parker fleming

if you're not currently signed up for PI, you can do that over at phantomisland.show!

Numbers & Words: How to Talk about Strength of Schedule with Bill Connelly and Parker Fleming (PREVIEW) Podcast Episode · Phantom Island · 10/31/2025 · 6m

Godfrey-less Week continues on Phantom Island (for paid subscribers!): @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social join me to discuss Strength of Schedule as the ultimate GRR THIS TEAM IS COWARDS metric. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...

Big 12 situational offensive efficiency 2025

📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9

🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!

🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS

CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU

see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!

🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS

CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU

see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!

📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9

🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!

🏈📊FRIDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
WEEK 9

NORTH TEXAS @ CHARLOTTE
CAL @ VIRGINIA TECH
BOISE STATE @ NEVADA

all that is saying is this: "We believe there is a stronger signal in Northwestern's market overperformance than we do South Florida's". That doesn't say anything about the relative quality of either team.

furious i didn't think of this

If you're interested in learning more, I discussed it in detail on the live stream you can find on my twitter/x page

General method:

1. Take the pre-game spread
2. Compare it to the actual margin of victory
3. Calculate how likely each result was, assuming spreads predict true team strength
4. Use a chi-squared test to determine: "Could these results plausibly happen by chance, or is there a real pattern?"

weird chart alert: How much do I trust your results?

Testing out a new feature on cfbtransfermarket.com - Quick Valuations. You can select conference, level, side of ball and get fed random players to go research and give valuations to!

Going to go live on the other app (@statsowar) about noon eastern today: Will talk through a couple of graphs I posted yesterday, the Tuesday night matchups, and take any CFB/analytics questions you have, drop them in the replies

Alternative title: LSU, are you ok?

How are offenses doing in creating quality drives and finishing those quality drives?

Quality Drive Rate and Points Per Quality Drive
FBS vs FBS through Week 8

College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 8

🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Bad Offense, Good Defense
🔴⬅️⬇️ We're Trying Our Best!

first half: Duke +0.2 percentage points
second half: GT +0.05 percentage points

just noting for the general public: i've added a "support" button on the site that links to my buymeacoffee. Stat previews will remain free, but while I'm searching for my next gig, if you want to support my work and offset my data/hosting costs, you can contribute there.

WEEK 9 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS

MISSOURI @ VANDERBILT
ILLINOIS @ WASHINGTON
OLE MISS @ OKLAHOMA
SOUTH FLORIDA @ MEMPHIS

100% the inspiration

Live now - a simple voting system where we can try to guess who will transfer and who will declare for the draft. Enjoy.

part of the very rough smoothing process, every player has placeholder valuations that will phase out. working on transfer feature rn, stay tuned.

worth it

Introducing CFB Transfer Market

Let's crowdsource player value and get an estimate of what college football players are worth:
cfbtransfermarket.com

✅ Submit valuations for any player
✅ See real-time consensus estimates
✅ View valuations by team and in the aggregate

those are national ranks in POWER RATING