Rob Ford

Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? No. No it can't. Come on, now.

New post: Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? (No. No it can't. Come on, now.)

davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/can-ai-rep...

During the Second Reading of the Representation of the People Bill, MP after MP got up to point out what's missing from it: fixing the voting system.

The problems with FPTP can no longer be ignored - and neither can the growing calls for PR. 📣

Here are just a few highlights:

The original revolt on the left report was more or less the opposite topic to this one - voters Labour was losing to UKIP back in the Ed M days!

Exclusive: the progressive voters abandoning Labour

That’s the summary! If you want, you can hear me talking about the full report on today’s New Statesman pod with the great @anooshc.bsky.social or her write-up on the NS website. open.spotify.com/episode/28Kr...

The other myth that needs busting is idea of this vote as ‘PMC Lanyard class’ or Muslim vote.

They're mostly frustrated lower middle class Millennial graduates. Recent homeowners or renters w/ housing costs they can’t afford. IT support, social workers, teachers. White. Normie!

Furthermore, the ceiling on total defections to the left is MUCH higher - because of the way the sociology of the Lab vote has changed over time.

You cannot over-correct and be too complacent about Lab/Reform switchers - they matter too. But Lab need both left & right swing to win.

Really fascinating and important research here

NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left?

Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems.

Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

This article was amended on 5 March 2026. An earlier version said low-skilled workers would “receive immediate access to welfare and social housing” if Labour did not make them wait longer to apply for settlement. In fact, settlement status only gives people the eligibility to apply for welfare and social housing, it does not give them instant or automatic access to such benefits. This has been clarified. From breaking news to huge investigative proje

Guardian has now [after my complaint] corrected Mahmood's deliberate & incendiary false claim settlement gives immigrants "immediate access to welfare and social housing".

Good for Gdn but embarrassing/shameful that Home Secretary deliberately misled the public for political gain like this.

Great to see this issue getting attention from MPs.

But also: look mum! There I am, in Hansard!

Sobolewska and Ford, Chris!

Why won’t these people who should be deported vote for me before I deport them??

So either Goodwin did not understand his chances in the seat he ran in (which doesn't reflect well on his credentials as an analyst) or he did and is now pretending he did not in order to undermine the legitimacy of the outcome (which doesn't reflect well on his democratic credentials)

Even a very superficial analysis of the demographics and political history of the seat would prompt the answer "only a very slim one, and largely down to factors beyond my control".

Why do people keep answering the phone to him?

Even the standfirst on this is brutal.

Sorry, what point is misleading, and why?

Their raw vote total fell from 10.3M to 9.7M, but their UK vote share increased from 32.2% to 33.8%. It is customary in the election books to focus primarily on vote shares when discussing changes, but you are right in terms of raw votes (and turnout slump in 2024 is important and underdiscussed)

Two things can be true (1) Labour's 2024 win was a remarkable feat given their 2019 starting point (2) The strategy pursued brought with it many problems which were obvious at the time, and have only intensified since - see eg this exceprt from conclusion of "British General Election of 2024"

See for example this in the conclusion (which I assume you haven't reached let - afraid it is a long book!!)

I think the resolution can be found in chapter 15 and Appendix 1 - Labour’s vote gains were heavily concentrated in Con vs Lab marginals and the party’s vote losses were concentrated elsewhere (both safe Labour seats and Con-LD marginals)

Far more will have private concerns which they won't prepared to out to the govt, even in a private open letter, already + Ministers won't have signed.

So we're approaching Iraq War levels of disconent, with a far, far weaker Govt.

This ain't gonna fly without serious concessions.

There has been some speculation about the size of a potential rebellion over the immigration proposals; Tony Vaughan's letter gives you a starting point-100 MPs opposing the changes in pretty strong terms

The Govt's majority is 158. This puts us in the top 5 largest rebellions of all time already

Deluded. Labour lost about ten points during the course of the 2024 campaign. A strategic triumph it was not.

As a former one of those students, I feel compelled to point out that even under the current system it's not 5 years for us. The fastest route has been 3 years study + 5 years skilled worker. For me it's been 4 years study + 2 graduate + 2 skilled worker, and will still be at least 2 more until ILR

Gotta love the cognitive dissonance of those who believe the Government to be extremely inefficient, slow and in dire need of efficiency improvements but is also almost instantaneously giving houses to non-citizens with lighting fast approval and delivery.

Ah…

Also the biggest categories of “won’t/can’t access it” are migrants who left and migrants who don’t claim or aren’t eligible for benefits - in neither case is your logic applicable

It’s an empirical statement not a normative one. “This is the likely effect of the system” does not mean I am endorsing the system!

Strong agree. I am still genuinely puzzled as to how the rules written came to be so poorly designed given this was a Con govt that literally won election in part because of a promise to "take back control" (of imm). Suspect lack of capacity due to COVID plus Treasury brain is big part of answer