Civic Forge Solutions

The plant is located in HD 32, which was uncontested since 2020, but now has 🔵 rebeccaforgeorgiastatehouse.com running.

And in SD 50, where 🔵 davecooperga.com has declared their candidacy.

Both very red districts, but a flailing local economy can sometimes reset political expectations.

If a Dem gets to the runoff (likely @shawnforcongress.bsky.social), we'd need a ~15pp swing among runoff voters to win

HD 121's Eric Gisler had a +12D swing in his special election - so, anything is possible in #GA14.

While the District is ruby red 🔴, GOTV for every 🔵 voter is the path to victory.

GA-14 Special Election Dashboard | Civic Forge Solutions Interactive dashboard tracking early voting in Georgia's 14th Congressional District special election. Explore daily ballot activity, partisan swing simulations, choropleth maps, and county-level brea...

⌛ Early Voting is now completed for #GA-14. The next (and last) chance for voting is on election day on March 10th

Yesterday saw ~6k of EV, and total EV is 60k, 19% of EV in the 2024 General

Dems getting into runoff depends on fragmentation of the Republican vote

🧵

civicforge.solutions/data/ga14

GA-14 Special Election Dashboard | Civic Forge Solutions Interactive dashboard tracking early voting in Georgia's 14th Congressional District special election. Explore daily ballot activity, partisan swing simulations, choropleth maps, and county-level brea...

Today was also the last day of early voting in #GA-14! Our early voting dashboard is now updated as of yesterday's returns.

Tomorrow we'll get Friday's returns, and I'll have an article out discussing where things stand before election day.

civicforge.solutions/data/ga14

2026 Georgia Candidates | Civic Forge Solutions Searchable, sortable list of all qualified 2026 Georgia candidates for state and federal races, with 2024 partisan lean analysis and district maps.

Today was candidate qualifying day in Georgia, and the slate of candidates is...expansive.

🚀 NEW: Here's our dashboard (for State + Federal) of all the candidates and races, along with partisan lean ratings for each district:

civicforge.solutions/data/candida...

County/Local contests TBD!

Day 15: GA-14 Early Voting Surges Past 46,000 in Final Week Day 15 early voting update for the GA-14 special election: 46,523 ballots through 15 days. The final week opened strong with 6,770 ballots over Monday and Tuesday. Three EV days remain.

Two-ish days left of EV for #GA-14, and EV returns are steady. Tomorrow and Friday should be the highest voting days, if typical trends hold.

Overall county-level voting trends remain unchanged. The big question: can a Dem win 1st or 2nd place for the plurality

civicforge.solutions/articles/day...

If the election integrity folks truly wanted to address this, then we'd see a clean bill in the Gold Dome with relevant policies & measures.

Instead, we see curtailment of drop boxes, early voting, voting hours, etc...all of which have nothing to do with GA election software/voting machines.

Real election security is anchored in access: making sure every eligible voter can vote early, by mail, or in person.

"Election integrity" is anchored in restriction: cutting hours and methods under the guise of security.

Limiting in-person voting isn't election security. It's disenfranchisement.

A sweeping proposal passed by the Senate Ethics Committee on Monday would require switching to preprinted, hand-marked paper ballots scanned by machines, end county- and municipality-wide in-person early voting, and overhaul how the state conducts election audits. It's unclear how much the dramatic changes would cost to implement.

While this proposal is likely DOA, it shows the bad faith arguments of "election integrity" advocates.

Their end goal is always to suppress votes and voting.

They start with something semi-reasonable, then it's "no more early voting" and then, no voting at all.

www.ajc.com/politics/202...

Day 13: GA-14 Early Voting Passes 39,000 After Strong Friday Rebound Day 13 early voting analysis for the GA-14 special election: 39,749 ballots returned through 13 days of early voting. Friday posted the highest single-day total since Week 1, Saturday exceeded the fir...

#GA14 Special Election Update: Overall trends are unchanged & Sunday voting was very light. Five more days of EV left (last day on Fri).

GOP voters have the advantage. Yet, we live in chaotic and unpredictable political times, where upsets are always possible!

civicforge.solutions/articles/day...

Day 10: GA-14 Early Voting Hits 33,000 as Week 2 Pace Settles Day 10 early voting analysis for the GA-14 special election: 33,027 ballots returned through Thursday of Week 2. Daily pace has dropped below Week 1 levels, with Thursday posting the lowest weekday to...

