Ed Hill

Abstract Infection with pnuemococcus bacteria is generally mild but can be more severe in the young and elderly, causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Although paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programmes and elderly pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) programmes have reduced cases, we estimate that pneumococcal infection still leads to direct health care costs of around \pounds68M and approximately 16 thousand QALY losses in England per year. The public health situation is complicated by the large number of interacting serotypes, such that while serotype-specific vaccines reduced the target serotypes others arose to replace them. We develop a novel (relatively) low-dimensional model to capture the interaction of 26 common pneumococcal serotypes. The model is matched to English IPD data from 2000-2023 and to five carriage studies (conducted in 2001/02, 2008, 2012, 2015 and 2018). When combined with a health economic approach, this model allows us to calculate the willingness to pay for paediatric vaccination with PCV7 (introduced in England in 2006), PCV13 (introduced in England in 2010) and the future vaccination of both the young and elderly with PCV20, which offers protection against 20 serotypes. Due to rapid serotype replacement, we find that the introduction of PCV7 vaccination in 2006 was not cost effective - a result that could not have been anticipated at the time, but is supported by simple statistical fits to the IPD data. In contrast, switching to PCV13 in 2010 and switching to PCV20 in 2026 are both associated with a high willingness to pay for a single dose. Given pneumococcal disease has shifted over time to become predominantly in the older adult population, we find that switching from PPV23 to PCV20 vaccination in those aged 65 and introducing an additional PCV20 vaccine at age 75 are both cost effective for a sufficiently low vaccine price.

📄 New preprint: A model-based evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of paediatric & elderly vaccination against pneumococcal infection in England #IDSky #EpiSky 🧪

✍️ Authors: @mattkeeling.bsky.social | Omar El Deeb | Phuong Bich Tran | Stavros Petrou | @edmhill.bsky.social

🔗: doi.org/10.64898/202...

There haven't been new reports of #H5N1 infected dairy herds in the US for several months, but I keep an eye on the #USDA page where they're posted. Sometime in the past few weeks 4 more herds were added to Idaho's total. Infections were last April-May. publicdashboards.dl.usda.gov/t/MRP_PUB/vi...

Recommendations for influenza vaccine composition for the 2026-2027 northern hemisphere season The World Health Organization (WHO) today announced recommendations for the viral composition of influenza (or “flu”) vaccines for the 2026-2027 northern hemisphere influenza season. The announcement ...

🧪 Recommendations for influenza vaccine composition for the 2026-2027 northern hemisphere season

📣 Announced on 27 Feb 2026 by @who.int

🔗: www.who.int/news/item/27...

1. A #measles & #flu update, starting with measles.
The confirmed case count for this year has topped 1,000 already. It now stands at 1,136.
For some context: In the first 2 months of 2026 the US has recorded half as many measles cases as were confirmed in all of 2025, which was a very bad year.

1. More #flu news today: Spain has reported a case of #swineflu, (H1N1v), in an 83 yo person who had no contact with pigs. No clear connection between the person & pigs suggests this might be person-to-person spread. Spain is investigating but says it believes the risk to be "very low."

Health Data Decoded Welcome to Health Data Decoded! A podcast series from the Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL), based at the University of Liverpool. CHIL is an interdisciplinary research centre tackling global hea...

3/ Health Data Decoded

🎙️ Civic Health Innovation Labs (@livunichil.bsky.social) podcast discussing how we can use civic data to improve public health.

🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1kbSyvI...

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@HealthDataD...

🗓️ Next episode scheduled release date: 27 Mar 2026!

/end

2/ Programme & project management

🗣️ We discuss with Claire & Emma their role delivering operational strategy, governance & financial management across CHIL programmes.

🔗 Claire’s LinkedIn profile: www.linkedin.com/in/claire-sm...

🔗 Emma’s LinkedIn profile: www.linkedin.com/in/emma-lo-6...

1/ 🎙️ New 'Health Data Decoded' episode! #SciComm

❓ What does it take to manage research programmes & partnerships?

👤 With Claire Smith (Head of Research Programmes) & Emma Lo (Programme Manager), Civic Health Innovation Labs.

📹: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PLv...

