Surreal

I want to also add that my assumption would have been the same as yours and maybe that changes for HJ if I give more bet sizing options on the turn. Still confused about it to be honest.

I didn’t investigate too much but I did ai solver this spot and the default single bet size the hj wanted use was like 2/3. Shocking to me was that HJ bet basically the same percent of range in both scenarios. Allowing donks and forcing a bb turn range check. The bet frequency was somewhere 50+%.

Good follow up point. Here is HJ on the turn facing a check. Though I’m now curious what the bet percent would be if we node locked bb to play range check turn. I could AI solve that with wizard to check.

Greatly appreciate your time taken for the discussion, and now to try and figure some heuristics to pick up on when to apply this.

Also the graph in this example makes this an even more rare case then

Does this mean that we are in a sense leaving our checking range out to dry if our overall range is already in a rough spot? Is this an attempt to make the best of a bad situation to over realize or at least realize closer to 100% with a stronger subset of our range?

Yeah sorry, lacking a few details due to character limit constraints. The exact example here would be 20bb chip ev hj vs bb and the HJ bets 50% flop. Now on the turn big blind leads 22.7% of range. Equities are 45.2% for the big blind and big blinds range is 3.9% trips while the HJ’s range is 14.1%.

@thinkingpoker.bsky.social Just moved over from Twitter and wanted to start by asking you a theory question.

Why do we sometimes find donks when our range is both at an equity disadvantage and nut disadvantage? Example I found on wizard is HJ vs BB on Ts8h4h then turn Td, but I’ve seen this before