Ed Hill (@edmhill) — Bluesky Profile

17 hours ago

Characterization and forecast of global influenza subtype dynamics - Nature Health A global analysis sheds light on the dynamics and features involved in influenza subtype composition in epidemic seasons between 2000 and 2023 and presents a series of tools to predict next year’s com...

💫 New paper out in @nathealth.nature.com 💫

Characterization and forecast of global influenza subtype dynamics

www.nature.com/articles/s44...

We analyzed the subtype compositions of countries' influenza waves globally to understand their drivers and test predictions of next season's composition.

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2 days ago

Avian influenza (bird flu) in Europe, Russia and the UK Preliminary and updated outbreak assessments for avian influenza (bird flu) in Europe, Russia and the UK.

6/ The repository of outbreak assessment documents (from Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs + Animal & Plant Health Agency) for HPAI in Great Britain and Europe.

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/p...

/end

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Conclusion

Since our previous assessment on 19 December 2025, cases of HPAI H5Nx in wild birds in Great Britain have continued to steadily fall from very high levels week on week to around 20 cases per week. These are mainly resident waterbirds such as mute swans, Canada and greylag geese. Although the number of cases in wild birds continues to fall, there are still a number of reports weekly in various locations in Great Britain including inland sites and across multiple waterbird species. Therefore, the national risk level for HPAI H5 in wild birds in Great Britain is maintained at VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly). Wild bird cases are continuing at high levels in Europe particularly in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. At this time of year (almost March), it is very unlikely that wild birds would fly from Continental Europe into Great Britain.

The risk to poultry where stringent biosecurity is maintained is decreasing in line with the decrease in wild bird cases as shown in the fall in the number of IPs each week. With no outbreaks in stringent biosecurity premises in the last month, the risk level for poultry with stringent biosecurity is reduced from medium to LOW (with medium uncertainty). The risk of infection of poultry in Great Britain with suboptimal biosecurity is maintained at HIGH (occurs very often) with medium uncertainty. This risk level reflects
the continued considerable infection pressure from wild birds at multiple locations in Great Britain, and the upcoming large-scale movements of waterfowl within Great Britain as part of outward migration. Good biosecurity practices remain of utmost importance.

We are continuing to closely monitor the situation in Europe and to review the risk.

It is important that stringent adherence to good biosecurity practices is maintained.

5/ HPAI risk levels in Great Britain

▶️ Wild birds: VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly)

▶️ Poultry exposure risk (biosecurity suboptimal): HIGH (occurs very often) w/ medium uncertainty

▶️ Poultry exposure risk (stringent biosecurity): LOW w/ medium uncertainty

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2 days ago

Europe

Between 20 December 2025 and 26 February 2026 there were a total of 2,395 HPAI H5 events in domestic poultry, captive birds and non-poultry including wild birds across Europe reported by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). Of these reports on WOAH, 2,132 were in wild birds, 92 in non-commercial poultry and 177 were poultry outbreaks. In total there were 2,100 wild bird cases of HPAI H5N1 including 2 in Iceland in January 2026. Of interest, there were single cases of HPAI H5N2 in wildfowl in Latvia (mallard duck) and Sweden (barnacle goose) in November 2025, although HPAI H5N2 has not been detected further west this season. There was also a case of HPAI H5N6 in a gull in Portugal in November. Positive reports according to data from IZSVe (2025) have fluctuated at around 200 per week since January 2026 as shown in Figure 3. Reports continue to be dominated by the large number of wild bird cases, although the number of cases in common cranes has greatly diminished with 209 reported since 20 December 2026 and most of these (164) detected in Germany in December with 41 in France, all detected in December.

Figure: Weekly numbers of HPAI H5 positive reports in Europe according to data from IZSVe (2026) from December 2025 to 27 February 2026. The figure shows levels fluctuating at around 200 positive reports per week through late December and into February. Wild bird cases in grey account for the major proportion relative to the poultry outbreaks in red and purple.