🎧: open.spotify.com/episode/29kv...

Attending the @gs-idd.bsky.social launch seminar. Couldn't be more excited to see this effort take shape and can't wait to see how it helps push the infectious disease dynamics community forward! Thank you to all of the founding members and organizers 🙏

New version of our preprint on bioRxiv about bioRxiv up. Now that’s what I call a revision – 6 years after the first version!
It has new data about our progress and highlights from a massive user survey. 1/n
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...

Introducing CAPphrase (Comparative and Absolute Probability phrase dataset), an open access dataset containing over 150,000 probability-based language judgements: adamkucharski.github.io/CAPphrase/

👏 Looking forward to continued development of the Global Society of Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) & its community following the launch event! #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪

👥 Stated during first webinar there were over 100+ attending. Impressive for initial event!

📧 550 signed up for mailing list👇

HPAI key figures for the current seasonal wave (Oct 2025 - Sep 2026) and the two previous waves (Oct 2023 - Sep 2024; Oct 2024 - Sep 2025). 01 Oct 2023 – 30 Sep 2024. Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 39 No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 851 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 55 No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 1076 01 Oct 2024 – 30 Sep 2025 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 50 No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 1410 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 55 No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 1918 01 Oct 2025 – 31 Jan 2026 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 32 No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 928 Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 41 No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 4239

During January 2026, 108 new outbreaks in poultry were notified by 18 countries and territories (Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chinese Taipei, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Nigeria, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom, United States of America).

Number of new outbreaks, associated cases and losses by geographical region (losses include animals dead and killed and disposed of within outbreaks – they do not include culling around outbreaks). It should also be noted that some countries or territories are unable to provide a precise number of cases and leave this field blank in the report. New Outbreak statistics. Africa: 2. Americas: 14; Asia: 9; Europe 83. Cases statistics. Africa: 3,097; Americas: 83; Asia: 15,701; Europe: 3,821,126. Losses statistics. Africa: 3,097; Americas: 756,210; Asia: 400,613; Europe: 4,181,455.

During January 2026, 180 new outbreaks in non-poultry were notified by 24 countries and territories (Austria, Bangladesh , Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Heard and McDonald Islands , Hungary, Israel, Italy, Lithuania, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America). The number of HPAI new outbreaks in non-poultry animals reported through WAHIS by geographical region during January 2026: Americas: 8 (all in in non-poultry birds). Asia: 1 (all in in non-poultry birds). Europe: 169 (all in non-poultry birds).

🦆 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza – WOAH Sit Rep 79 #OneHealth 🧪

🗓️ Covers Jan 2026

📊 Outbreaks in Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe & Oceania: 108 in poultry; 178 in non-poultry birds & mammals.

▶️ Reported 5,341,375 poultry birds died or culled, mostly in Europe.

🔗: www.woah.org/app/uploads/...

First cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in northern elephant seals confirmed in California Seven weaned elephant seal pups in California's Año Nuevo State Park tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Veterinary Services Laboratory confirmed Tuesday evening.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has been confirmed for the first time in northern elephant seals in California, prompting increased monitoring and temporary closure of viewing areas at Año Nuevo State Park.

Bayesian joint modelling using @mc-stan.org of wastewater and hospital admissions in the US led by @kaitejohnson9.bsky.social and others at the US CDC

Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) | infectious disease dynamics GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners, and educators in infectious disease dynamics.

I'm excited to be co-hosting the launch with @bansallab.bsky.social!

And please note for some people around the world, one or both of these sessions will be on Friday 27th (your local time - so please check the website and use the calendar invites on that page).

Join us for the launch event! We are excited to invite you to the official launch of the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) on February 26th, 2026.This launch marks an important milestone for our global communi...

Launch of the Global Society of Infectious Disease Dynamics. 🎉

2 online webinars on Thursday 26th.
Do join to see what it's all about, and get involved in the community as it kicks off!

www.gsidd.org/post/join-us...

Integrating measles wastewater and clinical whole-genome sequencing enables high-resolution tracking of virus evolution and transmission Measles outbreaks have surged globally in recent years, but current surveillance systems have limited capacity to monitor measles virus (MeV) transmission and evolution at population scale. Although M...

