Tom Dannenbaum

Double Preemption, Imminence, and the U.S. Attack Against Iran Rubio’s argument that Operation Epic Fury was preemptive self-defense is not credible and does not satisfy the necessary precondition.

The Trump Administration keeps throwing new arguments at the wall to see what might stick--but each one is worse than the last.

This is an excellent piece by @eliavl.bsky.social explaining why Rubio's recent "double preemption" argument is a non-starter.

www.justsecurity.org/133093/preem...

Spain and its leaders understand their international legal obligations and are acting accordingly.

The UK's legal position on the use of its bases in the Middle East is solid with one glaring hole: The US cannot act in collective self-defence with the Gulf States. It is the aggressor. Ergo the UK cannot assist the US in collective self-defence.

Commenting Anew on Article 23 of Geneva Convention IV New Commentary on Geneva Convention IV describes Article 23 as "significantly diminished" in importance in today's legal context.

As part of our joint symposium with @ejiltalk.bsky.social and @icrclawpolicy.bsky.social, @tomdannenbaum.bsky.social analyzes the new @icrc.org Commentary deeming the GC IV's Article 23 as “significantly diminished” in importance in today’s legal context:

www.justsecurity.org/131513/comme...

Trump’s Case for War With Iran Faces Growing Scrutiny U.S. intelligence showed threats from Iran loomed, as they had for years. But they were not imminent.

"U.S. officials and lawmakers with access to classified information ... say the administration’s assertions are incomplete, unsubstantiated, or flat-out wrong."

- Wall Street Journal

Iran human rights group HRANA:

"The total number of reported civilian deaths stands at 742, including 176 children under 18, with 624 reported deaths currently . under review"

"Reported civilian injuries since 28 February 2026 stand at 971, including 115 children"

www.en-hrana.org/the-third-da...

Agreed.

Rubio's statement is self-evidently absurd. What a disgrace.

“Luxembourg state bank Spuerkeess decided at the end of February 2025 to close the two accounts held in the name of the International Criminal Court … because it was apparently concerned about jeopardising its business with the United States”

www.luxtimes.lu/luxembourg/l...

My contribution to the @justsecurity.org, @ejiltalk.bsky.social, & @icrclawpolicy.bsky.social symposium on the new GC IV Commentary focuses on its characterization of Art. 23 as “significantly diminished.”
Why this matters, what the Commentary got right, & where further clarification is warranted 👇🏻

The U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran are illegal.

Iran's attacks in Gulf States are illegal.

The U.K. defending Gulf States is legal, but allowing the U.S. to use its bases is illegal.

In short, everyone is violating international law and should stop.

My latest @justsecurity.org

Beirut is being rocked. Friends and family reporting huge explosions.

“As bad as it’s ever been”, exclaimed one.

Lebanese PM:

"the launching of rockets from southern Lebanon... endangers Lebanon's security and safety and provides Israel with pretexts to continue its attacks on it. We will not allow the country to be dragged into new adventures"

Now twelve countries where there have been missile attacks, drone strikes and explosions since the US and Israel launched their unlawful attack on Iran:

Iran, Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Syria

Reckless.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...

FWIW, this is sec. 2(c) of the War Powers Resolution:

Trump's #Iran war is flatly illegal (see analysis from last week below), triggering expected waves of escalation, without any discernible strategy.

It also presents a pressure test for a severely strained international order.

Read @bechamilton.bsky.social:

www.justsecurity.org/132773/us-ir...

Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.

Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say reut.rs/4l9SCAs

Opinion | Trump’s Strikes on Iran Were Unlawful. Here’s Why That Matters.

The strikes on Iran are blatantly illegal. I explained in June why the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were unlawful under US and international law. Everything I wrote then is true today, but this is a far larger assault with far graver consequences.

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/o...

@GOP on X: Vote the pro-peace ticket. Vote Trump-Vance 🇺🇸 04 Nov 24

The lies about Trump's approach to war and foreign policy were ubiquitous. Just a few.

Aggressive war entails legally unjustified killing, maiming, and destruction. It is an atrocity crime.

As the Human Rights Committee has emphasized, the killing inflicted in such a campaign violates the right to life.

The American-Israeli Strikes on Iran are (Again) Manifestly Illegal After weeks of threats, the United States, joined by Israel, has launched military strikes against Iran. It remains to be seen whether these strikes will be fairly limited, or are the opening of an ex...

“The violation of the Charter here is simply as plain as it could possibly be.”
Marko Milanovic
@ejiltalk.bsky.social

www.ejiltalk.org/the-american...

We continue to stride toward the precipice, without even a veneer of justification.

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

il.usembassy.gov/travel-advis...

RSF attack in North Darfur displaces 3,000, doctors warn of catastrophe - Sudan Tribune February 26, 2026 (MISTARIHA) – Approximately 3,000 people have fled the town of Mistariha in North Darfur after it was overrun by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Sudan Doctors Network said on Thu...

The Sudan Doctors Network warns of an "imminent catastrophe" as 3,000 people flee Mistariha, North Darfur, following a violent RSF takeover. Displaced families lack food, water, and shelter after drone strikes and looting targeted homes and medical clinics.

sudantribune.com/article/311160

“The agents gained entry by stating they were police searching for a missing child.” Message from Claire Shipman, Columbia’s Acting President, to the Columbia community, sent a few minutes ago.

Glad that @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social was able to make this happen but also let’s not normalize a system in which the secret police kidnap students and then they are released only because the mayor makes a call to the president.

Big Tech’s Moment of Truth on AI Safety AI companies should resist the urge to undercut Anthropic and use their collective leverage to make clear that access to frontier models comes with limits.

1/ Must read by Mariana Olaizola Rosenblat on Big Tech's Moment of Truth as DoD Secretary Hegseth threatens #Anthropic over what would amount to unrestricted use of its flagship frontier #AI model #Claude.

www.justsecurity.org/132536/big-t...