4/ HPAI H5 in poultry & wild birds in Europe

🗓️ Between 20 Dec 2025 – 26 Feb 2026 reported by The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).

▶️ 2,395 HPAI H5 event reports in domestic poultry, captive birds and non-poultry including wild birds (2,132 from wild birds)

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2 days ago

Wild birds

The weekly number of HPAI H5-positive wild bird cases in Great Britain is shown in Figure 2. Between 19 December and 27 February (based on laboratory testing date), HPAI H5 has been detected in 284 found-dead wild birds, including 26 wild bird species (data
available https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza in-wild-birds ), across 72 counties. Wild bird cases since 19 December have been reported at both inland and coastal locations across Great Britain (Map 2). The majority of the findings were in England (189), with 86 in Scotland and 9 in Wales (based on laboratory testing date)

It should be noted that there is a variable lag period between the collection of found-dead wild birds to sampling, testing, and the reporting of results.

It is important to note that these surveillance figures for Great Britain are based on passive surveillance of found dead birds reported to Defra by the general public and as such, may be affected by several factors including frequency of visitors accessing areas with bird populations, the potential for immunity in the wild bird population (which may result in
fewer birds developing clinical disease and or dying with HPAI), variable surveillance system sensitivity, as well as the size, location and accessibility of carcasses, meaning that this wild bird surveillance does not necessarily capture all of the cases that occur. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.

Figure: Detections per week of HPAI H5 positive found-dead wild birds in Great Britain since 28 September 2025 to 27 February 2026 (based on test date).

3/ Wild birds in Great Britain: HPAI situation assessment

🔎 Data based on passive surveillance of found dead birds

💬 In 19 Dec 2025 – 27 Feb 2026, HPAI H5 detected in 284 found-dead wild birds, in 26 species, across 72 counties.

Detected cases by nation
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 189
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 86
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 9

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2 days ago

Situation assessment
Here, an HPAI H5Nx event refers to a report of HPAI in poultry, or a location with at least one HPAI H5Nx positive wild bird. Individual HPAI H5Nx positive wild birds are referred to as cases.

United Kingdom

Poultry Infected Premises

Since our last outbreak assessment on 19 December 2025 (to 24 February 2026) there
have been 25 infected premises (IPs) confirmed with HPAI H5N1 in poultry. Of these, 18
occurred in England and 7 in Scotland (see Map 1 for approximate locations). These have
been reported in a mixture of backyard and commercial premises housing poultry. The
majority of recent IPs in Great Britain have been genotyped as DI.2.1. The number of IPs
per week in Great Britain peaked at 14 in week 45 (see Figure 1) prompting the increase in
the risk level for poultry with suboptimal biosecurity from high to very high in our previous
outbreak assessment on 11 November 2025.

However, since week 45, the number of IPs per week has fallen week on week with on average around 1 per week in February.

Figure: Number of HPAI H5N1-infected premises (IPs) in Great Britain each week from 28 September to 27 February 2026. Graph shows number of IPs coming down from a peak of 14 per week in week 45 to around 1 per week in February.

2/ UK domestic poultry: HPAI situation assessment

💬 “Since our last outbreak assessment on 19 December 2025 (to 24 Feburary 2026) there have been 25 Infected Premises confirmed with HPAI H5N1 in poultry”

🐔 IP by nation: 18 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, 7 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

📊 Mixture of backyard & commercial premises housing poultry.

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2 days ago

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

Preliminary Outbreak Assessment #5

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Great Britain & Europe

27 February 2026

Disease report
In our previous outbreak assessment on 19 December 2025 we noted that cases of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5 in wild birds were continuing at high levels both in Europe and Great Britain and the wild bird risk level in Great Britain was still considered to be VERY HIGH. Since then, wild bird cases in Great Britain have continued, albeit slowly falling from the peak in December, with 273 more cases of HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4b events involving ‘found-dead’ wild birds (number based on laboratory testing date). The total in Great Britain since the start of the HPAI season on 1 October 2025 is now 854. Of these 854, 839 have been confirmed as HPAI H5N1, 11 as HPAI H5Nx and 4 as HPAI H5N5.

