissal. People are not confused about what time it is. They are confused about why their leaders are still acting as if time is a substitute for power.
In rupture, that confusion becomes judgment. And judgment becomes abandonment.
There is still a path back for those willing to change. But it requires a renunciation of the politics of relevance in favor of the politics of responsibility. It requires replacing parlor tricks with leverage. It requires treating the public as adults who can handle the truth: that no one is coming to save them unless they build the power to do it themselves, and that any leader who is unwilling to help them build that power is not a leader at all.
28.01.2026 21:29 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
YouTube video by Jake Broe
Ukraine is Gamifying the Elimination of Russians with Drones
Thank you, @realjakebroe.bsky.social for your latest video. It was really good.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KknU...
@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
28.01.2026 01:42 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Putin’s worst mistake may not be that he invaded.
It may be that he invaded so openly and so completely that he triggered the one thing his model cannot easily neutralize: a professional, multinational military alignment that is committed to denying him victory and willing to do it in ways that never require a formal declaration of war.
The standard line says Putin underestimated Ukraine.
The more accurate line is that Putin underestimated what Ukraine would activate. And once activated, it does not shut off at one man’s command.
27.01.2026 23:50 — 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Trump’s system does not deliver him instant A→B obedience the way Putin’s does. That is the opening. The project’s failure to achieve immediate linkage is why escalation became so brazen — and why it has now become so visible.
The genie has been let out.
Now the work is to put it back in the bottle — here at home — by forcing the system to become not merely buffered, but actively anti-fascist: coordinated, disciplined, and relentless in raising the cost of every coercive move until the Trump project can no longer advance its fascist goals.
27.01.2026 22:51 — 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Year One of Trump 2.0: Nothing More Than a Full Year of Miscalculation
Year One of Trump 2.0 was not a year of strategy. It was a year of cumulative miscalculation — miscalculation born not of ignorance, but…
Dear #BlueWizards, I don't want anyone to get the wrong point... Trump miscalculating is not something to celebrate.
johnrraymondesq.medium.com/year-one-of-...
@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
27.01.2026 22:51 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
This is not a question of Obama’s sincerity. It is a question of his strategic framing. If you misclassify the actor, you choose the wrong moves.
Minnesota is not a customer-service failure inside federalism; it is a demonstration of power under conditions of contested legitimacy—an asymmetric campaign that uses spectacle, intimidation, and narrative preemption to widen the regime’s operational latitude.
The correct response is not to ask for “constructive cooperation.” The correct response is to build a wall of consequences so thick the regime cannot walk through it.
27.01.2026 22:36 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
YouTube video by Pete Buttigieg
The Ground Is Shifting
The video in question: www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK6k...
27.01.2026 06:29 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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