@d-spike.bsky.social

347 Followers 196 Following 110 Posts Joined Oct 2023
7 months ago
Post image

Massive crowding in these names and likely to be some margin compression ("we will be watching you"), did you expect this to just keep going up forever?

2 0 0 0
9 months ago

That's a nice view, but does it beat the view of a screen showing the NWG chart?

2 0 0 0
9 months ago

what happened to YCC?

0 0 0 0
1 year ago

btw lime and limestone goes into every industrial process and construction activity you can think of

1 0 0 0
1 year ago

Some people were pounding the table. By some people I mean you, and me.

1 0 0 0
1 year ago

its weird seeing you here

0 0 1 0
1 year ago

Not strictly German (30% exposure), Sigmaroc is the one if you're an aggregates appreciatooor. High FCF yield, trough in european construction cycle, killer ceo, screens cheaper than anything comparable on valuation.

1 0 1 0
1 year ago

What's the argument to say E won't fall further and multiple wont fall back to say 18x forward to reflect the new reality?

3 0 0 0
1 year ago

It'll be ok, haven't you heard? Manufacturing is coming back to America. Cars, widgets you name it - the factory line will be waiting for all those high value service and tech jobs.

1 0 0 0
1 year ago

yep, agreed

0 0 0 0
1 year ago

what was the difference in cap weighted earnings growth versus equal weight as they were diverging up to that point? probably not like what is has been in the past ten years. concentration is a bit of a red herring too as @samro.bsky.social points out - each mag is actually several companies

0 0 1 0
1 year ago

thats a pretty crappy rote these days. the discount to bv probably not too far off given that, and the fact that it's accident prone...

0 0 1 0
1 year ago

-15% later and today's results don't inspire

1 0 0 0
1 year ago

What about bid-ask spreads, are they within the norm?

0 0 1 0
1 year ago
Post image

fwiw. if this is correct, like isnt the original mandate of the BoE to ensure functioning gilts market.... also like they know long term rates are under their control if they so choose right?

0 0 1 0
1 year ago

Is it ordely though? I've seen something on liquidity in gilts having become an issue again but source was a bit questionable so not sure.

0 0 1 0
1 year ago

Not seeing much discussion about the tension here between government and central bank. What's the justification for continuing QT at this juncture, for example? BoE's general attitude is quite cavalier with regards to the market just having its way with long term interest rates causing a doom loop.

1 0 0 0
1 year ago

not sure what high rates are supposed to achieve at this point besides continuing to kill residential construction and making rental inflation worse

3 0 0 0
1 year ago

the way out is reclaim control over interest rates, restart QE and lower rates

2 0 1 0
1 year ago

they don't need to intervene, open mouth operation will stop the rot

1 0 0 0
1 year ago

yeah the problem is they're also discarded when they aren't the result of bad faith processes and simply labelled as bad faith, moreover, it's not a court of law.

1 0 1 0
1 year ago

What's not great is people (particularly fed members) thinking that speculative stuff matters more than the real economy.

4 0 1 0
1 year ago

ah well never mind about that, fed's got to be hawkish because of some speculation in risk assets right?

2 0 0 0
1 year ago

Novo (via Novo Holdings) looking to buy up specialty services to biopharma

0 0 0 0
1 year ago

'I'm pretending to be dumb while actually being smarter than everyone' routine was amusing the first 500 times. Now it's just lazy contrarianism in a party hat.
@robinwigglesworth.bsky.social will you be issuing another I'm sorry your number went up piece if US equities continue their run?

0 0 1 0
1 year ago

Is everything ok at the FT? You've been fighting the US equity bull market since 2009. I recall reading AV avidly in the years following the GFC, you'd often link to stuff in zerohedge that sounded very profound and scary. Yesterday we get Hussman of all people being given a platform in the paper...

1 0 1 0
1 year ago

This is really not the dunk you think it is. He said like football stars, not like the average premier league player of which there are 5 times as many as ftse 100 companies.

0 0 0 0
1 year ago

what's dumb is thinking one of these variables has anything to do with the other in the first place

1 0 1 0
1 year ago

what about the supply shocks caused by their own actions, like in housing?

1 0 0 0
1 year ago
Post image

this'll make you feel better

2 0 1 0