the issue with "re-running the 1990s boom" - which is now the theme of Trump 2.0 - is that trade policy and the fiscal deficit are pushing in totally THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. Yet we are starting with the same term premium in bonds that we had at the end of the 90s...
US: you're not defending Greenland enough
Denmark & Europe: *put troops in Greenland*
US: no, not like that.
from: @shashj.bsky.social
Love that it’s an ad for insanity
The utterly shameless & widely covered "report" out today, claiming net zero will "cost" £9tn is based on:
* Assuming free fossil-fuel energy, free petrol cars, free gas boilers, free gas power plants etc
AND
* Including climate damages in the "cost" of net zero
I kid you not, it is that stupid
2s10s +68bps, steepest since January 2022
Underrated comment
When a signal is found, it’s no longer a signal 🥲 or they were just extremely unlucky
AAII folks seem to have decided to take the rest of the year off.
Barely any change but notice that the 4 wk ma of bears has finally come down. Not extreme, but a lower low (since April)
Bulls 44.1%
Bears 33.2%
America vs. UK equity culture in a nutshell for young 'savers'. our 20 yr old panicking about having a lower ISA cash savings allowance should take note:
Banger post on the buzziest (but fuzziest) phenomenon in institutional investing, from @tobyn.bsky.social naturally. on.ft.com/47MeI73
Who knew that gilts loved the idea of broad-based tax measures (i.e., rises) over a charcuterie board of narrow measures. 🤷🏻♂️
@erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social hat tip!
I....cant... anymore.....😭
take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment.
US, France, UK all the same story
ChatGPT my ass
Buzzed that @thedailyshot.bsky.social is back!
Lots of factors getting rekt out there. Momentum one example but MS indices for Value (+3.3% today), Quality (+3.1% today), and Beta (-4.3% today) are all seeing super punchy moves.
The last 10 years for the median stock has been... less than ideal
State street has been publishing some interesting research lately. The one that caught my eye is on market concentration risk. According to their results, there is no predictive power in market concentration for future risk/returns.
globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/por...
Higher CAPEX and lower FCF is the name of growth in this market /s
Notwithstanding Friday’s sell-off, gold’s run this year has been something else. It’s beaten the Mag7 & Nvidia YTD.
Notwithstanding Friday’s sell-off, gold’s run this year has been something else. It’s beaten the Mag7 & Nvidia YTD.
Yesterday was the first day in a long time that gold prices rose (black) and the Dollar fell (blue). Ever since Jackson Hole on August 22, the rise in gold has been about a flight to safety out of ALL fiat currencies, but that changed yesterday. Tariffs caused a flight out of the Dollar into gold...
Goldman Sachs publishes a note on the curve steepener trade stalling on Friday
Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast
Well, this is dramatic
ETF wrappers really revolutionised the world didn’t they
Thanks for your service as usual @robinwigglesworth.ft.com
The Fed funds rate is weird and alphaville highlighted how a Fed governor called it out. This is why I go to alphaville and exactly why you should too.
it's Tonty Time
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
This chart rules
UK long-dated bond yields are off their highest levels (chart), but they have settled in a range that significantly increases debt-servicing costs for both new issuance and rolled-over debt.
This is now a common phenomenon in advanced economies, which, for countries like Britain and France...
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