Graham Watkins

Why Reforms Fail: Five Functions for Change in LAC In 2013, Mexico’s energy reform looked like a textbook transformation package: a clear legal opening, new regulators, competitive processes to attract investment, and the promise of cheaper, cleaner, ...

When these functions align, they create reinforcing loops that build capability and credibility. When they do not, predictable failure modes follow—misallocation, reversals, and erosion of trust.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/why-r...

From Technological Installation to Deployment How LAC Can Turn Turbulence into Durable Growth

open.substack.com/pub/gwatkins...

Venezuela’s Oil Boom 1920–1970: Institutional Lessons Venezuela’s oil boom between 1920 and 1970 represents one of the most compressed episodes of economic transformation in Latin American history, driven overwhelmingly by petroleum extraction. Real GDP ...

Venezuela’s Oil Boom 1920–1970: Institutional Lessons watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/venez...

How Chile Built Copper and Salmon Exports 1980–2010 Between 1980 and 2010, Chile moved from a volatile, copper-dependent economy toward a more complex export platform—still anchored in copper but complemented by a globally significant salmon aquacultur...

How Chile Built Copper and Salmon Exports 1980–2010 watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/how-c...

Trinidad & Tobago’s LNG Boom: 1998–2008 Trinidad & Tobago transformed its development trajectory between 1998 and 2008 by converting an underused natural gas reserve into a globally competitive liquefied natural gas export platform. Over th...

Trinidad watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/trini...

Mexico’s Mobile Leapfrog (1990–2010): Lessons for Transitions Between 1990 and 2010, Mexico experienced one of the most rapid transformations in communications in the developing world. At the start of the 1990s, the country had fewer than five fixed telephone li...

Mexico’s Mobile Leapfrog (1990–2010): Lessons for Transitions watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/mexic...

Mexico 1994–2007: Growth Without Diffusion—Policy for Transitions Between 1994 and 2007, Mexico executed one of the most far-reaching economic restructurings in Latin America. In little more than a decade, the country moved from a state-led, inward-oriented developm...

Mexico’s NAFTA‑era growth concentrated capital, infrastructure, and learning in export‑oriented regions, while diffusion to the rest of the country remained limited.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/mexic...

Making Renewables Work: Brazil’s Transformation, 2010–2025 Recent changes in Brazil’s power system provide a clear case study of rapid renewable-scale-up under real constraints, including droughts, high domestic interest rates, and land-use challenges. Betwee...

Making Renewables Work: Brazil’s Transformation, 2010–2025 watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/makin...

Chile’s Renewable Leap: What LAC Can Copy—and What to Fix Chile shows that clean power can be a competitiveness strategy—not just an environmental commitment. In one decade, the country moved from about 63% fossil-fuel generation in 2013 to a system in which...

Chile’s Renewable Leap: What LAC Can Copy—and What to Fix watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/chile...

The Playbook of Uruguay’s Energy Transition 2010–2024 In the early 2000s, Uruguay's electricity system was exposed on two fronts: drought could collapse hydropower output, and the backstop was imported fossil energy, exactly when regional prices were hig...

The Playbook of Uruguay’s Energy Transition 2010–2024 watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/the-p...

Costa Rica (1950-2010): a Distinctive Development Trajectory. In 1948, Costa Rica redirected the money it had been spending on its military into schools and hospitals. Emerging from a brief civil war in 1948, the country abolished its army, redirected public res...

Costa Rica (1950-2010): a Distinctive Development Trajectory. watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/costa...

Brazil’s Transformation from 1930 to 1980

Brazil’s Transformation from 1930 to 1980 watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/brazi...

Booms Without Transformation: Peru’s Guano and Chile’s Nitrates Latin America has long been rich in natural resources, and for much of its history, those resources have been presented as a promise of progress. In the nineteenth century, Peru and Chile occupied a p...

Booms Without Transformation: Peru’s Guano and Chile’s Nitrates watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/booms...

What Coffee Did That Rubber Didn’t: Brazil, 1879–1912 Between 1879 and 1912, Brazil experienced two commodity booms that unfolded simultaneously within the same country and under the same global economic forces, yet produced radically different long-term...

The tale of rubber and coffee is ultimately a reminder that development is built not on commodities themselves, but on the institutions that grow around them.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/what-...

Mexico 1876–1911 Order and Growth Without Inclusion: Revolution Mexico grew faster between 1876 and 1911 than at any other moment in the nineteenth century. Railways spread across the country, cities modernized, and exports expanded rapidly with foreign investment...

Economic growth that concentrates benefits among elites, relies heavily on external market cycles, and excludes large segments of society is inherently unstable. Mexico 1876–1911 Order and Growth Without Inclusion: Revolution watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/mexic...

