Marc Lamberts

In this article, I speak about the theoretical framework, methodologies, different versions of the model and how we can implement it as a complementary model to xG. 3000ish words. Pretty proud of the work.

Expected Shot Danger: building an alternative to xG Expected goals. I don’t even know where to start with how I feel about this particular metric, but I’m going to try it anyway. I feel that…

Expected Shot Danger: Modelling danger probabilities from shots 📊⚽

Over the past year I've been developing a shot-based model that started as an alternative for xG, but has developed as model that ranks shot danger based on blocked and unblocked shots.

marclamberts.medium.com/expected-sho...

I wrote something. 3000ish words.

Morninggg

Lessons from the NFL: Explosive plays analytics Converting plays from NFL/NCAA to football with Explosive Value Models

Lessons from the NFL for football: Explosive plays analytics

marclamberts.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

Oh thank you so much!!

Developed a new model, Expected Transition Threat (xTT): losing/winning a ball in a certain area will lead to conceding high/low threat.

To analyse, we need to look at other metrics like average offensive line, possession and style of play, but this is fun.

A mid-process metric: Emergence Index Introducing a work in progress in measuring development in football

Emergence Index: Can we use a mid-research metric to draw conclusions about talent potential? ⚽️📊

Introducing a work in progress in measuring development in football using ages + minutes to assess potential talents.

marclamberts.substack.com/p/a-mid-proc...

Emergence Index is an attempt to put season-level data into an index to see potential vs stability with age/minutes played as important factor.

Exciting times, finally posting a new article again. I'm in the midst of a big research on how we can use data to predict future performances and mid-process you create metrics/scores to help you along.

There's merit in sharing the process, even if the results might be negative

I have an idea how my previous account was deactivated, and it's ridiculously petty. Can't keep me down though. LinkedIn Lords to be observed.

Apparently I wasn't allowed to look at LinkedIn Lords anymore, so here's my new LinkedIn if you want to connect;

www.linkedin.com/in/marc-lamb...

Expected Danger: modelling a hybrid shot model with emphasis on blocked shots Introducing a shot value model that looks for location and outcome to assert danger coming from shooting

marclamberts.substack.com/p/expected-d...

All's Well That Ends Well... With a Long Throw-in A data analysis of long throw-ins in the Top 5 European leagues + Eredivisie

All's Well That Ends Well... With a Long Throw-in (from 27-09-2025)

A data analysis of long throw-ins in the Top 5 European leagues + Eredivisie

marclamberts.substack.com/p/alls-well-...

What tactical state happens after a dribble? Using Hidden Markov Models on dribbles to see how much a dribbles progresses attacks in the English Premier League 2025-2026.

What tactical state happens after a dribble?

marclamberts.substack.com/p/what-tacti...

Lessons from the NFL: Explosive plays analytics Converting plays from NFL/NCAA to football with Explosive Value Models

Lessons from the NFL: Explosive Plays Analytics ⚽️🏈📊

I turn to the NFL analytics and adapted their Explosive Plays for football. The focus is on making plays from possession, which involve goal kicks, deep free kicks, kick-offs, and defensive throw-ins.
marclamberts.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

Chain Reaction Tackle Value: how impactful are won tackles in attacking progression Looking at the impact in Feyenoord - PSV 2-3 during the 2024-2025 Eredivisie season

Chain Reaction Tackle Value: how impactful are won tackles in attacking progression

marclamberts.substack.com/p/chain-reac...

Introducing the Goalkeeper Value Model (GVM) Creating an actionable Goalkeeper Value Model that can be used in performance analysis + set piece analysis

ICYMI: Goalkeeper Value Model

Creating an actionable Goalkeeper Value Model that can be used in performance analysis + set piece analysis

marclamberts.substack.com/p/introducin...

Morninggg

Lessons from the NFL: Explosive plays analytics Converting plays from NFL/NCAA to football with Explosive Value Models

Lessons from the NFL: Explosive Plays Analytics ⚽️🏈📊

I turn to the NFL analytics and adapted their Explosive Plays for football. The focus is on making plays from possession, which involve goal kicks, deep free kicks, kick-offs, and defensive throw-ins.

marclamberts.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

VVV-Venlo play football again. It's been ages I've been to a live game as a fan.

I might look into writing a paper on this.

I focus a lot on set pieces in football and I think we are noticing a reliance on set pieces. The naturale of "plays" in American Football can give us an insight how we can run set pieces: runners vs blockers for example, but also runs and movement in the NBA/Collega BB.

The Sky is the limit: Introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating ⚽️📊

Using correlation we can see that there is little predictability between traditional aerial dominance metrics and points per game. With ASIR, we have a higher correlation.
marclamberts.substack.com/p/the-sky-is...

Been into diving into NFL analytics, and I feel like a kid again.

Also well aware these comments don't scream confidence, and confidence is what employers would like to see - but it's important to address these things nonetheless

Really going through that past 2 years, but also: what should I focus on? Men’s football? Women’s football? Recruitment or data analysis? Etc.

It’s good to recognise that these thoughts happen with many in said “industry”

It’s good have a path in front of you, but in all honesty we don’t speak enough about in professional football: the doubts that can occur in the analysis/recruitment fields.

Am I good enough? Should I do things differently? Why are my peers progressing and I am not?

The Sky is the limit: introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating (ASIR) A data-driven look at why traditional aerial dominance is an analytical dead end

The Sky is the limit: Introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating ⚽️📊

Using correlation we can see that there is little predictability between traditional aerial dominance metrics and points per game. With ASIR, we have a higher correlation.

open.substack.com/pub/marclamb...

The Sky is the limit: introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating (ASIR) A data-driven look at why traditional aerial dominance is an analytical dead end

The Sky is the limit: Introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating ⚽️📊

Using correlation we can see that there is little predictability between traditional aerial dominance metrics and points per game. With ASIR, we have a higher correlation.

open.substack.com/pub/marclamb...