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Aaron Strauss

@aaronstrauss.bsky.social

Following the evidence to elect more Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper

444 Followers  |  273 Following  |  617 Posts  |  Joined: 28.07.2023
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Posts by Aaron Strauss (@aaronstrauss.bsky.social)

Today’s military strikes on Iran β€” carried out by the United States and Israel β€” mark a catastrophic escalation in an illegal war of aggression. Bombing cities. Killing civilians. Opening a new theater of war.

28.02.2026 17:50 β€” πŸ‘ 16136    πŸ” 3407    πŸ’¬ 158    πŸ“Œ 205

Happy Birthday, Dean Smith

28.02.2026 20:45 β€” πŸ‘ 388    πŸ” 64    πŸ’¬ 11    πŸ“Œ 0

Facts

28.02.2026 21:02 β€” πŸ‘ 66    πŸ” 27    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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NEW. This is an elementary girls school in the city of Hormozgan in Iran.

In the last hour, it was hit by a US/Israeli missile attack.

So far, 24 young girls are confirmed dead [SOURCE: Al Jazeera].

The US has just committed a war crime.

(πŸŽ₯ Ary Jeay)

28.02.2026 11:44 β€” πŸ‘ 1564    πŸ” 932    πŸ’¬ 49    πŸ“Œ 162

Good morning. The US & Israel attacked Iran overnight. Israel says β€œdozens” of targets. The President did a video announcement encouraging Iranians to revolt and announcing the targeting of missile capabilities + navy. Response from Iran directed at Israel + US assets in Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE.

28.02.2026 10:56 β€” πŸ‘ 349    πŸ” 56    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 14

I think this result is just endogenous to candidates. Using the ANES panel instead of pooling, a basic vote choice model shows anti-system folks in 2016 were not more likely to support Trump over Harris in 2024. But if you use contemporaneous values in 2024 and 2016 you get associations.

18.02.2026 12:23 β€” πŸ‘ 48    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2
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Dr. Catharine Young: We are now at 1136 new measles cases - in just the first 8 weeks of this year alone. A preventable disease resurging. This is an abject policy failure.

27.02.2026 21:12 β€” πŸ‘ 729    πŸ” 344    πŸ’¬ 29    πŸ“Œ 27

No, it's proving that he can moderate on issues. He's showing how you can be a fighter and moderate at the same time!

Put another way: diff strats for diff issues: Fight against Trump, fight on economic issues, moderate on social issues -- that'll lead to many victories!

27.02.2026 18:43 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Police, schools, homeless population

27.02.2026 18:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Gallego! (Also MGP)
bsky.app/profile/aaro...

27.02.2026 18:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Absolutely. His strategy is 100% fine in safe seats, and the tent is plenty big for safe seat Dems, blue dog Dems, DSA members etc. Dems are good!

But I'm trying to win tough races, so I need to follow the evidence on how to win votes in tough races.

27.02.2026 18:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, I agree with Matt's SB, not that tweet

27.02.2026 18:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I don't have time to do all of them, so just the 1st: Swalwell 2024. He's the incumbent, has a massive $$ advantage and yet still wins by exact same margin--35.4%--as Harris (who had the inflation albatross)

The crux: If Swalwell can't win more votes against a nobody, why valorize his strategy?

27.02.2026 18:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

1) Maybe President Whitmer runs ICE like Obama and Biden did?

2) Assuming Trump still wins, popularists are huge fans of non-violent protests (one was fired for advocating loudly for such!) so... the same thing that happened in our timeline?

27.02.2026 17:03 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, voters think we're weak -- hence all my positive examples of strength.

Who in our caucus do you think others should emulate, out of curiosity? I want to understand your argument better.

27.02.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Don't be rude -- tag him! @mattyglesias.bsky.social -- I searched, and all I can find is Yglesias telling politicians to take clear stances on issues.

So maybe it was your imagination? But maybe Matt can help.