Reducing Risk, Enabling Scale: Argentina’s Export Boom 1880-1914 Across Latin America, governments face a familiar challenge: how to accelerate growth under intense global competition, technological change, and constrained public resources. Argentina’s export boom ...

Argentina’s export boom between 1880 and 1914 provides a concrete case of how rapid growth can occur when markets, institutions, and the state align to support export-led, integrated development. watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/reduc... via
@grahamwatkins.bsky.social

The Great Shift: 2020–2070 in Latin America and the Caribbean Chile exports US$50 billion in copper annually. At the same time, Chile imports the software that runs its mines, manages its power grid, and processes its financial transactions. By 2050, which side ...

Countries that build the capacity to adapt, learn, and steer change will be best positioned to ensure that these transformations improve people’s lives.

The Great Shift: 2020–2070 in Latin America and the Caribbean watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/the-g...

300 Years of Technological Revolutions Reshaping Nations Technological revolutions do not just introduce modern technology and business innovations. They reorganize the entire economic ecosystem. They accelerate flows of energy, materials, capital, and know...

This blog distills the core lessons from past technological revolutions—what changes they drove, what drove them, and what states must do to turn disruption into development.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/300-y...

The Costs of Technological Change Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced multiple technological waves, beginning with steam and railways. The region has been more of a spectator to these waves than a participant, arriving la...

If the region is to become a more active participant in this technological wave, it is helpful to understand the consequences of past technological waves to better manage the process. watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/the-c...

From Microchips to Megatrends: The Global Shifts of 1970–2020 Between 1970 and 2020, the world changed faster than at any other time in human history. Microprocessors, digital sensors, personal computers, the internet, smartphones, and cloud computing all emerge...

Between 1970 and 2020, the world changed faster than at any other time in human history.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/from-...

Engines of Change 1920-1970 Cars, Planes, Fridges, Assembly Lines The human ecosystem changed fundamentally across many countries between 1920 and 1970. Much of what we recognize in modern life emerged during this period: cars, planes, refrigerators, televisions, an...

The human ecosystem changed fundamentally across many countries between 1920 and 1970. Much of what we recognize in modern life emerged during this period: cars, planes, refrigerators, televisions, and container ships.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/engin...

Third technology wave, 1870-1920: steel, electricity, & telephone One hundred and fifty years ago, countries faced challenges like those confronting Latin America and the Caribbean today. Beginning in 1870, a group of nations chose to enter the next phase of the Ind...

One hundred and fifty years ago, countries faced challenges like those confronting Latin America and the Caribbean today.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/third...

Railways, Rail Engines, Steam Ships, and Telegraph Between 1820 and 1880, leading industrial economies transitioned from waiting weeks for messages and materials to arrive to waiting minutes for messages and hours for materials.

Between 1820 and 1880, leading industrial economies transitioned from waiting weeks for messages and materials to arrive to waiting minutes for messages and hours for materials

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/railw...

First Industrial Revolution: Mines, Canals, Steam, and Textiles

A window into economic transformation and technological revolutions

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/first...

Economic Evolution and Revolution: Resources All economies change over time. Most of the time, that change is slow and incremental. But under certain conditions, an economy can shift rapidly — almost explosively — into a new mode of creating val...

All economies change over time. Most of the time, that change is slow and incremental. But under certain conditions, an economy can shift rapidly — almost explosively — into a new mode of creating value.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/econo...

Spreading Successful Ideas Across Economies The most significant difference between Latin American and Caribbean economies that move forward and those that fall behind is not necessarily how many innovative ideas they generate, but how quickly ...

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/sprea...

Latin America and the Caribbean: Three Centuries of Competition For more than 300 years, powerful economic selection forces have shaped Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Much like natural selection in biology, competition has repeatedly rewarded firms, sector...

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/latin...

Variation Matters: Diversity Shapes Economies in Latin America Variation and diversity define the world people experience every day. They are also the foundation of how economies evolve. Differences across people, firms, industries, and countries shape how quickl...

Variation and diversity define the world people experience every day. They are also the foundation of how economies evolve. watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/varia...

Saudi businesses turn to solar power as kingdom cuts energy subsidies Cost savings and sustainability targets drive demand for renewables in world’s biggest oil exporter

'Saudi Arabia’s big businesses are embracing solar power as they seek to save on energy costs after the government eliminated electricity subsidies in the world’s largest oil exporter.'

Behind a paywall but that sentence is the important part.

Clean energy has already made the EU more secure – and more can be done Clean energy is boosting the EU’s security by cutting reliance on Russian gas. Renewables, heat pumps & efficiency are key—more action is needed

Renewables helped Spain cut electricity prices by around 20% since 2021. The EU avoided €59B in fossil fuel costs since 2019. Clean energy is the best shield against volatile energy prices.

Read more: www.e3g.org/news/clean-e...