Armitage's Story | American Experience | PBS
In 1975 Richard Armitage was a special forces advisor in Saigon.
There will be many remembrances, but if you donβt already know what Rich did in the last days of the Vietnam War, then you should watch this.
Wise. Fierce. Courageous. And always a lover of gossip.
He was larger than life. Hard to believe heβs gone.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/america...
14.04.2025 22:09 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Today was a tough day.
Most mornings the last decade my day started with a phone call from Rich Armitage. But not this morning.
Rich was a friend, a mentor, and a business partner. He was my biggest supporter (and sometimes my toughest critic).
He was a giant. What a life.
14.04.2025 22:09 β π 9 π 1 π¬ 2 π 0
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24.03.2025 22:18 β π 48 π 14 π¬ 0 π 2
Wilson Center Announces 2025-26 Wilson China Fellowship Class
Delighted to join so many fantastic scholars as part of the Wilson China Fellowship for the coming year.
Thanks to the Wilson Center and Carnegie Corporation for bringing together this great group!
www.wilsoncenter.org/article/wils...
07.03.2025 13:01 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Really useful discussion of the core tensions to Trump's foreign policy strategy.
06.03.2025 14:38 β π 2 π 2 π¬ 0 π 0
Trumpβs Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment
The decision to prioritize China or retreat to the Americas is the central tension for Trump's foreign policy team.
Prioritization or Retrenchment?
I think this is the central question for the US strategic community today.
Hereβs my new piece trying to add some historical perspective to this the strategic debate. Read it here:
theamericanenterprise.com/the-trump-ad...
06.03.2025 14:23 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 1
Over the course of this project, I've acquired many debts to supportive friends, mentors, and institutions
I can't thank everyone who made this possible, but am so appreciate of your guidance and encouragement
25.02.2025 14:18 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Today's the day: Tides of Fortune is officially released!
I'm so excited to get to share this book with the world after over a decade of work on this project.
We've got a video explainer coming soon, and a bunch of launch events, but for now, a few words of thanks...
25.02.2025 14:18 β π 15 π 2 π¬ 3 π 0
Chinaβs Self-Defeating Strategy
Power projection once made empiresβnow it can undo them.
So the United States has a unique opportunity to counter China's military modernization, if we move smartly and expeditiously.
But change is hard and great powers do not have a great track record making meaningful defense reforms absent a major war. [5/5]
www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...
21.02.2025 12:17 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
So China will likely continue to invest in power projection, but face increasing costs/risks in doing so.
How should the United States respond? Invest in a three part force mix:
1) Mass (small and cheap systems)
2) Stealth (SSNs and B-21s)
3) Power Projection (CVNs, etc.)
21.02.2025 12:17 β π 5 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
But China's embrace of power projection is terribly timed.
As the war in Ukraine has shown, the balance between control and denial has shifted.
The control-denial balance now favors denial, disadvantaging traditional power projection.
This has been underway for 200 years!
21.02.2025 12:17 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
In Tides of Fortune, I argue that China is following the path of a typical rising power.
As Chinese leaders came to view China as strong around 2008, they invested more in power projection.
This was inevitable. It is what strong and rising powers do historically.
21.02.2025 12:17 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Chinaβs Self-Defeating Strategy
Power projection once made empiresβnow it can undo them.
Today in
@ForeignAffairs
I preview part of my book, which argues that China's turn toward power projection was both inevitable and badly timed (for Beijing).
Here's the short version... [1/5]
www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...
21.02.2025 12:17 β π 32 π 8 π¬ 3 π 3
One more week until Tides of Fortune is released!
Feels good to finally hold a copy in my hand. So now it is real, but whether it is spectacular will be up to others to judge :)
yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
18.02.2025 13:58 β π 15 π 2 π¬ 1 π 2
I think Kim would fall under the βfrenemiesβ category - a leader with near total domestic control but who is in charge a country not-aligned with the United States. Suggests we might see engagement again between Trump and Kim (although not necessarily any sort of actual deal).
06.02.2025 13:58 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Trumpβs Predictable Unpredictability on Taiwan
Under Trump 2.0, Taiwanβs fate is uncertain.
What does a second Trump administration mean for Taiwan? My take here for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social:
thedispatch.com/article/trum...
