@edmhill.bsky.social
Researcher in mathematical epidemiology & infectious disease modelling. Affiliations: Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) @livunichil.bsky.social, @thepandemicinst.bsky.social, @livuni-phps.bsky.social, @livuni-iph.bsky.social, @liverpooluni.bsky.social.
📄 Press release from Defra & APHA: New avian influenza vaccine trials begin in UK.
🦃 Targeted trial in turkeys in England to test vaccine efficacy, how surveillance can be managed to retain trade & how vaccines can help manage disease.
⏰ Trials will last for 24 weeks
🔗: www.gov.uk/government/n...
TPI's strategic post Dr Tessa Prince recently joined a UK–South Africa workshop exploring how a One Health approach can help prevent future pandemics by improving surveillance of viruses in wildlife. Read more here: www.thepandemicinstitute.org/news/from-li...
05.03.2026 13:28 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Six years since the inception of Digital Contact Tracing!
We've shown that privacy-preserving DCT could play a key, low-cost role in mitigating future outbreaks whilst simultaneously gathering valuable epi insights in real time.
michellekendall.github.io/2026/03/05/d...
New OFFLU statement: "Global overview of the spread and impact of H5 clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI virus in wildlife, 2020-2024." This variant of avian influenza virus has shown unprecedented geographic expansion in wildlife in recent years. @fao.org @woahglobal.bsky.social 1/3
offlu.org/publications...
We are published! We quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two major waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA is online now!
By mapping the infections we were able to quantify the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the contiguous US and we also estimated the speed of spread! tinyurl.com/y87tjnmd
Three years ago we set out to visualize and quantitatively examine the movement of SARS-CoV-2 leading up to the first two major COVID-19 waves in the US. Today all that hard work "hit the shelves" at PLOSCompBio. 🛟 Watch the spread (we have movies) and read more here: dx.plos.org/10.1371/jour...
04.03.2026 21:58 — 👍 8 🔁 6 💬 2 📌 1
4/ Impact for UK
🇬🇧 Risk of incursion of strains from Netherlands capable of infecting cattle considered very low (very rare but cannot be excluded).
⚠️ Associated uncertainty due to lack of sequence data on Netherlands strain. No comparison possible to strains circulating in wild birds in UK.
/end
3/ Situation assessment
↔️ Not clear if the cows with antibodies represent limited cow-to-cow transmission or several individual exposures from a contaminated source (e.g. infected cat on site or ongoing detections of HPAI in wild birds in the area).
👤 No reports of human infection on the farm.
2/ Situation assessment
🇳🇱 First report of HPAI antibodies in dairy cattle was reported by the Netherlands Authorities on 23 Jan 2026.
5️⃣ cows had antibodies against HPAI H5N1.
🐄 No current evidence of wider circulation of HPAI in cattle or mammalian-adapted strains circulating in the Netherlands.
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Preliminary outbreak assessment High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) antibodies in dairy cattle in the Netherlands 13 February 2026 Disease report summary. The first report of HPAI antibodies in dairy cattle was reported by the Netherlands Authorities on 23 January 2026. Antibodies to HPAI H5N1 were found in a single cow, initially, which had experienced mastitis and breathing difficulties back in December. Sampling on the farm began after a sick cat from the farm tested positive for H5N1 and subsequently died in late December. Additional testing on the farm identified four other cows that had antibodies against HPAI H5N1. There was no evidence of active infection. Viral RNA could not be detected from any of the blood or milk samples from cows on the farm, meaning sequencing of the strain present in the cattle was not possible. There were no reports of human infection on the farm. There is no evidence of wider circulation of HPAI in cattle in the Netherlands or mammalian-adapted strains circulating in wild birds or poultry in the country. The risk of incursion of strains from the Netherlands capable of infecting cattle is therefore considered very low (very rare but cannot be excluded), with an associated uncertainty due to the lack of sequence data on the Netherlands strain, and hence no comparison possible to those strains still circulating in wild birds in the UK.
1/ 📄 Preliminary outbreak assessment: High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) antibodies in dairy cattle in the Netherlands. #OneHealth #IDsky 🧪
✍ Report dated 13 Feb 2026 by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a578...
