Henry Farrell

You can read more about our Global Disorder programme - a partnership between @britishacademy.bsky.social and @carnegieendowment.org - here including footage of panels from our opening conference
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/programmes/g...

Cover of discussion paper ‘The US dollar system as a source of international disorder’

‘The more that other countries look to escape US financial coercion, the more the US will scale it up… The global dollar system may now be a source of instability rather than stability.’ Our new paper by
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social & @himself.bsky.social
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...

Thanks - really helpful

I didn't know anything about it besides something to do with matching and would love to hear the other side of it (without rancor - they are my favorites too)

On a day when the president is threatening "big retaliation" against Europe if it sells dollar assets, you might be interested in this paper from @himself.bsky.social and me on the general themes of why people want to get less dependent on the US dollar
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...

The Board of Peace is to other international institutions as Truth Social is to other social media.

small pockets for little handsies.

[I'll get my coat]

Very much looking forward to listening to this.

that fecking song is now going in my head

All the officials currently treating Europe like the Coward Of The County might want to listen again and remind themselves what happens in the last verse of that song. @himself.bsky.social describes the "anti-coercion instrument"

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...

I cannot tell you how absolutely infuriatingly this stuff comes across to Europeans.

When we say America is no longer a reliable ally, it goes considerably deeper than Donald Trump himself. This kind of complacent, condescending shit is a *huge* part of it.

Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.

“European officials, on the other hand, talk incessantly about the anti-coercion instrument, but it still fails to deter because they seem so extraordinarily reluctant to deploy it.”

@himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed.

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...

Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.

'If Europe wants to retain its independence, it needs to commit to action. The anti-coercion instrument, for all its faults, is the best option that Europe has.'

@himself.bsky.social for @nytimes.com

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...

Europe has more bargaining strength than it thinks But less than it would have if it were thinking straight

www.programmablemutter.com/p/europe-has... Bessent and Lutnick - A Farce in Four Acts.

Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.

“Most Americans don’t agree with Mr. Trump’s trying to buy Greenland, and many more oppose the idea of taking it by force. Fantasies deflate quickly once real costs become obvious, but it is impossible for Europe to impose costs without incurring risks itself.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...

Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.

Great explanation of the EU's anti-coercion instrument, with a generous helping of Schelling and deterrence theory, by the incomparable @himself.bsky.social.

oh no need for apologies at all (flyby mentions are _necessarily_ lossy compressions of the existing literature) just wanted to clarify ...

he's back

Buried Statue of Liberty in Planet of the Apes

shorter Paul Musgrave below. Longer at musgrave.substack.com/p/the-old-wo...

As I have just said elsewhere, it is the monkey's paw problem. Farrell and Newman getting prominent play? Strong signal that things are really going to shit.

Abe and I were talking last week about the "I wish for policy influence - the monkey's finger uncurls" problem. When our arguments become more topical is when the world is getting worse.

The Enshittification of American Power First Google and Facebook, then the world. Under Trump 2.0, US statecraft is starting to mimic the worst tendencies of Big Tech.

4/@himself.bsky.social and I layout here how backlash might proceed. It will create new political risk for US firms (think Silicon Valley) and undermine strategic interests with allies.
www.wired.com/story/enshit...

Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy

3/People often ask where weaponization of interdependence will end...will China build chokepoints? Events now in lock step with Underground Empire. As rule of law erodes at home, legitimacy undermined. Threat now coming from closest allies rather than adversaries.
www.amazon.com/Underground-...

Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion Abstract. Liberals claim that globalization has led to fragmentation and decentralized networks of power relations. This does not explain how states increasingly “weaponize interdependence” by leverag...

2/ @himself.bsky.social and i lay out the underlying logic of how markets have become a vector of vulnerability here.
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

1/Carney laying out in plan language the logical conclusion of US weaponization of interdependence. As US turns to coercion for parochial political goals rather than global public goods, it will spur growing backlash.

It's hard to sum up the Trump Doctrine of International Affairs, but "But I want an Oompa-Loompa now!" goes a long way

US citizen says ICE removed him from his Minnesota home in his underwear after warrantless search Federal immigration agents have detained a U.S. citizen in Minnesota at gunpoint without a warrant. That's according to ChongLy “Scott” Thao, who says agents forced open his door, entered with guns drawn and led him outside in his underwear in freezing conditions.

Federal immigration agents forced open a door and detained a U.S. citizen in his Minnesota home at gunpoint without a warrant, then led him out onto the streets in his underwear in subfreezing conditions, according to his family and videos reviewed by The Associated Press.

This is very good indeed - the contrast with Gilpin is especially useful.

The tsar's advisers whisper evil into his ear. All would be well, if only the tsar knew.