Wild bird cases since our previous outbreak assessment on 19 December 2025 extend across most of Great Britain with many inland cases. Wild bird cases have slowly fallen in the first 2 months of 2026 roughly halving from around 40 per week in January to 20 per week in February with just 11 cases in the last week of February. Most wild bird cases in Great Britain in 2026 have been in resident water birds namely mute swans, Canada geese and greylag geese, with some cases in migratory pink-footed geese. There were two cases in seabirds, namely a puffin in Tayside and a gannet in Suffolk. Also there was a case of the BB ‘gull strain’ (as opposed to the DI.2.1 genotype) in a herring gull in Wales in late January. Given the relatively high number of cases in wild bird ongoing in February, the wild bird risk level across Great Britain is maintained at VERY HIGH. The number of migratory waterbirds overwintering in Great Britain will have peaked in December and January and few birds are now expected to fly over to Great Britain from northern Europe, where positive reports of HPAI H5 have continued…

1/ Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Great Britain & Europe - DEFRA outbreak assessment for 27 Feb 2026. #IDsky #IDEpi #OneHealth #H5N1 🧪

🗓️ Report period: 19 Dec 2025 – 27 Feb 2026

🔗 to report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69aef7...

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2 days ago

@liverpooluni.bsky.social's Dr Edward Hill and Dr Samuel Ball have developed and produced a podcast called Health Data Decoded.

👉 www.liverpool.ac.uk/health-and-l...

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2 days ago

A figure showing a 'Simplot' which plots the similarity of a genome to other genomes across a graph, with similarity on the Y-axis and the genome position on the x-axis. Many coloured lines show the sequences being compared - those closest to the top (similarity of 1) are the closest matches in different parts of the genome.

1/5

Introducing SimPlot-CL! 🧬
Recombination plays an important role in viral evolution. Similarity plots are a great way to visualize recombination patterns, but generating them across many genomes can be cumbersome

(Work with my student, Keno Strotjohann!)
📂 github.com/hodcroftlab/simplot-cl

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2 days ago

Two postdoc positions open at SUMOC (Sorbonne Université | INSERM), Paris, within the EPIcx lab.

🦠 Network epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (ARCANE)
🧠 Coupled behavior–disease modeling (PREVIX)

2-y positions | Start June 2026
#epidemiology #networks #matrices

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3 days ago

Excellent TLDR of part 2 of NZ's Covid-19 Inquiry by @marcdaalder.bsky.social
1. Vaccine safety & approvals process successful
2. Some mandates lasted too long or went too far
3. The need for a changed testing strategy could have been foreseen
4. Lockdown decisions were ‘reasonable & evidence-based’

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3 days ago

What you have told us At the recent launch, we presented an overview of the wonderful input on GSIDD that we have already received from our community.Based on our engagement with organisations and direct input from so many...

2/ ❓ What next?

🚧 Formal structures of GSIDD are to be developed & put in place.

6️⃣ GSIDD has opportunity to support the community in six key ways.
🧠 Knowledge exchange
🧪 Research impact
🎓 Career growth
👥 Networking
📦 Resource sharing
🗣️ Advocacy

🔗: www.gsidd.org/post/what-yo...

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3 days ago

1/ 👥 Two online sessions to officially launch process to establish the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics had 230 attendees! @gs-idd.bsky.social #IDsky 🧪

🔗 'We have launched' post by @bansallab.bsky.social: www.gsidd.org/post/we-have...

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4 days ago

New post, on whether I could get Claude Code to complete a data task that had taken me AGES a decade ago…

kucharski.substack.com/p/how-much-t...

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4 days ago

👩‍👩‍👧‍👧 Great to see so many visitors at 'Meet the Scientists' event yesterday by @livuniengagehls.bsky.social at World Museum in Liverpool!

🦠 Enjoyed supporting @therexuol.bsky.social who ran a great set of 'Menacing Microbes & Magnificent Medicines' activities.

