Aaron Strauss

Aaron Strauss

@aaronstrauss.bsky.social

Following the evidence to elect more Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper

450 Followers 280 Following 618 Posts Joined Jul 2023
4 days ago

Hegseth needs to stand trial after this as a war criminal. Between this attack and the girls' school, there's no ambiguity. He is responsible for mass murder and must be held accountable.

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4 days ago
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Police body cam footage shows DOGE knew Institute of Peace was private property during raid Footage obtained by The Handbasket’s lawsuit shows a hostile takeover on March 17, 2025.

SCOOP — Body camera footage obtained as a result of my lawsuit against the DC Metropolitan PD confirms DOGE and the Trump administration openly admitted they were entering private property when they raided the building on March 17, 2025. That didn't stop MPD from breaking down the doors.

My report:

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4 days ago

[Republican also passed new gerrymanders in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio]

Ruffini: Doesn’t look like anything to me

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4 days ago
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This is not good.

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6 days ago
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No Help and Few Options for Travelers Stranded by Mideast Conflict

One woman who called the State Department helpline looking for help said they told her to "stop ranting and raving" and hung up on her.

Another woman said they asked her how to spell Oman.

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/t...

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5 days ago

PEPFAR, the program to stop hundreds of thousands of children and adults from dying of HIV/AIDS, was $6.5 billion a year.

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6 days ago
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Trump won NC-11 by 10 points in 2024. Yet with equally kinda-competitive primaries, Dems turned out at a clearly higher rate: 76k to 68k.

LFG Jamie Ager to victory in November!

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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1 week ago
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US moving pregnant immigrant girls to Texas to avoid providing abortions, critics say Ex-official calls transfer of unaccompanied girls as young as 13, many pregnant due to rape, a human rights violation

Unaccompanied children as young as 13 who are pregnant, often from rape, are being moved to Texas so the Trump administration can avoid getting them access to abortion, critics say. My latest: www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

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1 week ago
In countries where students spent a lot of time using devices for leisure during the school day, test scores plummeted between 2012 and 2022. In countries where they spent less time, test scores merely slid. Thus there was a significantly larger decline in scores in the countries where students spent more time using devices for fun during school hours (see Figure 1).
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d • Science,
less device use
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Reading, less device
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Science, more device use
Reading, more device use
Math, more device use
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Figure 1: Scores on standardized tests of math, reading, and science for 15- and 16-year-olds in 36 countries, by low or high use of electronic devices for leisure during the school day. Note:
Controlled for GDP per capita. Source: Twenge (2025) using data from PISA.

The global decline in test scores since ~2012 is highly correlated with smartphone penetration

www.generationtechblog.com/p/phones-at-...

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1 week ago

Today’s military strikes on Iran — carried out by the United States and Israel — mark a catastrophic escalation in an illegal war of aggression. Bombing cities. Killing civilians. Opening a new theater of war.

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1 week ago

Happy Birthday, Dean Smith

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1 week ago

Facts

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1 week ago
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NEW. This is an elementary girls school in the city of Hormozgan in Iran.

In the last hour, it was hit by a US/Israeli missile attack.

So far, 24 young girls are confirmed dead [SOURCE: Al Jazeera].

The US has just committed a war crime.

(🎥 Ary Jeay)

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1 week ago

Good morning. The US & Israel attacked Iran overnight. Israel says “dozens” of targets. The President did a video announcement encouraging Iranians to revolt and announcing the targeting of missile capabilities + navy. Response from Iran directed at Israel + US assets in Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE.

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2 weeks ago

I think this result is just endogenous to candidates. Using the ANES panel instead of pooling, a basic vote choice model shows anti-system folks in 2016 were not more likely to support Trump over Harris in 2024. But if you use contemporaneous values in 2024 and 2016 you get associations.

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1 week ago
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Dr. Catharine Young: We are now at 1136 new measles cases - in just the first 8 weeks of this year alone. A preventable disease resurging. This is an abject policy failure.

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1 week ago

No, it's proving that he can moderate on issues. He's showing how you can be a fighter and moderate at the same time!

Put another way: diff strats for diff issues: Fight against Trump, fight on economic issues, moderate on social issues -- that'll lead to many victories!

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1 week ago
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Police, schools, homeless population

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1 week ago

Gallego! (Also MGP)
bsky.app/profile/aaro...

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1 week ago

Absolutely. His strategy is 100% fine in safe seats, and the tent is plenty big for safe seat Dems, blue dog Dems, DSA members etc. Dems are good!

But I'm trying to win tough races, so I need to follow the evidence on how to win votes in tough races.

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1 week ago

Yeah, I agree with Matt's SB, not that tweet

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1 week ago
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I don't have time to do all of them, so just the 1st: Swalwell 2024. He's the incumbent, has a massive $$ advantage and yet still wins by exact same margin--35.4%--as Harris (who had the inflation albatross)

The crux: If Swalwell can't win more votes against a nobody, why valorize his strategy?

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1 week ago

1) Maybe President Whitmer runs ICE like Obama and Biden did?

2) Assuming Trump still wins, popularists are huge fans of non-violent protests (one was fired for advocating loudly for such!) so... the same thing that happened in our timeline?

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1 week ago

Yeah, voters think we're weak -- hence all my positive examples of strength.

Who in our caucus do you think others should emulate, out of curiosity? I want to understand your argument better.

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1 week ago
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Don't be rude -- tag him! @mattyglesias.bsky.social -- I searched, and all I can find is Yglesias telling politicians to take clear stances on issues.

So maybe it was your imagination? But maybe Matt can help.

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1 week ago

Somehow, in the minds of leftists, popularism's "Take clear stances on the popular sides of issues to win more votes" became "squishy centrism".

No one is arguing that Sinema has the answers!

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1 week ago
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Go yell at Ruben Gallego, dude.

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1 week ago
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"Look, ma, a strong moderate!"

Sick and tired of false choices on this site. The over-performers, like Sen Gallego, show us the way.

www.semafor.com/article/02/2...

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1 week ago

Yeah, I've never run for office. That's why I cited over-performers -- the experts. They show how to be a strong moderate. If you have issue with how they win more votes than baseline partisanship, take it up with them!

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