Seth Godin

Mysterious predictability A watched pot will boil. As it heats up, there's no way to predict where the cavitation will start and which bubble will arrive first. But with enough time and enough heat, it's going to boil. That tree down the street is going to lose its leaves this winter. We don't know which leaf will go last, but we can be pretty sure they'll go sooner or later.

Mysterious predictability

A watched pot will boil. As it heats up, there's no way to predict where the cavitation will start and which bubble will arrive first. But with enough time and enough heat, it's going to boil. That tree down the street is going to lose its leaves this winter. We don't…

Better vs. done "There, it's done." This is the production mindset and the rule of school. Pencils down. Hand it in. The alternative is, "Sign me up for a commitment to better." Ship an update every day. Learn from what works, relentlessly improve what doesn't. The hard part about this path is persisting. Never done projects pile up pretty quickly. That's precisely why they're a competitive advantage.

Better vs. done

"There, it's done." This is the production mindset and the rule of school. Pencils down. Hand it in. The alternative is, "Sign me up for a commitment to better." Ship an update every day. Learn from what works, relentlessly improve what doesn't. The hard part about this path is…

Things that feel risky Often aren't. In fact, they might be the safest way forward.

Things that feel risky

Often aren't. In fact, they might be the safest way forward.

The next generation of AI businesses The first generation was built on large models, demonstrating what could be done and powering many tools. The second generation is focused on reducing costs and saving time. Replacing workers or making them more efficient. But you can't shrink your way to greatness. The third generation will be built on a simple premise, one that the internet has proven again and again:

The next generation of AI businesses

The first generation was built on large models, demonstrating what could be done and powering many tools. The second generation is focused on reducing costs and saving time. Replacing workers or making them more efficient. But you can't shrink your way to…

Tip for tap There is plenty of unintentional harm in our world. We've all been bruised or derailed by someone who had no ill intent. We often respond with intentional harm, to make a point and to teach a lesson. The alternative is clarity. Shared understanding instead of intentional pain. Tap is going to keep coming. It's the tip that's up to us.

Tip for tap

There is plenty of unintentional harm in our world. We've all been bruised or derailed by someone who had no ill intent. We often respond with intentional harm, to make a point and to teach a lesson. The alternative is clarity. Shared understanding instead of intentional pain. Tap is…

Time well spent What an admirable goal. Perhaps the overriding goal of all goals. How often do we measure this? Do we even know how? Do the systems we're in push us from considering this? I wonder why.

Time well spent

What an admirable goal. Perhaps the overriding goal of all goals. How often do we measure this? Do we even know how? Do the systems we're in push us from considering this? I wonder why.

A starting point for the blog The challenge of the library is the card catalog. If you don't know what you're looking for, it's hard to find much of anything. The challenge of the web is the search box, for the same reason. It's efficient once you're on a mission, but it requires you to go first. And the chat interface of Claude and ChatGPT is more of the same.

A starting point for the blog

The challenge of the library is the card catalog. If you don't know what you're looking for, it's hard to find much of anything. The challenge of the web is the search box, for the same reason. It's efficient once you're on a mission, but it requires you to go first.…

Process thinking Sure, you made it work this time, but will it work next time? Can you teach the method to someone else? Do you have a protocol for what to do when it doesn't work? How can someone else contribute to your process to make it better?

Process thinking

Sure, you made it work this time, but will it work next time? Can you teach the method to someone else? Do you have a protocol for what to do when it doesn't work? How can someone else contribute to your process to make it better?

Free agency Unrestricted free choice is a myth. There are always boundaries and trade-offs. But being fully stuck is also a myth. We might not like the trade offs, but we also have a choice. Since we always live in between, the work isn't waiting until we have free agency. The work is deciding and acting when we think that we don't.