Friday #GA14 Early Vote Update! We've crossed the 30k early voting mark. Total est. EV is expected at 20% of the 2024 general. Sat & Sun voting this wknd.

It's a tough race for Dems, but higher turnout in Cobb & Paulding will keep possibilities open.

civicforge.solutions/articles/day...

#GA-14

#GA-14 Special Election early voting updates now available at civicforge.solutions/data/ga14.

Dashboards are updated daily and include forecasted EV totals, estimated turnout by party, and maps!

With lots of re-quotes about a potential blue wave in TX, here's early modeling from the #GA-14 special that indicates some potential weakening in 🔴 turnout.

But, total GA-14 turnout needs D+12 to D+15 to make this a competitive contest.

More EV data tomorrow!

civicforge.solutions/articles/ga1...

ℹ️ Correction: this post included a calc error that was fixed in an update. The original post overcounted 2026 EV for GA-14. The title of the post should have said "GA-14 EV Crosses 20k ballots."

Subsequent calculations have been rechecked and confirmed.

Today's update: bsky.app/profile/hell...

ℹ️ These figures include a correction to 2026 EV calculations from this week, in which votes were over-counted. Previous articles from this week referencing the data have been retroactively corrected.

📝 The next full written analysis will be published on Tuesday w/ Monday's vote counts.

A bar and line graph titled "GA-14 Special Election: Daily Early Vote Comparison." The chart compares the daily ballots accepted for the 2026 Special Election against the 2024 General Election, aligned by "Days Until Election Day." Visual Elements X-axis: Counts down from 22 days to 4 days until Election Day, labeled with the day of the week. Y-axis: Represents "Daily Ballots Accepted," ranging from 0 to 6,000. Data Series: 2024 General (Dotted Line with markers): Shows a generally higher turnout, peaking at 5,632 ballots on Day 18 (Friday) and dipping significantly on Sundays. 2026 Special (Actual - Solid Blue Bars): Covers Day 22 (Mon) through Day 16 (Sun). Day 18 shows the highest actual volume so far at 4,720 ballots. 2026 Special (Projected - Striped Blue Bars): Projects turnout from Day 15 (Mon) down to Day 4 (Fri). Key Insight: The 2026 actual and projected turnout consistently tracks below the 2024 general election levels. The projected 2026 Early Vote (EV) total is listed in the subtitle as approximately 55,386.

A stacked bar chart titled "GA-14 Special Election: Daily Early Voting" displaying voting data from Monday, Feb 16 to Saturday, Feb 21, 2026. The subtitle notes that 22,706 total ballots were accepted through Saturday.Data BreakdownThe chart categorizes ballots into three types: Early In-Person (blue), Absentee by Mail (orange), and Electronic Ballot (green). Early In-Person voting makes up the vast majority of the totals.DateTotal BallotsPrimary Voting MethodMon 2/163,568Mostly Early In-PersonTue 2/174,228Mostly Early In-PersonWed 2/184,016Mostly Early In-PersonThu 2/194,001Mostly Early In-PersonFri 2/204,720Peak day; mostly Early In-PersonSat 2/212,173Significant drop compared to weekdaysKey ObservationsEarly In-Person dominance: Across all days, blue bars (in-person) represent nearly 95%+ of the daily volume.Trend: Daily turnout remained steady between 3,500 and 4,300 for most of the week, peaking on Friday before dropping by more than half on Saturday.Metadata: The chart is dated Feb 22, 2026, citing the GA Secretary of State as the source, and is credited to Civic Forge Solutions LLC.

GA-14 Special Election Early Voting (EV) recorded 2,173 votes yesterday, Sat., Feb 21.

Overall, EV are running at 80% of the 2024 General Election's EV, an unusually high turnout in an off-cycle contest.

Total EV vote count is 22.7k as of yesterday with a projected total EV count of 55.4k.

🧵👇

Georgia taxpayers foot the bill for chasing down debunked election conspiracies The FBI raid of Fulton County's election warehouse only served to fuel previously debunked claims about the 2020 presidential election in Georgia.

I should have posted this earlier 🫣, but last week, @ajc.com published my Op-Ed on how election deniers' conspiracy theories cost Georgia - in tax $ and gov't resources.