🔗: www.liverpool.ac.uk/health-and-l...

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5 days ago

Deep untargeted wastewater metagenomic sequencing from sewersheds across the United States Wastewater monitoring enables non-invasive, population-scale tracking of community infections independent of healthcare-seeking behavior and clinical diagnosis. Metagenomic sequencing extends this cap...

Happy to report that we submitted a new manuscript this week.

The manuscript is abour our work untargeting wastewater sequencing as a technique for monitoring viral pathogens from wastewater. @lennijusten.bsky.social
1/
medrxiv.org/cgi/content/...

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6 days ago

1. A #flu update:
Another 11 children have died this flu season, bringing the total to date to 90. #CDC says of those with known vaccination status, 85% weren't fully vaccinated.
That number will continue to rise in coming weeks. But 2026 may not be as bad as 2025 for peds flu deaths.🤞🤞

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1 week ago

New avian influenza vaccine trials begin in UK New targeted trial in turkeys will test vaccine efficacy as part of fight to protect wild and captive birds

📄 Press release from Defra & APHA: New avian influenza vaccine trials begin in UK.

🦃 Targeted trial in turkeys in England to test vaccine efficacy, how surveillance can be managed to retain trade & how vaccines can help manage disease.

⏰ Trials will last for 24 weeks

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/n...

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1 week ago

TPI's strategic post Dr Tessa Prince recently joined a UK–South Africa workshop exploring how a One Health approach can help prevent future pandemics by improving surveillance of viruses in wildlife. Read more here: www.thepandemicinstitute.org/news/from-li...

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1 week ago

Six years since the inception of Digital Contact Tracing!

We've shown that privacy-preserving DCT could play a key, low-cost role in mitigating future outbreaks whilst simultaneously gathering valuable epi insights in real time.

michellekendall.github.io/2026/03/05/d...

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1 week ago

Global overview of the spread and impact of H5 clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI virus in wildlife, 2020-2024 - offlu Skip to PDF content

New OFFLU statement: "Global overview of the spread and impact of H5 clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI virus in wildlife, 2020-2024." This variant of avian influenza virus has shown unprecedented geographic expansion in wildlife in recent years. @fao.org @woahglobal.bsky.social 1/3

offlu.org/publications...

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1 week ago

Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States Author summary In this work, we developed a set of tools and methods designed to produce high-resolution visualizations, as well as to quantify the complex and intricate patterns associated with the s...

We are published! We quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two major waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA is online now!

By mapping the infections we were able to quantify the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the contiguous US and we also estimated the speed of spread! tinyurl.com/y87tjnmd

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1 week ago

Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States Author summary In this work, we developed a set of tools and methods designed to produce high-resolution visualizations, as well as to quantify the complex and intricate patterns associated with the s...

Three years ago we set out to visualize and quantitatively examine the movement of SARS-CoV-2 leading up to the first two major COVID-19 waves in the US. Today all that hard work "hit the shelves" at PLOSCompBio. 🛟 Watch the spread (we have movies) and read more here: dx.plos.org/10.1371/jour...

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1 week ago

4/ Impact for UK

🇬🇧 Risk of incursion of strains from Netherlands capable of infecting cattle considered very low (very rare but cannot be excluded).

⚠️ Associated uncertainty due to lack of sequence data on Netherlands strain. No comparison possible to strains circulating in wild birds in UK.

/end

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1 week ago

3/ Situation assessment

↔️ Not clear if the cows with antibodies represent limited cow-to-cow transmission or several individual exposures from a contaminated source (e.g. infected cat on site or ongoing detections of HPAI in wild birds in the area).

👤 No reports of human infection on the farm.

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1 week ago

2/ Situation assessment

🇳🇱 First report of HPAI antibodies in dairy cattle was reported by the Netherlands Authorities on 23 Jan 2026.

5️⃣ cows had antibodies against HPAI H5N1.

🐄 No current evidence of wider circulation of HPAI in cattle or mammalian-adapted strains circulating in the Netherlands.

