Rob Ford

New YouGov poll finds that for the first time, a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump *strongly.* His overall approval is down to 38%, a new second-term low.

When is the last time a majority has disapproved strongly of a president?

When we talk about Baby Boomers not getting off the stage: In 1997, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2007, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2017, the US president was born in 1946.

And next year in 2027? The US president will have been born in 1946.

No Second Chances: The Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second Referendum Join Mile End Institute to celebrate the publication of Morgan Jones’s new book about the campaign for a second EU referendum and its impact

Why did the People's Vote campaign fail? Could Brexit have been stopped? What lessons can be learned?

Join us on 19 March to launch @morganj0nes.bsky.social's new book: "No Second Chances: The Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second Referendum".

All welcome!
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/no-second-...

Three weeks of mass exposure to Matthew Goodwin’s worldview have not done the Reform brand much good

British Academy response to the Department for Education's technical consultation on the Interational Student Levy 18 February 2026 Background The Department for Education is consulting on the proposed levy on international student income, due to be introduced in England in August 2028.

‘We remain deeply concerned that universities will be unable to absorb the cost of the levy’s
introduction. The loss of cross-subsidy for domestic teaching & research will harm
universities’ ability to deliver their core functions’
Our response to the levy
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...

Updated Scotland poll tracker.

SNP 5 short of a majority.

Pro-independence majority of 15.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 60 (-4)
Ref: 21 (+21)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Grn: 12 (+4)
Con: 10 (-21)
LD: 8 (+4)
Alba: 0 (-)

1/2

Maria is of course also on here at @profsob.bsky.social - I should have tagged her, I blame lack of coffee...

Between this and the rapid rate global stocks of interceptor missiles are being burned up at, this is a truly *fantastic* week for Russia.

friend sent this over from the other place and unfortunately I did laugh

Sorry!

The extent to which many senior Labour figures response to Gorton is to stick their head on the sand and reach for a comfort blanket is remarkable

Britain’s ‘open’ voters need a champion Despite their triumph in Gorton, it’s not clear the Greens have what it takes to prevent a Reform victory at the next election

This week's column: the Green surge is in part because Labour consciously decided they didn't want the votes they got in 2024:

So sorry to hear this Paula, awful stuff

What really leaps out from the full piece is how lacking in any interest in policy it is, and how all the reading that has shaped it is visibly just 'social media scrolling':

Yes Paul, people switching on mass from Labour to Green had nothing to do with values.

I for one think Goodwin's fatal error was getting caught up in a cache-misere of his own mythology

a man in a suit and tie is smoking a cigarette while sitting at a table . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is smoking a cigarette while sitting at a table .

Just one thing ... you said you were wearing a cache-misère of your own mythology...what was under that?

And that 28% is only going one way and it ain’t ‘up’.

"Richard! Stop hiding under a cache-misère of your own mythology! We have guests!"

How do you reap a hangover? Sounds improbable. This reads like that section in Politics and the English Language about the fascist octopus singing its swan song.

Added to Glasman’s unique way with words and the ‘what we did over the summer’ memo, the defining feature of Blue Labour appears to have been acting like macho, ‘deeds not words’ guys while writing flowery sixth form poetry in the guise of campaign strategy.

Whatever this is, it isn’t exactly persuasive

Don’t think there are any polls showing Lab on 25 at present, but there is a wide spread in Green share (but this is first post Gorton and Denton poll - will be interesting to see if others show same bounce

No. In 2024 LD share of seats was similar to share of votes. Every election before that seat share was below vote share

Headline poll numbers always exclude DK and won’t vote. You’re right there are a lot of them at present

Legacy parties in terms of monopolizing government thanks to a big assist from FPP. FPP penalised LDs heavily in every election until 2024.

As Maria Sobolewska and I first said in Brexitland, the legacy parties under FPP are like Tinkerbell - they need belief to survive. if people cease to believe they see the best and only options, they can die fast. Is this the moment Labour’s Tinkerbell dies?

Radical parties of the right and left in top two slots. Legacy parties getting only a third of the vote between them.

A whole new world.

Green MPs Hannah Spencer, Ellie Chowns, and Carla Denyer standing in the House of Commons chamber

Hannah Spencer being sworn in as an MP

Earlier today, the new Member of Parliament for Gorton and Denton, Hannah Spencer was sworn in.

Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey:

"Tax exiles like Isabel Oakeshott and washed up old footballers who mock ordinary people who stay in the UK and pay our taxes... As we protect them, it's only right for tax exiles to start paying taxes to fund our armed forces, just like the rest of us".