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Adam Shapiro

@adamshap.bsky.social

Macrodata Refinement Personal account | Views are my own

3,798 Followers  |  1,198 Following  |  328 Posts  |  Joined: 08.10.2023
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Posts by Adam Shapiro (@adamshap.bsky.social)

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Chinese import prices up about 8% over the year

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

08.03.2026 16:38 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

β€œThe higher December prices for Chinese imported goods of over 8% year-over-year would imply a conservative estimate of the tariff pass-through of at least 28-32%.”

08.03.2026 16:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Chinese import prices up about 8% over the year

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

08.03.2026 16:38 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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From the Dallas Fed:

06.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Pacific Northwest is somehow immune from the oil price shock

07.03.2026 07:28 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

β€œif the recent pace of decline continues, these immigration outflows could result in a net loss of 51,000 unauthorized immigrant workers per month in 2025, or 612,000 for the year.”

06.03.2026 14:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Not good

06.03.2026 15:41 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

β€œif the recent pace of decline continues, these immigration outflows could result in a net loss of 51,000 unauthorized immigrant workers per month in 2025, or 612,000 for the year.”

06.03.2026 14:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.

www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

06.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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From the Dallas Fed:

06.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ€”

06.03.2026 14:19 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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This is a big shock to oil

05.03.2026 14:03 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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As another β€œproof of concept” of the SF Fed supply- and demand-driven inflation series:

Professional forecasters view a supply shock occurring when supply-driven inflation is high and a demand shock occurring even demand driven inflation is high

www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

04.03.2026 16:36 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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As another β€œproof of concept” of the SF Fed supply- and demand-driven inflation series:

Professional forecasters view a supply shock occurring when supply-driven inflation is high and a demand shock occurring even demand driven inflation is high

www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

04.03.2026 16:36 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Blue is a poor color choice for land

03.03.2026 02:38 β€” πŸ‘ 15    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Blue is a poor color choice for land

03.03.2026 02:38 β€” πŸ‘ 15    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

β€œThe number of computer programmers, who assist developers in ensuring code runs properly, was down slightly in the last year, in line with a secular decline in place for decades. Neither trend shifted much after ChatGPT’s arrival in late 2022.”

28.02.2026 05:48 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Tech Has Never Caused a Job Apocalypse. Don’t Bet on It Now. Neither theory, history nor the latest data suggests a recession driven by AI job dislocation is likely.

www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

28.02.2026 05:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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😳

28.02.2026 05:45 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Didn’t realize how big the Fed’s balance sheet was in the 30s

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

28.02.2026 04:28 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Just the beginning?

www.frbsf.org/research-and...

28.02.2026 04:25 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Some perspective on how much money tariffs are bringing in

26.02.2026 16:14 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ€”

26.02.2026 19:14 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Some perspective on how much money tariffs are bringing in

26.02.2026 16:14 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Always check both Uber and Lyft:

β€œNYC riders collectively forgo approximately $300 million in potential annual savings by not comparing prices between platforms”

www.nber.org/202602/diges...

24.02.2026 16:40 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Not yet, apparently

24.02.2026 16:58 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Always check both Uber and Lyft:

β€œNYC riders collectively forgo approximately $300 million in potential annual savings by not comparing prices between platforms”

www.nber.org/202602/diges...

24.02.2026 16:40 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Venezuelans Hated Maduro but Are Giving His U.S.-Backed Allies a Chance The country’s interim leader, Delcy RodrΓ­guez, is opening the oil sector under American pressure, giving her a path to legitimacy.

www.wsj.com/world/americ...

24.02.2026 06:04 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ

22.02.2026 16:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

That was the best ice hockey game I’ve ever seen

22.02.2026 15:58 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0