Rob Ford

I've done...three? shows and several briefing calls where the underlying assumption has been 'this is politically difficult for the government', and the only reason to think that is that X is rife with people who think that it is difficult for the government.

Not just one, a triptych.

Electoral reform in the UK feels inevitable For the first time, a majority of voters across all parties back electoral reform and would prefer to have a coalition government.

In my latest article for substack I take a deep-dive into the numbers. georginasturge.substack.com/p/electoral-...

Did you know this was a thing?

A sustained majority of people now back electoral reform, and the rising trend doesn't show any sign of stopping.

This isn't just a by-product of more people now supporting challenger parties, e.g. Reform. It's supported by a majority of voters across all parties.

All of which means that if this or a future government actually reduced net migration to zero or below it would, in practice, be very unpopular because those trade offs would become very apparent.

This is a key table to understanding public opinion on migration. *When confronted with the real trade offs* people go for protecting the NHS and the economy over reducing migration.

The problem as per the rest of the thread is many don't believe those trade offs exist.

Are populist sore losers? Using three datasets, @arminschaefer.bsky.social and Jonas Wenker demonstrate that the winner–loser gap in satisfaction with democracy is larger among populist individuals. 👇

How Britain lost the status game The country wants its leaders to deliver. What if they can't anymore?

"I wonder, in my darker moments, if we’re going through something similar to Suez now – a less dramatic decline, perhaps, but a potentially more ruinous one."

continuing my one man campaign to brighten up your summer

The UK needs a national identity based on commonality Labour must contest the right’s attempt to connect the grievances of ‘white British’ people to those who are not white

Many people in Britain sense the relationship between them and others has changed. Populists speak directly to this, but progressives can too

My piece in today's FT on.ft.com/4or0GxW

So, you've decided to complain about a paywall… You don't like encountering paywalls. Writers don't like getting social media complaints about paywalls. Let's talk about that.

“Food, clothing, housing and heat are even more important than my hot takes (imagine!) and none of those are supplied for free, either. While we’re still in a capitalist society, writing is going to need a business model, just like everything else.”

I wrote about why writers share paywalled links.

If you, regular person, did anything like this after a fatal car accident, you would be prosecuted for a variety of crimes, including insurance fraud.

If you then repeatedly lied to the courts about it, like Tesla did, you'd get prosecuted for that too, plus stiff monetary sanctions.

Yes I would ditch the blast - both competitions have the same aims but the hundred does all of it better

Chart showing Estimated annual cost and reduction in the number of children in relative poverty after housing costs, various two-child limit options, 2029-30: UK

The most cost-effective way to reduce child poverty is to abolish the two-child limit, which would cost £7,480 per child lifted out of poverty.

If it is not scrapped then one-in-three children will be in poverty by 2029-39, including half of children in large families 👉 buff.ly/oiV5Re2

a man stands in front of a crowd with the words " are you not entertained " on the bottom ALT: a man stands in front of a crowd with the words " are you not entertained " on the bottom

Test cricket. Bloody hell.

We talk about Reform replacing the Tories but Jenrick is more overtly far right than Farage on this issue

Important (if depressing) to remember that the kind of authoritarian race-baiting expressed by Jenrick on Today (eg presenting all refugees as sexual predators and promising to deport all of them) was taboo in British politics for decades. Yet I doubt any Tory will publicly criticise him

There was a seminal analysis of this by Patrick Dunleavey decades ago, not sure about more recent work but Jack Bailey and @britishelectionstudy.com should be able to help

Latest on the "stalling" shift to electric vehicles, EU edition

More than fifty private schools shut since Labour put VAT on fees Department for Education defends ending tax breaks for independent institutions, after parents lost a legal battle at the High Court this year — view map

The headline here should say:

"Number of private schools increases by 35 - showing fears of an exodus to be unfounded".

(The increase is mentioned way down the article.)

www.thetimes.com/article/19ef...

This man is a Conservative MP and former No.10 adviser.

That "both sides" instinct has shifted with twice as much support for Palestine primarily (1 in 3) as the conflict & humanitarian emergency deepens. Support primarily for Israel (1 in 6) now is down to where core support for primarily Palestine fell to on October 2023

7/ The effect of FPTP-brain on British politics is most measured in Theresa May being a noted electoral failure, despite increasing a sitting government's vote share by 5.5 points, more than any other post-war PM.

9/ The Welsh Senedd electoral reform is an impressive case study in a party opting for a voting system that is both (in some conditions) less proportional and doesn't benefit themselves.

20/ Left-leaning voters in the south of England are *freaks* for (a reasonable proportion) actually understanding how tactical voting works, which has so far eluded most voters in FPTP systems.

33/ The fact Labour lost one-sixth of its vote share in the two months before the 2024 election is in fact significant, particularly in being a portent in the weakness of Labour's then/current coalition.

34/ Election watchers in the UK spend too little time looking at council elections, which really can highlight key GE trends ahead of time.

36/ The Lib Dem and, to lesser extent, Green local election gains since 2019 are solid and impressive in a way that isn't given enough credit.

37/ The idea that the Nick Griffin's Question Time appearance killed the BNP is total myth. Their poll average increased by 50% in the month after it, with it only falling back below the pre-appearance average when GE2010 was called.

42/ The Labour party is somewhat unusual among western European social democratic parties in having a coalition that isn't going to die off in the next 20 years, which makes their romanticisation of a voter coalition that hasn't existed for 50 years even more baffling.

43/ The main reason Britain didn't adopt PR in the early 20th century is basically a fluke dependent on the British party system being in a different place to its western European counterparts at that time.