Free agency

Unrestricted free choice is a myth. There are always boundaries and trade-offs. But being fully stuck is also a myth. We might not like the trade offs, but we also have a choice. Since we always live in between, the work isn't waiting until we have free agency. The work is deciding and…

Vessel size "May your cup runneth over..." This begs the question: how big a cup? The logistics of vessel size determine how much money we need to raise, how big a team we need, how many customers are necessary to break even. When we're on the hook to fill an Airbus transatlantic flight with passengers, the business is fundamentally different from a small commuter airline in Rhode Island.

Vessel size

"May your cup runneth over..." This begs the question: how big a cup? The logistics of vessel size determine how much money we need to raise, how big a team we need, how many customers are necessary to break even. When we're on the hook to fill an Airbus transatlantic flight with…

Voluntary stories The narrative we run in our head is a choice. It might or might not be based on objective reality and verified history. Doesn't matter, it's still a choice. There are millions of ways we can remind ourselves about the events of our lives and the systems we live in. But in this moment (and the next) we'll choose just one or two to rehearse and allow it to alter our decisions, outlook and interactions.

Voluntary stories

The narrative we run in our head is a choice. It might or might not be based on objective reality and verified history. Doesn't matter, it's still a choice. There are millions of ways we can remind ourselves about the events of our lives and the systems we live in. But in this…

Making it whole Integrity is the act of being in and of itself, from every angle. As we see the bait-and-switch of the online networks and monopolists, it's easy to imagine that nothing with integrity stays that way very long. The systems we support almost always end up trading a straightforward clarity about what they do for a facade that's easy to fall into and hard to get out of.

Making it whole

Integrity is the act of being in and of itself, from every angle. As we see the bait-and-switch of the online networks and monopolists, it's easy to imagine that nothing with integrity stays that way very long. The systems we support almost always end up trading a straightforward…

Sorting A surprising amount of our time is spent sorting things to create value. They sort the rotten cranberries from the good ones to ensure that the bag at the market is worth buying. And we sort the movies worth watching, the bargains worth pursuing and the news worth reading. Editors, gold miners and detectives are mostly in the sorting business.

Sorting

A surprising amount of our time is spent sorting things to create value. They sort the rotten cranberries from the good ones to ensure that the bag at the market is worth buying. And we sort the movies worth watching, the bargains worth pursuing and the news worth reading. Editors, gold…

“Everybody wants to win” Sports analogies often let us down. A colleague was explaining how measurement was difficult in many organizations, unlike a basketball game, where the time, the score and the stats are clear and obvious. He said, "everybody wants to win." Depending on how you define 'win', this is demonstrably untrue. It seems that among professional athletes, everyone does want to win, all things being equal.

“Everybody wants to win”

Sports analogies often let us down. A colleague was explaining how measurement was difficult in many organizations, unlike a basketball game, where the time, the score and the stats are clear and obvious. He said, "everybody wants to win." Depending on how you define…

Precision vs. accuracy Precision requires producing the same results each time. Repeatable, measurable, dependable. Accuracy means hitting the target. The only way to consistently be accurate is to be precise. But there are plenty of precision methods that don't yield the most desired outcomes. Simon Winchester's book on precision is magnificent. As we enter a new age of automation, understanding the thrills and costs of previous revolutions adds a useful perspective.

Precision vs. accuracy

Precision requires producing the same results each time. Repeatable, measurable, dependable. Accuracy means hitting the target. The only way to consistently be accurate is to be precise. But there are plenty of precision methods that don't yield the most desired outcomes.…

More trouble than it’s worth This is the hallmark of projects that turn out to be worth doing. The trouble might be a symptom that we're onto something that others don't care enough to do. And the things that are obviously worth doing are probably already being done.

More trouble than it’s worth

This is the hallmark of projects that turn out to be worth doing. The trouble might be a symptom that we're onto something that others don't care enough to do. And the things that are obviously worth doing are probably already being done.

The infinite tail The Long Tail was a profound cultural insight. When we created YouTube, Amazon, Roon, recipe websites and Netflix, the culture changed. When you give people a choice, they make a choice. We went from the Top 40 to millions of songs. From Blockbuster to every movie ever made. From the local bookstore to all the books, all the time. Pick what you want instead of what other people picked.

