Adam Shapiro

Some evidence that the economy is still running a bit hot:

Cyclical inflation is way down from its peak, but still substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels.
www.frbsf.org/research-and...

The US may be running the wrong AI race China’s favouring of small and cheap models such as DeepSeek could prove to be the better bet

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The US may be running the wrong AI race

😳

An impressive public health breakthrough

Looks like it’s a US thing

news.gallup.com/poll/697382/...

😮

😮

Some evidence why consumers are still unhappy

on.ft.com/3M3EA5S

Also evidence that nobody cares that beer is cheap

Some evidence why consumers are still unhappy

on.ft.com/3M3EA5S

Happy Thanksgiving!
🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃

Monetary policy tightening raises longer-term yields only when inflation is driven by strong demand.

www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

Update on the state of the job market courtesy of a nudge by @gottliebecon.bsky.social

It's bad!

paulgp.com/2025/11/24/j...

Monetary policy tightening raises longer-term yields only when inflation is driven by strong demand.

www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

H/T to Torsten Slok for this SF Fed chart illustrating demand-side influences overtaking supply-side factors as the primary driver of US inflation.
Why this matters:
1. The Fed: Inflation driven more by demand than supply factors argues against a rate cut just as worries mount about the ...

1 of 2

U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify swastikas, nooses as hate symbols The military service, which falls under the Department of Homeland Security, has drafted a new policy that classifies such items “potentially divisive.”

Exclusive: The U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify the swastika, nooses and the Confederate flag as hate symbols.

The military service drafted a new policy that classifies them as “potentially divisive.”

yikes

Wealthy Calif. town moves to permanently ban pickleball "This is not a good location for pickleball."

It’s happening…

www.sfgate.com/centralcoast...

It’s a good paper!

Yes

Tarrifs tend to raise unemployment and lower inflation.
(you read that right, lower inflation)

www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

Olive Garden is shutting down all of its 900 stores for 24 hours. Here is why. — Time Out USA When we first learned about Olive Garden's intention to shut down all of its 900 stores for 24 hours, we panicked. Was the news a signal of more permanent shutterings to come? Alas: the temporary clos...

You’re going to have to find alternative ways to get chain restaurant pasta today apple.news/APLkcE64UQlK...

This is just wrong

“Medicare increases life expectancy by about 1 year at age 65”

economics.uchicago.edu/sites/defaul...

Mag 7 approaching 100% of the entire stock market

YouTube video by MechaNikos Jerry Seinfeld on Halloween (Stand-up in New York)

youtu.be/MarBVyZVe9s?...

Mag 7 approaching 100% of the entire stock market

Didn’t know this

I'd love to help make BlueSky one of the places where young scholars introduce themselves and their work to the world.

If you're a PhD student whose work at least partially focuses on economics of education or education policy, reply to this thread and I'll highlight your work.