Spring is springing! Grateful for green things.
Yes and yes.
Friendly reminder for anyone interviewing candidates: it is illegal to ask whether candidates have kids, their religious affiliation, & whether they were born in the US. Requiring people to fly out for an in-person visit but setting 2/3 of their interviews on zoom isn’t illegal but is quite rude.
Had drinks w a friend who just did a fly out for a TT academic job and I don’t understand how universities haven’t been sued into oblivion for labor law violations. Or mocked into shame by the Onion. Or both.
Also I would happily read 3000 words on “Bikes, cars, walkable suburban centers and the (in)dependence of American teenagers in John Hughes’ America”.
Perfect Gen X Valentines celebration: 40th anniversary of Pretty in Pink. 80s hairstyles and clothes have not aged well. Class signals have shifted. But soundtrack still one banger after another.
Happy Valentine’s Day to people who love their cities and want to share them with more neighbors. ❤️
I wish more reporters routinely asked "what's the counterfactual?" to frame their stories. PHX built a ton of housing & prices/rents didn't drop in absolute levels -- in part b/c PHX absorbs out-migrants from non-building places. What if CA doesn't build AND PHX didn't build much? So much worse.
Housing research friends, are you excited to study how state pro-housing policies are working? The Infrastructure team @arnoldventures.bsky.social just launched an RFP for Measurement & Evaluation of State & Local Housing Supply Reforms. Details:
www.arnoldventures.org/infrastructu...
One last note: please, please, do not run a 50-state regression with pre- and post-zoning reform dummy variables on the RHS. That's like saying that getting your appendix removed is equivalent to taking antibiotics for strep (generic "treatment"). Just...don't.
Social scientists have a golden opportunity to harness good research for the public good. State legislatures are becoming labs of housing policy experimentation. Researchers can help policymakers understand what works & what doesn't in real time -- practical, relevant, & useful to real people. (end)
Policymakers will benefit from simple, timely, thoughtfully designed descriptive analysis--well-measured outcomes clearly documented--not just gold standard evaluations 10 years from now. Both qualitative & quantitative analysis can be hugely useful.
5) New policies are layered on top of old ones. Legalizing ADUs in CA (w/ its infinite nest of decades-old anti-housing policies) will work differently than legalizing ADUs in MT or TX (we think). Macroeconomic trends--tariffs, WFH, immigration crackdowns--also intermediate pro-housing policies.
4) Can't believe I got to #4 before hitting endogeneity...states (cities) with political will to pass pro-housing policies behave differently in lots of ways than states (cities) that don't. But...can state policies push NIMBY localities to build more? We hope so?
3) It's surprisingly hard to measure the most direct outcome of pro-housing policies: how many homes get built each year. Even harder to measure new construction by structure type (we have no natl ADU inventory!) or location (in transit/job corridors). Frustrating but fixable...stay tuned.
2) Figure out how (whether) states are enforcing compliance with new policies. A strong policy on paper that's not enforced will have little impact. Understanding implementation & enforcement also helps pin down *when* policies actually go into effect (eg, was it held up by litigation).
1) Do the work to *understand* the policy. State pro-housing policies take different forms, target different market segments, & often come bundled with multiple components. These can't be accurately captured by a "pro-housing policy" dummy variable!
30+ states have now adopted policies to boost housing production. Which means exciting opportunities for researchers to study these policies' effectiveness. Some guidance from me, via @niskanencenter.bsky.social, on how to design good state policy evaluations:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-evalu...
My dream Super Bowl mayoral bet: losing city legalizes 6-story apartments everywhere. Winning city legalizes 6-story apartments *and* corner stores/coffeeshops everywhere. You’re welcome!
Come join my team! I'm hiring a Housing Director to support implementation of pro-housing policies by state & local govts (zoning reform, streamlined development process). Looking for someone with substantial local/state govt experience in housing & land use. www.arnoldventures.org/careers/dire...
DC trying to be Philly but less spicy. Show me your favorite don’t-touch-my-dugout-parking-space marker!
Longest. January. Ever.
In a well functioning market, housing prices & rents should rise at the rate of overall inflation & proportional to income growth. (This is a very boring policy prescription & terrible campaign slogan but good for most Americans.)
USPS carriers doing truly heroic work this week to navigate icy sidewalks. (Which really should be cleared by DC to be overcome collective action problems. But that’s another rant.)
Clearing my front walk was less shoveling snow and more breaking up large blocks of ice. Ooph. My middle-aged back did not enjoy the experience.
"empower local govts to adopt the affordable housing programs they want" is a non-solution solution.
California doesn't need a new wealth tax, it just needs to repeal Prop 13.
Making public service jobs unpleasant and/or unsafe will deter good people across the political spectrum from wanting to serve.
NoMa’s new housing is great but would even better at 2-3x the height.
There isn’t a simple or easy solution. Some people will be at least temporarily displaced. Neighborhoods will look different. Legal protections and rights of return have to be part of the discussion. But hanging onto crumbling buildings out of fear of change doesn’t seem like a great plan.