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1 week ago

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Preliminary outbreak assessment
High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) antibodies in dairy cattle in the Netherlands

13 February 2026

Disease report summary.
The first report of HPAI antibodies in dairy cattle was reported by the Netherlands Authorities on 23 January 2026. Antibodies to HPAI H5N1 were found in a single cow, initially, which had experienced mastitis and breathing difficulties back in December. Sampling on the farm began after a sick cat from the farm tested positive for H5N1 and subsequently died in late December. Additional testing on the farm identified four other cows that had antibodies against HPAI H5N1. There was no evidence of active infection. Viral RNA could not be detected from any of the blood
or milk samples from cows on the farm, meaning sequencing of the strain present in the cattle was not possible. There were no reports of human infection on the farm.

There is no evidence of wider circulation of HPAI in cattle in the Netherlands or mammalian-adapted strains circulating in wild birds or poultry in the country. The risk of incursion of strains from the Netherlands capable of infecting cattle is therefore considered very low (very rare but cannot be excluded), with an associated uncertainty due to the lack of sequence data on the Netherlands strain, and hence no comparison possible to those strains still circulating in wild birds in the UK.

1/ 📄 Preliminary outbreak assessment: High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) antibodies in dairy cattle in the Netherlands. #OneHealth #IDsky 🧪

✍ Report dated 13 Feb 2026 by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a578...

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1 week ago

Bird flu (avian influenza): latest situation in England Find out about the latest bird flu situation in England and guidance for bird keepers and the public.

📰 UK HPAI H5N1 reported cases: 03 Mar 2026 #IDsky #OneHealth🧪

🐔 Commercial premises near Pickering, Yorkshire.

📊 95 confirmed HPAI H5N1 cases in poultry & other captive birds from 01 Oct 2025
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 75
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 9
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 7
🇬🇧 Northern Ireland: 4

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/n...

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1 week ago

$Abstract Infection with pnuemococcus bacteria is generally mild but can be more severe in the young and elderly, causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Although paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programmes and elderly pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) programmes have reduced cases, we estimate that pneumococcal infection still leads to direct health care costs of around \pounds68M and approximately 16 thousand QALY losses in England per year. The public health situation is complicated by the large number of interacting serotypes, such that while serotype-specific vaccines reduced the target serotypes others arose to replace them. We develop a novel (relatively) low-dimensional model to capture the interaction of 26 common pneumococcal serotypes. The model is matched to English IPD data from 2000-2023 and to five carriage studies (conducted in 2001/02, 2008, 2012, 2015 and 2018). When combined with a health economic approach, this model allows us to calculate the willingness to pay for paediatric vaccination with PCV7 (introduced in England in 2006), PCV13 (introduced in England in 2010) and the future vaccination of both the young and elderly with PCV20, which offers protection against 20 serotypes. Due to rapid serotype replacement, we find that the introduction of PCV7 vaccination in 2006 was not cost effective - a result that could not have been anticipated at the time, but is supported by simple statistical fits to the IPD data. In contrast, switching to PCV13 in 2010 and switching to PCV20 in 2026 are both associated with a high willingness to pay for a single dose. Given pneumococcal disease has shifted over time to become predominantly in the older adult population, we find that switching from PPV23 to PCV20 vaccination in those aged 65 and introducing an additional PCV20 vaccine at age 75 are both cost effective for a sufficiently low vaccine price.$

📄 New preprint: A model-based evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of paediatric & elderly vaccination against pneumococcal infection in England #IDSky #EpiSky 🧪

✍️ Authors: @mattkeeling.bsky.social | Omar El Deeb | Phuong Bich Tran | Stavros Petrou | @edmhill.bsky.social

🔗: doi.org/10.64898/202...

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1 week ago

There haven't been new reports of #H5N1 infected dairy herds in the US for several months, but I keep an eye on the #USDA page where they're posted. Sometime in the past few weeks 4 more herds were added to Idaho's total. Infections were last April-May. publicdashboards.dl.usda.gov/t/MRP_PUB/vi...

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