03.02.2025 11:55 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
I frequently get asked how Donald Trump's personal interactions might shape US relationships in Asia over the next four years.
Here's my take for RSIS:
- Trump prizes "strong" (and conservative) leaders
- Alignment with the US is not a precondition
www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...
29.01.2025 18:59 β π 4 π 6 π¬ 1 π 0
IP25001 | Can America Embrace Multipolarity?
SYNOPSIS Todayβs world order can be described as βfragmented multipolarityβ β which resembles unipolarity, bipolarity and multipolarity simultaneously β and the United States under incoming president ...
Will the Trump team seek unipolarity or embrace multipolarity?
Primacists emphasize peace through strength, but prioritizers say US power has declined and we canβt be everywhere. Who will prevail in Trump 2.0?
I examine this in a short piece for RSIS:
www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...
07.01.2025 19:33 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
My thoughts on Joe Biden and his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad U.S. Steel decisionβ¦
www.aei.org/foreign-and-...
03.01.2025 21:11 β π 13 π 4 π¬ 3 π 1
Want to know what the Congress has planned for Asia in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act?
Noah Burke and I read all the Asia provisions so you don't have to. Here are 5 things to watch (plus a full list of all Asia-related sections).
www.aei.org/foreign-and-...
16.12.2024 22:24 β π 18 π 7 π¬ 1 π 0
On AUSTRALIA IN THE WORLD, @zackcooper.bsky.social & I talk through Trump 2.0. What do we know about Trumpworldβs foreign policy at this point? What are the implications for Australiaβs management of the alliance?
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/a...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4To2...
26.11.2024 23:47 β π 5 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Net Assessment is back!
Listen here: www.warontherocks.com/2023/12/dysf...
11.12.2023 20:11 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Professor of International Relations at Griffith University, Indiaβs foreign policy, Indo-Pacific stuff, snakes when I find one. Usual caveats.
Analyst--all things defense
Professor, School of IR, University of St. Andrews; researching authoritarianism, ethnicity, militaries, conflict, and democratisation.
New York Times reporter focusing on Russia/Ukraine.
World Orders and World/Global History, Great Powers, Asia, China-India; Usual caveats; New Book - Divergent Worlds (Yale University Press, 2025)
Professor Rory Medcalf AM | Head of the National Security College at the Australian National University, Canberra | Indo-Pacific strategy | An independent Australian worldview
SEAsian politics, civ-mil relations, int'l security. Moving away from @terenceleepols
Assistant Professor of Political Science, University at Albany; Nonresident Fellow, Stimson Center
America in the world, past and present.
Senior Fellow, American Statecraft Program, @carnegieendowment.org. Visiting Lecturer, Yale Law School. Historian and author of Tomorrow, the World: The Birth of U.S. Global Supremacy. Views my own.
Ex Pentagon & State Department β’ Recovering academic β’ Author of No Conquest, No Defeat & co-author of Triple Axis: Iranβs Relations with Russia and China
Associate researcher @csds.bsky.social | Phd in Political Science from @brusselsschool.bsky.social at VUB | Research on Asia-Pacific security & Chinese Foreign Policy | Book on China's Coercion in the Asia-Pacific Region
Assistant Professor at George Washington University | technology and int'l politics | newsletter on China's AI landscape: http://chinai.substack.com
Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations. Former advisor to Secretaries of Commerce, State, and USTR. Author, THE DIGITAL SILK ROAD: http://bit.ly/ChinaDSR
Head of @SWP_IntSecurity; Security & Defense, NATO, Europe, π«π·&π©πͺ; via: @CSS_Zurich @sciencepo @EU_ISS @unibirmingham; mom of 3, π«π· knight, here personal capacity.
Director William & Mary's Global Research Institute | Prof. of International Relations | TRIP Survey (Bridging Academic-Policy Gap) | AidData (China's Development Finance) | International Organizations | Beer | Miami Dolphins https://mjtierney.weebly.com
θ΄ΊεηΆ | Deputy Director and Fellow, @csis.org @chinapower.csis.org | Working at the intersection of China, security, foreign policy, and tech
https://www.csis.org/people/brian-hart
PhD Student in the Department of Government @ Harvard
michaelbcerny.net