📰 UK HPAI H5N1 reported cases: 03 Mar 2026 #IDsky #OneHealth🧪
🐔 Commercial premises near Pickering, Yorkshire.
📊 95 confirmed HPAI H5N1 cases in poultry & other captive birds from 01 Oct 2025
🏴 England: 75
🏴 Scotland: 9
🏴 Wales: 7
🇬🇧 Northern Ireland: 4
🔗: www.gov.uk/government/n...
Abstract Infection with pnuemococcus bacteria is generally mild but can be more severe in the young and elderly, causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Although paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programmes and elderly pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) programmes have reduced cases, we estimate that pneumococcal infection still leads to direct health care costs of around \pounds68M and approximately 16 thousand QALY losses in England per year. The public health situation is complicated by the large number of interacting serotypes, such that while serotype-specific vaccines reduced the target serotypes others arose to replace them. We develop a novel (relatively) low-dimensional model to capture the interaction of 26 common pneumococcal serotypes. The model is matched to English IPD data from 2000-2023 and to five carriage studies (conducted in 2001/02, 2008, 2012, 2015 and 2018). When combined with a health economic approach, this model allows us to calculate the willingness to pay for paediatric vaccination with PCV7 (introduced in England in 2006), PCV13 (introduced in England in 2010) and the future vaccination of both the young and elderly with PCV20, which offers protection against 20 serotypes. Due to rapid serotype replacement, we find that the introduction of PCV7 vaccination in 2006 was not cost effective - a result that could not have been anticipated at the time, but is supported by simple statistical fits to the IPD data. In contrast, switching to PCV13 in 2010 and switching to PCV20 in 2026 are both associated with a high willingness to pay for a single dose. Given pneumococcal disease has shifted over time to become predominantly in the older adult population, we find that switching from PPV23 to PCV20 vaccination in those aged 65 and introducing an additional PCV20 vaccine at age 75 are both cost effective for a sufficiently low vaccine price.
📄 New preprint: A model-based evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of paediatric & elderly vaccination against pneumococcal infection in England #IDSky #EpiSky 🧪
✍️ Authors: @mattkeeling.bsky.social | Omar El Deeb | Phuong Bich Tran | Stavros Petrou | @edmhill.bsky.social
🔗: doi.org/10.64898/202...
There haven't been new reports of #H5N1 infected dairy herds in the US for several months, but I keep an eye on the #USDA page where they're posted. Sometime in the past few weeks 4 more herds were added to Idaho's total. Infections were last April-May. publicdashboards.dl.usda.gov/t/MRP_PUB/vi...
02.03.2026 19:41 — 👍 72 🔁 16 💬 1 📌 0
🧪 Recommendations for influenza vaccine composition for the 2026-2027 northern hemisphere season
📣 Announced on 27 Feb 2026 by @who.int
🔗: www.who.int/news/item/27...
1. A #measles & #flu update, starting with measles.
The confirmed case count for this year has topped 1,000 already. It now stands at 1,136.
For some context: In the first 2 months of 2026 the US has recorded half as many measles cases as were confirmed in all of 2025, which was a very bad year.
1. More #flu news today: Spain has reported a case of #swineflu, (H1N1v), in an 83 yo person who had no contact with pigs. No clear connection between the person & pigs suggests this might be person-to-person spread. Spain is investigating but says it believes the risk to be "very low."
27.02.2026 19:04 — 👍 73 🔁 24 💬 1 📌 6
3/ Health Data Decoded
🎙️ Civic Health Innovation Labs (@livunichil.bsky.social) podcast discussing how we can use civic data to improve public health.
🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1kbSyvI...
📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@HealthDataD...
🗓️ Next episode scheduled release date: 27 Mar 2026!
/end
2/ Programme & project management
🗣️ We discuss with Claire & Emma their role delivering operational strategy, governance & financial management across CHIL programmes.
🔗 Claire’s LinkedIn profile: www.linkedin.com/in/claire-sm...
🔗 Emma’s LinkedIn profile: www.linkedin.com/in/emma-lo-6...
1/ 🎙️ New 'Health Data Decoded' episode! #SciComm
❓ What does it take to manage research programmes & partnerships?