New preprint from our Gates-funded Modjadji initiative showing that whole-genome surveillance of measles virus from wastewater greatly expands our ability for monitoring and control.

Here, with our colleagues in South Africa - U.S., unfortunately, likely up next.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...

Screening, sorting, and the feedback cycles that imperil peer review The process of peer review is vital to contemporary science, but is also under enormous strain. This study uses mathematical models to dissect the threats to the long-term viability of peer review, su...

1. Kevin Gross and I have a new paper out today PLOS Biology.

We used economic models based around screening games and the market for unpaid labor to highlight a meltdown cycle threatening peer review.

Welcome to UCL Two centuries ago, our founders had a vision: to open higher education to all. Today, we are a world top-ten university in the heart of London, with a thriving community from over 150 countries.

Closing March 1- apply for a Research Fellow position in modelling infectious diseases to reduce inequities in health outcomes in Africa! Join a multidisciplinary 4 year project with me at UCL and partners in Zimbabwe, Zambia, The Gambia, South Africa, Kenya and the UK. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

Pink graphic with black and white text which reads, 'More Research, Less Cancer philanthropic campaign passes halfway point'

Science is moving faster than ever, and philanthropic support is helping us rise to the challenge. 

We’re breaking down the amazing successes of our More Research, Less Cancer campaign so far – and refocusing on our goals for the next two years. Read more: cruk.ink/3MEFGpq

OpenSAFELY news: you can apply to do non-COVID research, from today! | Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science We are delighted to announce that - from today - you can submit applications to the OpenSAFELY service for non-COVID-19 studies.

OpenSAFELY is open from today! Huge thanks to all who supported this vast collaboration: whole population GP data; in a productive platform; innovative privacy protections; unprecedented support from professions, privacy campaigners; &c

Now it's over to users!

www.bennett.ox.ac.uk/blog/2026/02...

A screenshot of a FB memories post from 6 years ago today, 23 Feb 2020. Emma Hodcroft posts: "So yea. This is it. This is the post. SARS-CoV-2 is extremely likely to become (if not already) pandemic. What's most important right now is getting a handle on how quickly it is spreading and where. This means increasing testing and trying to slow the spread to buy time."

Every year I get to 're-live' the pandemic thanks to FB memories. Re-examining my posts with increasing time is always interesting.

This one though - this one never fails to send a shiver down my spine. When do make a post like this? When are you sure enough? What if you regret it?

Mapping the specificity of H3N2 strain-specific and cross-reactive human neutralizing antibodies elicited by the 2025-2026 influenza vaccine An H3N2 variant, named subclade K, continues to circulate widely during the 2025-2026 influenza season. This virus possesses a hemagglutinin (HA) protein that has eleven substitutions relative to the ...

Our preprint examining the specificity of human antibodies that cross-react with subclade K H3N2 viruses was posted this morning on medRxiv. These studies have implications on what vaccine strains should be selected for next year’s influenza season. 1/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...

In the end, 2/6 of the scorelines fell within the models' 50% prediction interval, so no strong evidence that the models are over or under confident for this specific task (although admittedly a small sample size).

AI predictions for Six Nations this weekend. Despite a long reasoning explanation, they mostly just follow the expected difference in the betting market. Gemini slightly more confident than others though.

GPT-5.2 particularly bold in picking non-integer score differences as most likely outcome…

We have posted data providing real-time measurement of human neutralizing antibody landscape to seasonal influenza.

Data explain spread of subclades K (H3N2) & D.3.1.1 (H1N1), identify subclade K subvariants w reduced neutralization, & can inform choice of strains for next vaccine.

1. A #flu & #measles update.
#CDC has been informed of 5 more kids who've died from flu this year, bringing the pediatric death total so far to 71. About 90% of them weren't vaccinated.
Flu season isn't over & flu B — which is tough on kids — is surging. The death toll, sadly, will continue to rise.

A little-known flu virus is sickening cattle around the world. Are humans next? Features of recently identified influenza D point to possible pandemic threat

Ever heard of flu D? Hardly anyone else has either. But it deserves your attention. www.science.org/content/arti...

PSA for Overleaf users: Overleaf has a single "Disable AI features" button if you go to your account settings.