Brandon Friedman

The ministers of Nawaf Salam's 'Reform and Rescue' government After nearly a month of intense negotiations, the proverbial ''white smoke'' has finally emerged from the presidential palace in Baabda. The anticipation began on Wednesday evening, when Prime...

Lebanon’s new cabinet: full list with mini-biographies. today.lorientlejour.com/article/1447...

Iran accepts delivery of homegrown drone carrier 'Shahid Bahman Bagheri' - Naval News On February 06, 2025, IRGC accepted the delivery of the new homegrown drone and helicopter carrier ship Shahid Bahman Bagheri.

Of great interest

www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

Journey to Damascus: An Interview with Wassim Nasr, Journalist, France24 - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point Wassim Nasr is a French journalist who has been monitoring jihadi groups for more than a decade for the French news outlet France24 in French, English, and Arabic. He has conducted multiple investigat...

Journey to Damascus: An Interview with Wassim Nasr, Journalist, France24

Syria under al-Shara "is certainly not liberal or democratic. It is certainly Islamist, but it is indeed, as I like to call it, a third path away from ISIS and al-Qa`ida"

ctc.westpoint.edu/journey-to-d...

New video message from The Islamic State’s Wilāyat Khurāsān: "Hamas: A Believer In Democracy and the Right Hand of the Rejectionists" jihadology.net/2025/01/28/n...

SDF reportedly cited SNA’s continued existence and the Turkish invasion threat to counter-propose some variation of its standard offer: it will only consent to join the army as a self-contained bloc, holding on to its territory and keeping some share of the oil. That didn’t fly with Mr Sharaa.

The strategic Tishrin Dam has become a flashpoint in post-Assad Syria Clashes in Syria have increased at the Tishrin Dam, a strategic site on the Euphrates River around 30 miles south of the Turkish border controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The Turkis...

The strategic Tishrin Dam has become a flashpoint in post-Assad Syria www.longwarjournal.org/archives/202...

Website is up for my new book!
“The Iraq Wars: A Very Short Introduction” Oxford University Press. October 2025. Mark your calendars!

global.oup.com/ushe/product...

The Days of Assad's Fall: Interview A Local Defence Forces' Perspective

New in-depth interview: w/individual who served in Iran/Hezbollah-backed 'Local Defence Forces' until the very end and left Syria for Lebanon. He explains his unit's role in the fighting, his view of Assad's legacy & the roles of Russia & Iran in the war www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-days-o...

With hostage deal, Netanyahu is going all in on Trump The prime minister is risking a schism with his closest political allies to advance a deal with Hamas. He has good reason to think it’s worth the gamble

This analysis by Haviv Rettig Gur is excellent. But it, like others, doesn't account for the possibility that Trump may start pushing a revised Saudi normalization deal before the end of Phase 1 of the current hostage/ceasefire deal.

www.timesofisrael.com/with-hostage...

Sudan’s Military Has Used Chemical Weapons Twice, U.S. Officials Say The determination comes as the United States prepares to announce sanctions against the Sudanese military chief, saying there is strong evidence of atrocities in the country.

”Sudan’s military has used chemical weapons on at least two occasions against the paramilitary group it is battling for control of the country, four senior United States officials said on Thursday.”

@declanwalsh.bsky.social
@julianbarnes.bsky.social
@nytimes.com

www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/w...

Concise attempt at a summary from a lengthy speech from AMH: if Gaza cease fire holds, they hold fire in the Red Sea.

Surprising move by Syria’s interim authorities. Customs duties on goods brought in via Syria’s border crossings with Turkey will go up by between 300 and 500 percent starting on Saturday. The decision has caused discontent on both sides of the border.

It is interesting that Blinken acknowledges Turkey/President Erdogan "using his weight to bring Hamas back to the table," while Fidan was cautious during yesterday's press conference with Hasan Seybani not to take any credit for Turkey (neither did the press statement of the Turkish MoF).

Erdoğan’s Syria baggage and delegation of rookies Shaping Syria requires more than having a government that will write checks to Turkish contractors and having Turkish-speaking cadres. When HTS was in Idlib, it was dependent on Turkey. Now that it co...

"In fact, shaping Syria requires more than having a government that will write checks to Turkish contractors and having Turkish-speaking cadres. When HTS was in Idlib, it was dependent on Turkey. Now that it controls Damascus, its options have multiplied"
www.duvarenglish.com/erdogans-syr...

Mali: JNIM Attacks Key Symbols of Sufism In Nioro du Sahel, JNIM showed that no one is off limits.

This is an excellent and thought-provoking piece from Alex Thurston (not sure if he's on Blue Sky yet) about JNIM and attacks on Sufism in Mali: alexthurston.substack.com/p/mali-jnim-... Some initial thoughts, with some recent historical context to try to situate this a bit differently. 1/14

This is a good opportunity to reup this thread I put together a while back on how to pitch effectively.

At War on the Rocks, we have submissions rejection rate over 90%. Many of the articles we reject are perfectly fine, but not a good fit. For example, some are too specialized for our audience or narrow in focus, while still making an argument important for a sub-community of military professionals.

Highlights: Saudi Arabia hosts "Riyadh Meetings on Syria" with Western, Arab, Turkish, and Syrian caretaker FMs, alleged HTS splinter Katibat Sayf al-Bahr claims first attack in Rif Dimashq, and Syria-based Egyptian HTS foreign fighter establishes new group to overthrow the Sisi regime

One could just consider Lapid's thanking Turkey for preventing Iranian attacks on Israelis in Turkey in mid- 2022 and Israel search and rescue teams extracting Turks from the rubble in the aftermath of the 2023 earthquake. Not so long ago.

Read this thoughtful thread on Israel-Turkey relations:

Syria « Journey to Damascus », my 2nd meeting with al-Sharaa, a 1st hand detailed insight about the Aleppo battle and how things are unfolding & a few revelations from the 1st meeting with Abu Mohamad al-Julani during my 2023 « Journey to Idlib »
ctc.westpoint.edu/journey-to-d...

Islamic State Editorial on the New Orleans Attack Unsurprisingly, when news emerged of a truck-ramming and shooting attack in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, the question arose as to whether the attack had some connection to the Islamic State: a quest...

Full translation & overview of Islamic State editorial on the New Orleans attack, covering issues such as the fact that the group may praise & bless attacks without officially claiming them, and what the attack means for the wider U.S.-led war on the group www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/islamic-st...

Joseph Aoun elected President of Lebanon, ending two-year void The election of army commander Gen. Joseph Aoun garnered rare consensus among the Lebanese, backed by the US and Saudi Arabia. It was the first presidential election for Lebanon following the fall of ...

🚨BREAKING: Gen. Joseph Aoun Elected President of #Lebanon. MAJOR breakthrough for Beirut ends two-year void: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

muse.jhu.edu/pub/3/articl...

Not surprising, but disappointing, no mention of Israel's good neighbor policy, which residents of the area benefited from...

I saw it in boxing terms: two fighters, punched out, retired to their respective corners for a breather, waiting for the next bell to ring...

How Iran Lost Syria A stable post-Assad future will require Tehran’s involvement.

In my latest for @foreignaffairs.com, I examine why #Iran didn’t step in to prevent Assad’s downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as #Syria breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...

Just to be clear: I am not endorsing or condemning a prospective deal. I am trying to understand what it might entail and identify how each party sees its interests.