The infinite tail

The Long Tail was a profound cultural insight. When we created YouTube, Amazon, Roon, recipe websites and Netflix, the culture changed. When you give people a choice, they make a choice. We went from the Top 40 to millions of songs. From Blockbuster to every movie ever made. From…

AI ads are neither Neither AI nor ads. The problem started with search, and was weaponized by Amazon. Display ads go back at least 100 years. A century ago, the idea was simple: Show up in a place where people are offering up attention and tell a story. The advertiser pays the media for the attention they're using, and the consumer may find interest, amusement or, at the very least, tolerance for the fact that the media cost them less than it would without the ads.

AI ads are neither

Neither AI nor ads. The problem started with search, and was weaponized by Amazon. Display ads go back at least 100 years. A century ago, the idea was simple: Show up in a place where people are offering up attention and tell a story. The advertiser pays the media for the…

Skepticism, surprise and resistance Every important medical innovation of the last five hundred years has been ridiculed, undermined and ignored by doctors and the medical establishment. Every single one. Hand-washing, antibiotics, and the dangers of smoking, just to pick a few. This happens in any system where expertise is valued and where change might be risky. Just because the establishment doesn't like it doesn't mean it's not a good idea. (On the other hand, there are plenty of bad ideas the establishment doesn't like as well).

Skepticism, surprise and resistance

Every important medical innovation of the last five hundred years has been ridiculed, undermined and ignored by doctors and the medical establishment. Every single one. Hand-washing, antibiotics, and the dangers of smoking, just to pick a few. This happens in…

On the hiring line There have always been two sides: Hiring people to do tasks and jobs, or hoping to be hired to do those tasks and jobs. The difference now is that it's increasingly difficult to find a good job to get hired for, and easier than ever to be the person who hires an AI or a person to do a task.

On the hiring line

There have always been two sides: Hiring people to do tasks and jobs, or hoping to be hired to do those tasks and jobs. The difference now is that it's increasingly difficult to find a good job to get hired for, and easier than ever to be the person who hires an AI or a person…

Insulation > power When energy is cheap, people build buildings that are poorly insulated. It's faster and cheaper in the short run. In the long run, though, insulation always wins. You invest in it once and get the rewards forever. And of course, this is true for all things, not just buildings. Learning to do it right is cheaper than using effort to overcome our laziness every single time.

Insulation > power

When energy is cheap, people build buildings that are poorly insulated. It's faster and cheaper in the short run. In the long run, though, insulation always wins. You invest in it once and get the rewards forever. And of course, this is true for all things, not just buildings.…

Terrible Most of us are terrible at some things. Lack of skill, focus, practice, care or just temperament means that we don't do the task as well as we might. This might be anything from promptness to conflict to high-stakes negotiation. It could include filling in forms, taking notes or brainstorming innovative ideas. Perhaps it's living with uncertainty... Once you realize your areas of terrible, choices arise:

Terrible

Most of us are terrible at some things. Lack of skill, focus, practice, care or just temperament means that we don't do the task as well as we might. This might be anything from promptness to conflict to high-stakes negotiation. It could include filling in forms, taking notes or…

In defense of popups One friend recently opened a bookstore instead of a bookmobile. Another is investing two years of his life to open a restaurant instead of a series of pop up dinners. And a third is buying a boat instead of chartering one. It's easy to see why. A real bookstore has a lease. They post their hours. It's solid. And a real restaurant, the kind we've all been to, looks, feels and smells like a restaurant.

In defense of popups

One friend recently opened a bookstore instead of a bookmobile. Another is investing two years of his life to open a restaurant instead of a series of pop up dinners. And a third is buying a boat instead of chartering one. It's easy to see why. A real bookstore has a lease.…

A better mousetrap That's easy advice and a fine goal. Except... if you look at the last hundred years, we haven't seen many useful advances in mousetraps, despite the number of people who have tried. It feels like an infinite market, so it attracts a lot of entrants. You probably won't come up with a better mousetrap. But you might find the empathy and focus to find a small group of people with a more specific problem and solve it for them in a way that earns you trust, traction and word of mouth. That's enough.