27.02.2026 16:43 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Somehow, in the minds of leftists, popularism's "Take clear stances on the popular sides of issues to win more votes" became "squishy centrism".

No one is arguing that Sinema has the answers!

27.02.2026 16:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Go yell at Ruben Gallego, dude.

27.02.2026 16:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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"Look, ma, a strong moderate!"

Sick and tired of false choices on this site. The over-performers, like Sen Gallego, show us the way.

www.semafor.com/article/02/2...

27.02.2026 16:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Yeah, I've never run for office. That's why I cited over-performers -- the experts. They show how to be a strong moderate. If you have issue with how they win more votes than baseline partisanship, take it up with them!

27.02.2026 16:28 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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For that matter, Mamdani has moderated on a ton of issues: police, schools, most recently homeless encampments? Does that make him weak? Not in my book -- he still has Trump wrapped around his finger after all!

27.02.2026 14:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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When the June 2024 debate proved that Biden--after an incredibly impressive career--was no longer able to lead our party, who was strong enough to speak the plain truth to Americans? Many moderates!

Some progressives too, but the progressive leaders were riding the "Biden or Bust" train off a cliff

27.02.2026 14:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1
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When Rep. Chuy Garcia subverted democracy and denied his own constituents the power to choose their next representative in Congress, who spoke truth the power? Not the Leftists!

27.02.2026 14:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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What is this disease that has infected our side that moderation and strength are automatically anti-correlated?

27.02.2026 14:35 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

Cool data from @gelliottmorris.com that indicates that strong moderate Dems should over-perform the most.

Strong moderate is an oxymoron you say?

Great example of strong Dem moderation comes from Rep. Marie G-P out of a Trump district in WA state.

www.instagram.com/reels/DB7oGl...

27.02.2026 14:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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Scoop: Energy Department Meeting With Utilities, Developers on Trump’s Nuclear Plans The public-private project aims to help realize the president’s goal of building 10 new reactors by 2030.

NEW:

US ENERGY DEPARTMENT IN TALKS OVER MAJOR NEW NUCLEAR POWER PROJECT

The Energy Department and Westinghouse are meeting with utilities & developers about a new project to buy long lead time parts for 10 new nuclear reactors

If successful, would speed up power plant construction & lower costs

26.02.2026 20:19 β€” πŸ‘ 34    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0
A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Summary of public opinion on Donald Trump's policies."

The chart's sub-headline is: "Would you support or oppose the following? Results are among U.S. adult citizens and are averaged within topics."

The chart has the note: "Note: Questions were asked on the Economist/YouGov Poll and other YouGov surveys. "Support" includes responses of strongly and somewhat support, and "Oppose" includes responses of strongly and somewhat oppose. Responses of "not sure" are not shown. Net is the % who strongly or somewhat support minus the % who strongly or somewhat oppose."

A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Summary of public opinion on Donald Trump's policies." The chart's sub-headline is: "Would you support or oppose the following? Results are among U.S. adult citizens and are averaged within topics." The chart has the note: "Note: Questions were asked on the Economist/YouGov Poll and other YouGov surveys. "Support" includes responses of strongly and somewhat support, and "Oppose" includes responses of strongly and somewhat oppose. Responses of "not sure" are not shown. Net is the % who strongly or somewhat support minus the % who strongly or somewhat oppose."

YouGov policy polling
During Donald Trump's second term, YouGov has polled Americans about 369 policies proposed, endorsed, or implemented by Trump and his administration.
Average net support: -17
today.yougov.com/politics/art...

25.02.2026 02:04 β€” πŸ‘ 37    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 4

People say Bluesky doesn't have the juice?!?!!??

23.02.2026 13:49 β€” πŸ‘ 82    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

Correct tag should have been @owasow.bsky.social on this one!

23.02.2026 03:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Whoops! Sorry about that. My kingdom for an edit button.

23.02.2026 03:52 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0