For these deniers, if you never admit you're wrong, the argument never has to end.

www.ajc.com/opinion/2026...

Day 6: GA-14 Early Voting Crosses 40,000 Ballots Day 6 early voting analysis for the GA-14 special election: over 41,000 ballots returned through Friday, with the biggest single day yet. We break down where the votes are coming from and what the cou...

We're 6 days into #GA14 early vote with >40k ballots cast.

While it's too early to predict outcomes in this contest, swing precincts in Cobb County are slightly over-performing relative to 2024 EV.

Next update on Monday w/ the weekend voting update.

civicforge.solutions/articles/day...

Day 3: GA-14 Early Voting Update Day 3 early voting analysis for the GA-14 special election: State Senate 18 runoff results offer a preview of jungle primary dynamics, plus precinct-level data and swing modeling for the congressional...

Today is Day 3 of GA-14 EV. As of yesterday ~15,592 were cast.

In today's post:

🗺️ Check out a map of votes by precinct vis-a-vis 2024's GA-14 general election results

📊 Interact with our results model, with your estimates of D+ shifts

🔬plus more analysis!

civicforge.solutions/articles/day...

It looks like the Day 1 Early Voting data isn't yet available from the GA Secretary of State, so we'll need to wait another day to see what turnout looks like. Hopefully tomorrow!

Georgia taxpayers foot the bill for chasing down debunked election conspiracies The FBI raid of Fulton County's election warehouse only served to fuel previously debunked claims about the 2020 presidential election in Georgia.

Morning! Check out my guest column in today's @ajc.com 👇

#Georgia keeps footing the bill for election deniers' conspiracy theories, while the FBI raid on FulCo's election offices is a pathetic (and cynical) attempt to keep these debunked "ideas" alive.

www.ajc.com/opinion/2026...

Early Voting Day 1: The Race for Georgia's 14th District Early voting begins in the GA-14 special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene. With 21 candidates in a jungle primary, we track absentee ballot trends and explore scenarios for a potential Democ...

Today was the 1st day of early voting in the #GA-14 special election to fill the seat vacated by #MTG

Here's a rundown of the playing field and possible pathways to victory for 🔵 #Democrats

We'll have daily updates of early voting trends, all the way to EDay 🚀

civicforge.solutions/articles/day...

Hey y'all! 👋 Long time, no post. With the winter chill [hopefully] behind us, we're heading into primary season in Georgia.

Accordingly, over the coming weeks, I'll have updates & commentary on key Dem 🔵 primary races - particularly in GA House and Senate contests.

Questions always welcome, too!

and...while Mayor Dickens won with an overwhelming 85% of the vote, weaker east side support.

Despite the loss, Rohit and political allies (WFP, for example) had a strong GOTV. Next time, they may find a lot more than the 2k votes they were under in '25.

3/

Atlanta's political divide grows sharper.

The densely populated central-east precincts in D1,D2,D5, and D6's support of Rohit contrasts against the western & northern precincts.

Almost everybody in ATL is a Dem, but not everyone is a progressive.

ℹ️ ga2025.civicfs.app/atlanta?cont...

2/

Morning! Great morning for statewide Dems, GA PSC candidates & ATL D2, but not so great for City Council Pres & Marietta mayor race. I'll be writing a longer post-mortem article, but here are some initial insights on the Atlanta muni races:

ℹ️ ga2025.civicfs.app

🧵👇

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I know 💔...he literally ran the most uplifting and comprehensive campaign I've seen in recent memory. He was so close to winning too.

I know a victory is a victory and a loss is a loss, but there is something to celebrate for getting so far in a tough race to win.

I'm running out of steam and will be calling it done for tonight. Fulton County is running very late with their EDay returns - usually by 11pm.

The Council Prez race is still too close to call. But, other than if we get some numbers in the next few minutes, we'll find out tomorrow morning!

Oof. This is a tough one to report. With all precincts reporting in #Marietta, Tumlin has won over Foster by 258 votes. 😢

@samformarietta.bsky.social ran a damn good campaign, has an incredible future ahead of him, and I know we'll see him in elected office in the not-so-distant future.

Marietta 4C comprises part of Barnett Pkwy, Mt. Paran Christian School, and a few other random pieces:

(Ignore the lower right corner)