Shamubeel Eaqub

YouTube video by Simplicity KiwiSaver Scheme Economy Made Simple #4 | NZ's housing crisis - and how we might fix it

The big picture on housing - my take, 10 years after book: Generation Rent. Some policy wins but it’s still not good.

Video below and also he where you get podcasts: economy made simple.

youtu.be/S1ep5KcpMrY?...

Amazing. Thanks David.

I need an intern to pull all these various datasets together!

YouTube video by Q+A with Jack Tame Survey: Surprising number of Kiwis want strong leader, no elections | Q+A 2025

NZ’s social fabric is fraying. New survey compares poorly against Australia on every dimension. Report out next week from The Helen Clark Foundation. On Q+A this morning:

youtube.com/watch?v=lRYo...

Left chart shows tax revenue is up, operating spend is up and investment is down. Right chart shows investment spend over time which rise sharply in 2023 calendar year, but has slowed sharply in 2024.

Next week NZ will pitch to foreign investors to help fill our infrastructure deficit. It may help, but we must get our house in order first. Cutting investment spend and asking others to invest instead seems fraught.

Thoughts over at LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/posts/eaqub_...

Fiscal Policies Database

Nah the guy is embarrassing. Fiscal deficit isn’t stimulus. The discretionary Covid response was big and successful in nz. See tracker from IMF: www.imf.org/en/Topics/im...

Shamubeel Eaqub on LinkedIn: Some industries are hurting more than others in this recession. I look… Some industries are hurting more than others in this recession. I look at Corporate Insolvency statistics and NZ Gazette's windup applications to keep tabs…

Some industries are hurting more than others in this recession. Thoughts on the windup applications for Nov-24:
www.linkedin.com/posts/eaqub_...

Shamubeel Eaqub on LinkedIn: The RBNZ has cut the OCR – the policy interest rate – by 0.5%pt to 4.25%… The RBNZ has cut the OCR – the policy interest rate – by 0.5%pt to 4.25%. Further reductions are necessary to floor under a deep and long recession.…

The RBNZ lowered the OCR this week to 4.25%. It’s still too high so deep in a recession and need more deep cuts in 2025. Some thoughts here: www.linkedin.com/posts/eaqub_...

Shamubeel Eaqub on LinkedIn: Kiwis are still doing it tough. They are being more careful with their… Kiwis are still doing it tough. They are being more careful with their spend and money doesn't go as far. The volume of spend per person, the chart below…

RBNZ will cut interest rates tomorrow. But we need more to put a floor under this recession. My take on retail spending: www.linkedin.com/posts/eaqub_...

US elections & NZ The US has a change of president to Donald Trump. What does it mean for NZ? It means dealing with change, especially for trade and foreign policy.

US elections, what does it mean for your retirement savings? My take over on LI: www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-ele...

Sorry haven’t been active here for a bit. The app fell off my front page. But yeah it was a first foray into this. There was really great support from the facilities managers and the funders were not involved in the work as per usual :)

An upheaval sparked by crisis It's been nearly two years since New Zealand shook off its Covid isolation, but the populace is far from content

How much of the ‘Covid hangover’ is hiding longer term fraying of the social fabric? Put forward some of my emerging thoughts on this on The Detail at RNZ. www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/t...

Shamubeel Eaqub on LinkedIn: Slides on NZ Budget 24 | 25 comments NZ's Budget 2024 delivered tax cuts (as campaigned in 2023 election, but was smaller), funded by spending reduction (as promised), and increased borrowing… | 25 comments on LinkedIn

A summary of the macro trends in budget 24 on the dark lands of linked in:

www.linkedin.com/posts/eaqub_...

Budget 24 has lived up to a dispiriting tradition of short-termism. Our spending is too lavish relative to our taxes. We are too timid on our long-term challenges. We make decisions in Budgets that are convenient for today, but stores up problems for future generations
amp.rnz.co.nz/article/fbe8...

And most of this decline in GDP per capita is because business profits have slumped. Worker compensation has gone sideways.

GDP data for Dec-23 confirmed what we knew for over a year - NZ is in recession. The economy is about making more people better off. We're doing the more people bit, not the better off bit. GDP per capita has been falling since a peak in Sep-22.

The NZ shifts are broadly in line with global agriculture price trends. Which have eased from peak at start of Russia-Ukraine war, but remain much higher than pre-pandemic times. Suggests food prices won't get much cheaper, but should not rise too much in the next year. (3/3)

The rate of food price inflation is moderating. The levels vs inflation rate is quite telling here. Sometimes annual inflation rates don't tell the full story. (2/3)

Oct-23 Food Price Index from
@Stats_NZ
shows prices have been going sideways since mid-year. But not really getting cheaper. (1/3)

Chart shows dwelling consents relative to population. Rate of consents surged during the covid years, but has fallen since then.

NZ house building surge is over? Planning rules, infrastructure and low interest rates (not necessarily in that order) really helped during the covid years. Rising immigration/population growth and slowing supply will increase housing costs and housing insecurity.

But prices are down from 2 years ago. So there’s no gains to pay tax on. www.qv.co.nz/price-index/

Oh I agree. I guess as a user of said statistical measures, I don’t even look at confidence. Trading activity - basically sales - is a decent proxy for gdp growth.

The headline ‘confidence’ statistic is basically vibes and of no use at all. But the ‘own trading activity’ measure tends to be ok tracking the economy.

Cute. Mine look related when they wear matching clothes 😂

Yes. Have two. One looks like a mini me and the other looks like a mini wife. I am just not that online…too old…

Thanks david. Have added my contribution. Happy to be contacted by stats nz should they need.

I’d be happy to be part of this.

I wonder if that assessment still stands. Recent weather events suggest they may be less predictable based on historical observations. Would be interested in any recommended reading.

It’s all household insurance. House, contents, car, health and life.

@christinahood.bsky.social on closer look, I am surprised NZ insurance premiums haven't increased as much as countries like Australia and UK. Over last 20 years average insurance premiums have increased by an additional 40% in Australia & 60% in UK! More to dig into...