The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? ⚽️
I looked at zone 14 usage in the Premier League from 2021-22 to 2025-26 and found that zone 14 still plays a vital role in attack, but in much different and less dominant ways than we might think.
marclamberts.medium.com/the-stagnati...
Introducing Entropy-Adjusted xG: Measuring Repeatability in Attacking Performance 💻📊
Using entropy-analysis to see which part of traditional xG can be reproduced regardless of season, club or level. Case study with 4+ seasons of Premier League shots.
marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
Morning.
The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? ⚽️
I looked at zone 14 usage in the Premier League from 2021-22 to 2025-26 and found that zone 14 still plays a vital role in attack, but in much different and less dominant ways than we might think.
marclamberts.medium.com/the-stagnati...
Morning! Have a great day 😊
Thank you John!
Birthday. Chapter 34. Never thought I would make it, but here we are. Bless you my friends.
Modelling Post-Save Rebound Sequences with Hidden Markov Models
Using event data from Swedish Allsvenskan, I try to find value from parried saves and post-save sequences using Hidden Markov Models and Logistic Regression with Lasso-Ridge regularisation.
marclamberts.medium.com/modelling-po...
Morning!
It's good to remind myself that my worth is absolutely not in the reaction of social media to my models; however, it can be hard to put in all these hours to share something in public and get no response.
Expected Shot Dange: Building an alternative to xG
marclamberts.medium.com/expected-sho...
Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention.
How can we add value to second balls and create meaningful insights from them?
marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
My new project: Rebound Value Models.
My first look (WIP) at adding value to parries and consequent rebounds after shots. Using Hidden Markov Models to generate different insights.
Full article and explanation coming soon.
Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls ⚽️📊📈
With this model and consequent metrics, we can capture the xSBR of long balls from the defensive third to enhance dominance higher up the pitch.
marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
Happy new year to you too!
2026 innit.
Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls ⚽️📊📈
With this model and consequent metrics, we can capture the xSBR of long balls from the defensive third to enhance dominance higher up the pitch.
marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
Thank you so much, Alex!
Great to see @lambertsmarc.bsky.social and @begriffis.bsky.social on this list, as well as a piece by @shelatneel.bsky.social for @analyticsfc.bsky.social
3 hours of sleep. This should be interesting 🤔
Oh I feel you. Same.
How are you doing ?:)
Let’s go.
Morninggg
AFCON
In this article, I speak about the theoretical framework, methodologies, different versions of the model and how we can implement it as a complementary model to xG. 3000ish words. Pretty proud of the work.
Expected Shot Danger: Modelling danger probabilities from shots 📊⚽
Over the past year I've been developing a shot-based model that started as an alternative for xG, but has developed as model that ranks shot danger based on blocked and unblocked shots.
marclamberts.medium.com/expected-sho...
I wrote something. 3000ish words.
Morninggg
Lessons from the NFL for football: Explosive plays analytics
marclamberts.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...
