Why did the LDP lose the 2025 House of Councillors election... & what comes next for Japanese politics?
New Perspectives piece in @pacificaffairs.bsky.social by @kglee98.bsky.social traces the causes and consequences of the snap House of Representatives election.
Read it in our forthcoming issue!
(6/6)In navigating these turbulent developments, I hope this piece contributes meaningfully to ongoing debates about Japan’s evolving party system and political future.
(5/6)What lies ahead for Japanese politics? Since late 2023, the political fortunes of parties and politicians have resembled a roller coaster. While LDP dominance appears to be back in play, it is far from certain that the current configuration represents a stable endpoint.
(4/6)However, the Upper House has veto powers over key appointments. Moreover, constitutional revision requires 2/3 support in both houses before a referendum. Also, repeated overrides on controversial legislation could provoke public backlash, making multiparty dynamics of the Upper House relevant.
(3/6)And when the article was accepted, PM Takaichi called a snap election for the Lower House that ended with an LDP landslide victory. Now that the LDP holds a 2/3 majority in the Lower House which is sufficient to override an Upper House veto, it may appear that my article has lost its relevance.
(2/6)The timing of the publication could hardly have been worse. The day after I drafted the initial version, former PM Ishiba announced his resignation. By the time I resubmitted the manuscript, the LDP–Komeito coalition had shifted to an LDP–JIP (Japan Innovation Party) coalition.
(1/6)The paper examines the causes of the LDP’s electoral losses, explores the rise of populist parties such as Sanseito, and analyzes the political changes triggered by the election, including a PM change, coalition reshuffling, and ends with implications for inter-party dynamics.
My paper on Japan’s Upper House election last July has been published Open Access in @pacificaffairs.bsky.social.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