A better mousetrap

That's easy advice and a fine goal. Except... if you look at the last hundred years, we haven't seen many useful advances in mousetraps, despite the number of people who have tried. It feels like an infinite market, so it attracts a lot of entrants. You probably won't come up…

Bent incentives Who is Nicole Bennet and why does she keep calling me? A few times a day, a voice pretending to be someone named Nicole rings my cell, and in a petulant, entitled voice, insists she's calling me about a loan that I never applied for. I've never interacted, I block each number, but the calls keep coming. AT&T certainly has the technology to block calls like this, but they don't have an incentive to do so.

Bent incentives

Who is Nicole Bennet and why does she keep calling me? A few times a day, a voice pretending to be someone named Nicole rings my cell, and in a petulant, entitled voice, insists she's calling me about a loan that I never applied for. I've never interacted, I block each number, but…

The big splash 52 years ago, Apple's 1984 ad ran on the Super Bowl. Once. It's generally considered the most effective ad of its kind, creating a legend and also a trap. Was this ad the reason the Mac is still around? Or was it Regis McKenna's work in getting Steve on the cover of more than 20 magazines the month it launched?

The big splash

52 years ago, Apple's 1984 ad ran on the Super Bowl. Once. It's generally considered the most effective ad of its kind, creating a legend and also a trap. Was this ad the reason the Mac is still around? Or was it Regis McKenna's work in getting Steve on the cover of more than 20…

Identity violation and pricing Why do books and records have standard pricing? You'd think that a record from Miles Davis or Patricia Barber would cost more than one from the local garage band. Economists tie themselves into knots trying to explain why wine and handbags have such wide price variation, but tickets to movies do not. They invoke "credence goods" and "focal point coordination" and "transaction utility" and "cost disease." Darby, Karni, Schelling, Baumol, Thaler—a parade of Nobel-adjacent thinkers building elegant models to explain what's sitting right in front of them.

Identity violation and pricing

Why do books and records have standard pricing? You'd think that a record from Miles Davis or Patricia Barber would cost more than one from the local garage band. Economists tie themselves into knots trying to explain why wine and handbags have such wide price…

The empathy of instructions It's difficult to write directions. A user interface, a map or a recipe all require empathy. That's because the person writing it knows something the reader doesn't. In fact, that's the only reason to do it. But because instructions exist to bridge this gap, we benefit by understanding and focusing on the gap. The instructions aren't there to remind you…

The empathy of instructions

It's difficult to write directions. A user interface, a map or a recipe all require empathy. That's because the person writing it knows something the reader doesn't. In fact, that's the only reason to do it. But because instructions exist to bridge this gap, we benefit…

On the wall We are story-processing creatures, and the most effective stories are often embodied in people. Living examples of the lesson we're trying to learn and the posture we hope to model. Heroes, mentors, martyrs, examples, icons, avatars, archetypes, and even villains. Sometimes those people are fictional, living in an anecdote and refined to form a legend. The leverage of media, though, has made history more powerful than any made-up story ever could be.

On the wall

We are story-processing creatures, and the most effective stories are often embodied in people. Living examples of the lesson we're trying to learn and the posture we hope to model. Heroes, mentors, martyrs, examples, icons, avatars, archetypes, and even villains. Sometimes those…

Fake news and trust Celebrity gossip, fortune-telling and superstitions are the original forms of fake news, but now it's increasingly widespread. In every field from science to world affairs, it's troubling to see. People who are familiar with reality can't understand why it's popular--in a low-trust world, why would people engage with made-up noise disguised as information? The irony is that it's easier to trust fake news.

Fake news and trust

Celebrity gossip, fortune-telling and superstitions are the original forms of fake news, but now it's increasingly widespread. In every field from science to world affairs, it's troubling to see. People who are familiar with reality can't understand why it's popular--in a…