👤 With Claire Smith (Head of Research Programmes) & Emma Lo (Programme Manager), Civic Health Innovation Labs.
📹: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PLv...
🎧: open.spotify.com/episode/29kv...
Attending the @gs-idd.bsky.social launch seminar. Couldn't be more excited to see this effort take shape and can't wait to see how it helps push the infectious disease dynamics community forward! Thank you to all of the founding members and organizers 🙏
26.02.2026 16:29 — 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
New version of our preprint on bioRxiv about bioRxiv up. Now that’s what I call a revision – 6 years after the first version!
It has new data about our progress and highlights from a massive user survey. 1/n
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
Introducing CAPphrase (Comparative and Absolute Probability phrase dataset), an open access dataset containing over 150,000 probability-based language judgements: adamkucharski.github.io/CAPphrase/
26.02.2026 10:45 — 👍 40 🔁 14 💬 1 📌 3
👏 Looking forward to continued development of the Global Society of Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) & its community following the launch event! #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪
👥 Stated during first webinar there were over 100+ attending. Impressive for initial event!
📧 550 signed up for mailing list👇
HPAI key figures for the current seasonal wave (Oct 2025 - Sep 2026) and the two previous waves (Oct 2023 - Sep 2024; Oct 2024 - Sep 2025). 01 Oct 2023 – 30 Sep 2024. Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 39 No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 851 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 55 No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 1076 01 Oct 2024 – 30 Sep 2025 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 50 No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 1410 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 55 No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 1918 01 Oct 2025 – 31 Jan 2026 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 32 No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 928 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 41 No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 4239
During January 2026, 108 new outbreaks in poultry were notified by 18 countries and territories (Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chinese Taipei, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Nigeria, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom, United States of America).
Number of new outbreaks, associated cases and losses by geographical region (losses include animals dead and killed and disposed of within outbreaks – they do not include culling around outbreaks). It should also be noted that some countries or territories are unable to provide a precise number of cases and leave this field blank in the report. New Outbreak statistics. Africa: 2. Americas: 14; Asia: 9; Europe 83. Cases statistics. Africa: 3,097; Americas: 83; Asia: 15,701; Europe: 3,821,126. Losses statistics. Africa: 3,097; Americas: 756,210; Asia: 400,613; Europe: 4,181,455.
During January 2026, 180 new outbreaks in non-poultry were notified by 24 countries and territories (Austria, Bangladesh , Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Heard and McDonald Islands , Hungary, Israel, Italy, Lithuania, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America). The number of HPAI new outbreaks in non-poultry animals reported through WAHIS by geographical region during January 2026: Americas: 8 (all in in non-poultry birds). Asia: 1 (all in in non-poultry birds). Europe: 169 (all in non-poultry birds).
🦆 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza – WOAH Sit Rep 79 #OneHealth 🧪
🗓️ Covers Jan 2026
📊 Outbreaks in Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe & Oceania: 108 in poultry; 178 in non-poultry birds & mammals.
▶️ Reported 5,341,375 poultry birds died or culled, mostly in Europe.
🔗: www.woah.org/app/uploads/...
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has been confirmed for the first time in northern elephant seals in California, prompting increased monitoring and temporary closure of viewing areas at Año Nuevo State Park.
25.02.2026 14:40 — 👍 14 🔁 11 💬 0 📌 0
Bayesian joint modelling using @mc-stan.org of wastewater and hospital admissions in the US led by @kaitejohnson9.bsky.social and others at the US CDC
25.02.2026 15:23 — 👍 13 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 1
I'm excited to be co-hosting the launch with @bansallab.bsky.social!
And please note for some people around the world, one or both of these sessions will be on Friday 27th (your local time - so please check the website and use the calendar invites on that page).
Launch of the Global Society of Infectious Disease Dynamics. 🎉
2 online webinars on Thursday 26th.
Do join to see what it's all about, and get involved in the community as it kicks off!
www.gsidd.org/post/join-us...
New preprint from our Gates-funded Modjadji initiative showing that whole-genome surveillance of measles virus from wastewater greatly expands our ability for monitoring and control.
Here, with our colleagues in South Africa - U.S., unfortunately, likely up next.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
