Aaron Strauss

In countries where students spent a lot of time using devices for leisure during the school day, test scores plummeted between 2012 and 2022. In countries where they spent less time, test scores merely slid. Thus there was a significantly larger decline in scores in the countries where students spent more time using devices for fun during school hours (see Figure 1). 505 500 495 performance mean 490 485 480 475 470 465 460 455 d • Science, less device use • Math, less device use Reading, less device use Science, more device use Reading, more device use Math, more device use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Figure 1: Scores on standardized tests of math, reading, and science for 15- and 16-year-olds in 36 countries, by low or high use of electronic devices for leisure during the school day. Note: Controlled for GDP per capita. Source: Twenge (2025) using data from PISA.

The global decline in test scores since ~2012 is highly correlated with smartphone penetration

www.generationtechblog.com/p/phones-at-...

Today’s military strikes on Iran — carried out by the United States and Israel — mark a catastrophic escalation in an illegal war of aggression. Bombing cities. Killing civilians. Opening a new theater of war.

Happy Birthday, Dean Smith

Facts

NEW. This is an elementary girls school in the city of Hormozgan in Iran.

In the last hour, it was hit by a US/Israeli missile attack.

So far, 24 young girls are confirmed dead [SOURCE: Al Jazeera].

The US has just committed a war crime.

(🎥 Ary Jeay)

Good morning. The US & Israel attacked Iran overnight. Israel says “dozens” of targets. The President did a video announcement encouraging Iranians to revolt and announcing the targeting of missile capabilities + navy. Response from Iran directed at Israel + US assets in Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE.

I think this result is just endogenous to candidates. Using the ANES panel instead of pooling, a basic vote choice model shows anti-system folks in 2016 were not more likely to support Trump over Harris in 2024. But if you use contemporaneous values in 2024 and 2016 you get associations.

Dr. Catharine Young: We are now at 1136 new measles cases - in just the first 8 weeks of this year alone. A preventable disease resurging. This is an abject policy failure.

No, it's proving that he can moderate on issues. He's showing how you can be a fighter and moderate at the same time!

Put another way: diff strats for diff issues: Fight against Trump, fight on economic issues, moderate on social issues -- that'll lead to many victories!

Police, schools, homeless population

Gallego! (Also MGP)
bsky.app/profile/aaro...

Absolutely. His strategy is 100% fine in safe seats, and the tent is plenty big for safe seat Dems, blue dog Dems, DSA members etc. Dems are good!

But I'm trying to win tough races, so I need to follow the evidence on how to win votes in tough races.

Yeah, I agree with Matt's SB, not that tweet

I don't have time to do all of them, so just the 1st: Swalwell 2024. He's the incumbent, has a massive $$ advantage and yet still wins by exact same margin--35.4%--as Harris (who had the inflation albatross)

The crux: If Swalwell can't win more votes against a nobody, why valorize his strategy?

1) Maybe President Whitmer runs ICE like Obama and Biden did?

2) Assuming Trump still wins, popularists are huge fans of non-violent protests (one was fired for advocating loudly for such!) so... the same thing that happened in our timeline?

Yeah, voters think we're weak -- hence all my positive examples of strength.

Who in our caucus do you think others should emulate, out of curiosity? I want to understand your argument better.

Don't be rude -- tag him! @mattyglesias.bsky.social -- I searched, and all I can find is Yglesias telling politicians to take clear stances on issues.

So maybe it was your imagination? But maybe Matt can help.

Somehow, in the minds of leftists, popularism's "Take clear stances on the popular sides of issues to win more votes" became "squishy centrism".

No one is arguing that Sinema has the answers!

Go yell at Ruben Gallego, dude.

"Look, ma, a strong moderate!"

Sick and tired of false choices on this site. The over-performers, like Sen Gallego, show us the way.

www.semafor.com/article/02/2...

Yeah, I've never run for office. That's why I cited over-performers -- the experts. They show how to be a strong moderate. If you have issue with how they win more votes than baseline partisanship, take it up with them!

For that matter, Mamdani has moderated on a ton of issues: police, schools, most recently homeless encampments? Does that make him weak? Not in my book -- he still has Trump wrapped around his finger after all!

When the June 2024 debate proved that Biden--after an incredibly impressive career--was no longer able to lead our party, who was strong enough to speak the plain truth to Americans? Many moderates!

Some progressives too, but the progressive leaders were riding the "Biden or Bust" train off a cliff

When Rep. Chuy Garcia subverted democracy and denied his own constituents the power to choose their next representative in Congress, who spoke truth the power? Not the Leftists!

What is this disease that has infected our side that moderation and strength are automatically anti-correlated?

Cool data from @gelliottmorris.com that indicates that strong moderate Dems should over-perform the most.

Strong moderate is an oxymoron you say?

Great example of strong Dem moderation comes from Rep. Marie G-P out of a Trump district in WA state.

www.instagram.com/reels/DB7oGl...

Scoop: Energy Department Meeting With Utilities, Developers on Trump’s Nuclear Plans The public-private project aims to help realize the president’s goal of building 10 new reactors by 2030.

NEW:

US ENERGY DEPARTMENT IN TALKS OVER MAJOR NEW NUCLEAR POWER PROJECT

The Energy Department and Westinghouse are meeting with utilities & developers about a new project to buy long lead time parts for 10 new nuclear reactors

If successful, would speed up power plant construction & lower costs

A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Summary of public opinion on Donald Trump's policies." The chart's sub-headline is: "Would you support or oppose the following? Results are among U.S. adult citizens and are averaged within topics." The chart has the note: "Note: Questions were asked on the Economist/YouGov Poll and other YouGov surveys. "Support" includes responses of strongly and somewhat support, and "Oppose" includes responses of strongly and somewhat oppose. Responses of "not sure" are not shown. Net is the % who strongly or somewhat support minus the % who strongly or somewhat oppose."

YouGov policy polling
During Donald Trump's second term, YouGov has polled Americans about 369 policies proposed, endorsed, or implemented by Trump and his administration.
Average net support: -17
today.yougov.com/politics/art...

People say Bluesky doesn't have the juice?!?!!??

Correct tag should have been @owasow.bsky.social on this one!