Charles Kenny

At its peak, about 1 in 7 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa caused by HIV/AIDS. It is now one in 20. PEPFAR takes a lot of credit. Since the launch of PMI in 2005, death rates from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa are down by a third. This is the time to double down, not walk away.

Unpacking the US’s New Global Health Strategy: Retreating When We Could Be Winning After months of devastating news about cuts to US global health programming, the Trump administration's America First Global Health Strategy presents some grounds for optimism. It signals continued U....

Eisenhower promised to end malaria, Obama promised an AIDS-free generation. This administration could be the one to deliver. It would be an impressive legacy.

www.cgdev.org/blog/unpacki...

At its peak, about 1 in 7 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa caused by HIV/AIDS. It is now one in 20. PEPFAR takes a lot of credit. Since the launch of PMI in 2005, death rates from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa are down by a third. This is the time to double down, not walk away.

In high prevalence settings, putting just 4% of the population on lenacapavir might prevent 20% of new HIV infections.

And HIV vaccines are on the horizon. An Operation Warp Speed for highly effective, cheap-to-manufacture malaria and HIV vaccines would be game-changing.

We now have some of the tools to achieve this vision: We have the potential to vaccinate all children at risk against malaria in the next couple of years and save over 800,000 children’s lives by 2030.

The way to speed transition isn’t to wait until countries like Malawi has the capacity and income required to provide the services to fight these diseases today, it is to dramatically reduce the capacity and income required to successfully fight these diseases tomorrow.

Maybe possible in eg South Africa, but what about Malawi: health spending is $40 per person per year (or 0.3% US level), less than 25% of healthcare providers demonstrate an ability to both diagnose and treat malaria with anaemia.

Also good: more government-to-government, integration, unified health information systems, cutting-edge innovations.

But: strategy is US assistance levels will decline from 2027, & very rapid universal transition to government provided and then recipient government paid.

Welcome that—at least in the short term—the strategy promises to “ensure funding for 100% of all frontline commodity purchases and 100% of all frontline healthcare workers who directly deliver services to patients.”

Blog with Ramona Godbole: Unpacking the US’s New Global Health Strategy: Retreating When We Could Be Winning.

There's stuff to like in the US global health strategy, but its built around rapidly sunsetting finance rather than rapidly sunsetting HIV & malaria deaths. Not Great...

Trump’s USAID pause stranded lifesaving drugs. Children died waiting. USAID antimalarial and HIV supplies valued at nearly $140 million were delayed in the first half of the year or not delivered at all due to the Trump administration’s foreign aid pause, The Post found...

Widespread disruptions to the delivery of lifesaving US foreign assistance including antiretrovirals and malaria medicines laid out in this:

www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio...

Who Bears the Burden? Tracking the Global Impact of Recent US Foreign Policy Shifts Since January, the United States has adopted a range of foreign economic policies with negative impacts on the rest of the world, including higher tariffs on exports, taxes on remittances, and reducti...

Rich oil and gas exporters relatively unscathed by recent US foreign economic policy. US allies, not so much.

[darker green, bigger impact].

www.cgdev.org/blog/who-bea...

Another call for better aid reporting. Axel Dreher says we should distinguish & report separately on:

1. Humanitarian aid
2. Global public goods
3. Development aid

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

This is true, & backed by the best peer-reviewed research.

@kevinshih.bsky.social of @ucrchass.bsky.social uses large shocks to international student supply in the past to test the hypothesis that they crowd out natives. They crowd *in* natives, via tuition revenue—>

doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

Foreign aid from the United States saved millions of lives each year For decades, these aid programs received bipartisan support and made a difference. Cutting them will cost lives.

Foreign aid from the United States saved millions of lives each year by @hannahritchie.bsky.social and @simonvanteutem.bsky.social

ourworldindata.org/us-foreign-a...

When trade deals expire: What’s at stake for Africa and the US?

Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025.

Full data story: ▶️ ow.ly/Hq0w50X3E9a

Demanding Results: Global Views on International Cooperation A new survey of more than 36,000 people from across 34 countries shows that while people believe in global cooperation, they are hungry for more effective systems. In fact, 75% of people would support...

Meanwhile the IMF communications department appears to have a lot of work to do...

www.rockefellerfoundation.org/reports/dema...

Apparently people in client countries trust the World Bank more than people in donor countries (I'd argue that's a piece of evidence that the World Bank is doing its job right).

It appears the US has pulled out of an international organization that is comparatively trusted within the US (WHO).

This, from a survey paid for by Rockefeller Foundation, interesting on who trusts which international organizations worldwide....

Update:

USASpending still reporting non-zero obligations to only 11 international orgs this fiscal year (which ends tomorrow). This excludes (ia) World Trade Organization, NATO, WHO, FAO, UPU, ITU IMO, WMO, WIPO...

www.usaspending.gov/federal_acco...

From what we know, I don't think much of this spending is going to be targeted toward the most effective uses of development assistance.

Good news for UK, EU countries, Korea and Japan though, you're eligible for spending! (Sorry Canada, New Zealand and Australia, better luck next time).

... 'preventing mass migration" subsidizing US firms to compete with Chinese firms, "conservation work in Greenland", subsidizing US firms to build mines, and "activities to incentivize partners to support US immigration policies." ...

Some good stuff! peacebuilding between Armenia and Azerbaijan, community based policing in Latin America, energy in Ukraine, stabilization in DRC... and then...

Trump administration eyes USAID money to advance America First goals A State Department plan to reallocate close to $2 billion in foreign aid marks the latest challenge to Congress’ authority over federal spending.

The Economic Support Fund has been used recently to finance (ia): the budget of the government of Ukraine; private sector development, governance, fighting disease... now the Administration wants to use $1.4 billion from it for (short thread)...

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Catholic Schools in the Congo Ban Pregnant Girls Almost everywhere, girls who get pregnant in school are allowed to finish their education. Only five countries still have explicit bans or restrictions: Afghanistan, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Kuwait, a...

Please Pope Leo: speak to this foolish meanness. Sometimes it's embarrassing (and maddening) to be even a "fallen-away" Catholic: www.cgdev.org/blog/catholi...

World Bank documents I would now like to see:

1. Country Economic Memorandum for Eastern Roman Empire, 395
2. Environmental review of Kubla Khan's Stately Pleasure Dome Project
3. Board minutes discussing WDR 1000: Entering the New Millennium

Who will be first out of the door with "World Bank Lending and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Millennia of Data"?

Projects & Operations | The World Bank

projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-...

Favorite World Bank graph of all time.

Now I know your fancy econometricians with their highfalutin' views on causality and its demonstration might want to argue, but sometimes evidence speaks for itself. Almost Perfectly matches a graph of global GNI over time and the conclusion is obvious.