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@d-spike.bsky.social

333 Followers  |  196 Following  |  110 Posts  |  Joined: 24.10.2023  |  1.7311

Latest posts by d-spike.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Massive crowding in these names and likely to be some margin compression ("we will be watching you"), did you expect this to just keep going up forever?

16.07.2025 16:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

That's a nice view, but does it beat the view of a screen showing the NWG chart?

20.05.2025 10:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

what happened to YCC?

20.05.2025 10:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

btw lime and limestone goes into every industrial process and construction activity you can think of

13.03.2025 12:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Some people were pounding the table. By some people I mean you, and me.

13.03.2025 11:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

its weird seeing you here

13.03.2025 11:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Not strictly German (30% exposure), Sigmaroc is the one if you're an aggregates appreciatooor. High FCF yield, trough in european construction cycle, killer ceo, screens cheaper than anything comparable on valuation.

13.03.2025 11:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What's the argument to say E won't fall further and multiple wont fall back to say 18x forward to reflect the new reality?

11.03.2025 15:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It'll be ok, haven't you heard? Manufacturing is coming back to America. Cars, widgets you name it - the factory line will be waiting for all those high value service and tech jobs.

10.03.2025 15:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

yep, agreed

12.02.2025 15:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

what was the difference in cap weighted earnings growth versus equal weight as they were diverging up to that point? probably not like what is has been in the past ten years. concentration is a bit of a red herring too as @samro.bsky.social points out - each mag is actually several companies

12.02.2025 15:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

thats a pretty crappy rote these days. the discount to bv probably not too far off given that, and the fact that it's accident prone...

06.02.2025 14:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

-15% later and today's results don't inspire

29.01.2025 16:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What about bid-ask spreads, are they within the norm?

10.01.2025 10:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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fwiw. if this is correct, like isnt the original mandate of the BoE to ensure functioning gilts market.... also like they know long term rates are under their control if they so choose right?

10.01.2025 10:45 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Is it ordely though? I've seen something on liquidity in gilts having become an issue again but source was a bit questionable so not sure.

10.01.2025 10:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Not seeing much discussion about the tension here between government and central bank. What's the justification for continuing QT at this juncture, for example? BoE's general attitude is quite cavalier with regards to the market just having its way with long term interest rates causing a doom loop.

10.01.2025 10:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

not sure what high rates are supposed to achieve at this point besides continuing to kill residential construction and making rental inflation worse

09.01.2025 22:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

the way out is reclaim control over interest rates, restart QE and lower rates

09.01.2025 22:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

they don't need to intervene, open mouth operation will stop the rot

08.01.2025 20:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

yeah the problem is they're also discarded when they aren't the result of bad faith processes and simply labelled as bad faith, moreover, it's not a court of law.

08.01.2025 10:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What's not great is people (particularly fed members) thinking that speculative stuff matters more than the real economy.

23.12.2024 16:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

ah well never mind about that, fed's got to be hawkish because of some speculation in risk assets right?

18.12.2024 21:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Novo (via Novo Holdings) looking to buy up specialty services to biopharma

18.12.2024 10:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

'I'm pretending to be dumb while actually being smarter than everyone' routine was amusing the first 500 times. Now it's just lazy contrarianism in a party hat.
@robinwigglesworth.bsky.social will you be issuing another I'm sorry your number went up piece if US equities continue their run?

12.12.2024 09:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Is everything ok at the FT? You've been fighting the US equity bull market since 2009. I recall reading AV avidly in the years following the GFC, you'd often link to stuff in zerohedge that sounded very profound and scary. Yesterday we get Hussman of all people being given a platform in the paper...

12.12.2024 09:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is really not the dunk you think it is. He said like football stars, not like the average premier league player of which there are 5 times as many as ftse 100 companies.

12.12.2024 09:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

what's dumb is thinking one of these variables has anything to do with the other in the first place

11.12.2024 21:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

what about the supply shocks caused by their own actions, like in housing?

10.12.2024 17:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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this'll make you feel better

06.12.2024 11:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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