Alexander Donges

And, by the way, no one really cares about it - at least among German politicians, even though demography is, in my opinion, our most serious economic challenge. /END

I fully agree. But even the best childcare etc. can not fully compensate for the opportunity costs. The best we can do is to stabilize the FR at a low equilibrium, but imo we will not see a significant increase that would solve our demographic problems. 1/

that these messures are enough to cause a strong reversal in the fertility rate. The main reason for the decline in the latter is higher education and thus better employment opportunities for women. /END

I have seen some data that, in Germany, the fertility decline is mainly driven by a later age when the first child was born, consequently fewer consecutive children (while the share of childless women is fairly stable over time). Better childcare etc. may increase fertility, but I have doubts… 1/

Thank you for the amazing podcast episode and for featuring @thilohuning.bsky.social and my research on the role of wine growing for long-run regional development in Baden-Württemberg (academic.oup.com/ereh/advance...) in the episode!

We are looking to hire post-doc interested in working on migration, citizenship, and diaspora. Come join us in Münster! Generous contract + no teaching for 2 years.

Many details and link to job add here:

sites.google.com/site/tnhalbe...

Please PM me incase you have questions!

After being an editor for 6.5 years (4 REStud; 2.5 JEEA), I have accumulated a few suggestions that can help you avoid unnecessary rejections.

Erschreckend ist vor allem, dass die Republikaner diesem Schwachsinn mehrheitlich quasi apathisch zuschauen. Und ja: wer in DE jetzt noch Trump, Musk etc. noch unterstützt, dem ist nicht mehr zu helfen. Ökonomisch ist das alles absurd.

Going to give this website a try - with a new profile picture! Definitely feels like an econ bubble, but I guess that’s the point.

Expect a thread on my newest work, Malthusian Migrations (with @romainwacziarg.bsky.social), soon! 🚨

www.guillaumeblanc.com/files/theme/...

🚨 Migration as escape valve from Malthus 🚨

1) high fertility or late fertility transition -> spread of diasporas
2) Age of Mass Migration -> transition to modern growth

www.nber.org/papers/w33542

@nber.org @romainwacziarg.bsky.social

*Best Paper Award Economic and Social History*

Bis zum 09. März kann man sich noch mit Vorträgen, die für den kommenden 6. Kongress für Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte angenommen wurden, für den Best Paper Award Economic and Social History bewerben. Alle weiteren Informationen hier: udue.de/0ifec

Nice paper!

Some wine grapes

Can winegrowing cause rural development? @wahlfabi.bsky.social and I have just published our little piece on this in the European Historical Economics Review! academic.oup.com/ereh/advance... #econhist #economics #history

This is a great data source for scholars working on the economic history of the interwar period 👇

I don’t make any statement whether this behavior is rational or not. Overall, it is not very rational to vote AfD. Nevertheless, if you talk with people in rural areas, this was a big deal.

And we see of course a strong negative correlation between low population density (= rural areas) and AfD voting. /END

Also interacted with time, since my impression is that the AfD gained momentum due to the long „heating law debate“ - below average income people living at the country side in their own house are those who are primarily affected by this regulation. 2/

For me, the most striking result of these regressions is the that the „East Germany“ effect gets insignificant when controlling for enough variables, at least in the most recent election. (Also knowing that we only see correlations.) Would be interesting to see the effect of „Home Ownership Rate“ 1/

Generell wäre ein Crashkurs in empirischer Wirtschafts- bzw. Sozialforschung für viele Journalisten sehr sinnvoll.

If one attempts to fit a simple regression model for the AfD's gain since 2021, other predictors appear to be more robust than the GDP per capita of a constituency. Per capita disposable income also seems to be a weak predictor and quickly becomes insignificant when control variables are added.

Könnte mir vorstellen, dass es hier eine positive Korrelation gibt. Mein Gefühl (noch nicht gestützt durch Daten) ist, dass die Heizungsgesetz-Diskussion der AfD nochmal einen starken Push von ~10 auf ~20 gegeben hat, relevant vor allem für Leute mit kleinem Haus. / END

Anekdotisch: in meinem alten Heimatkreis Calw (Schwarzwald, ökonomisch sehr solide Gegend ohne Not) hat die AfD auch schon stärker abgeschnitten als der Rest. Ich würde noch „Home Ownership Rate“ in die Regression aufnehmen… 2/

Danke für die Regressionen. Für mich vor allem interessant, dass der Ost-Dummy insignifikant wird. In den Medien wird immer noch das Narrativ verbreitet, dass die AfD im Osten stark ist. Wenn ich mir aber jetzt die Karte anschaue, sieht man z.B. auch in RLP hohe Anteile… 1/

ZEW Mannheim @zew.de is on the Sky now. Follow us and add us to your starter packs for economic analyses from and for Germany, Europe, and beyond!

#EconSky

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Eigentlich wäre Tesla der perfekte Short-Kandidat, aber es besteht eben das Risiko, dass er mit Buddy Trump irgendeinen Deal macht, der der Aktie wieder einen Push gibt. (Ähnliches gilt für Palantir.)

Join my new Public Economics team at @unileipzig.bsky.social! A 100% PhD/Postdoc position with teaching and a 75% PhD position in a DFG research project on the triangle of growth, housing and voting in Germany with @sebastiankohl.bsky.social & @trgn.bsky.social. Apply until Feb 28

Nice paper!

The Short Case for Nvidia Stock All the reasons why Nvidia will have a very hard time living up to the currently lofty expectations of the market.

This is one of the best recent articles on the development of AI companies and NVIDIA‘s market power (which may decrease in the near feature, raising serious doubts about its current valuation…)

youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/05_the_...

This is a very important paper for economists analyzing spatial data 👇