@mertkartal.bsky.social
* Associate Prof. of Political Science, St. Lawrence University * Good Authority Fellow * Transparency International Consultant * International organization; the EU; good governance, corruption, populism in Europe, and a bit of Turkey * 💛💙Fenerbahçe💛💙
I spoke to Martin Di Caro at History As It Happens about Iran, Turkey, Israel and a new Middle East.
Enjoy!
historyasithappens.supercast.com/subscriber_v...
Continued efforts to channel #EU support for #Ukraine thru bilateral aid & coalitions of the willing!
That’d bypass #Hungary’s veto & push #Orbán further into a corner prior to the April election. The EU will likely wait for the election result to decide how much, if at all, to yield to his threats.
AI is changing how we work, but maybe not as fast as we think. This paper shows that actual AI use at work is still well below what it could theoretically do: www.anthropic.com/research/lab...
But even now, the most exposed jobs tend to be older, female, more educated, and higher-paid.
Same here. Probably not healthy, but it feels so nice at times. 🙂
Apparently, this is where I am in life: My advised gets into a top MA program in international relations with full funding, and I become absurdly emotional. #proudprofessor #definitelynotcrying
My latest piece on Turkey and the Iran war:
1️⃣ NATO intercepted a second Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace. Ankara warned Tehran, while Iranian officials denied responsibility and said they respect Turkish sovereignty. But Iran’s so-called “mosaic defense” strategy, 1/4
Coming from Germany, this “warning” is not trivial. It does carry real symbolic (and possibly some political) significance. But enough to change Israel’s policy? Probably not.
Very pleased to share a new Good Authority piece I wrote with @emmabirkitt.bsky.social, my former student & now a JD candidate at @cornelllaw.bsky.social. We examine the EU’s new #anti-corruption directive & explain why broader rules on paper may still prove difficult to enforce across #EU members.
Clearly, this isn’t a top-tier global award. But it’s meaningful in the European local-democracy space. It has symbolic importance. Whether it’ll carry any weight for İmamoğlu is, at best, highly doubtful. He’s facing 2,300 years in prison, and his trial begins on Monday: www.hrw.org/news/2026/03...
Ipsos:
-Americans are slightly opposed to US strikes on Iran.
-Support could rise with clear gains like ending Iran’s nuclear program.
-Broader war, US casualties, higher gas prices could decrease support.
-No strong “rally around the flag” effect has emerged.
www.ipsos.com/en-us/early-...
US Treasury Secretary says because of a temporary global oil supply shortfall, the US may consider lifting sanctions on some Russian oil.
Had a grim thought last night: post-9/11 there was a massive surge of interest and scholarship on Islam. Yes, there was a lot of tendentious trash, and bigotry, and the motives were in many cases instrumental--but there was also a lot of real learning and research.
❗️NATO air and missile defense forces in the Eastern Mediterranean intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that crossed Iraqi and Syrian airspace before entering Turkish airspace, Turkey's Defense Ministry said. Debris fell in Hatay province with no casualties. #NATO
Spoiler alert: The BBC’s answer is “divergent national interests.”
Still, even with differing interests, the EU could act more consistently. The real constraint is institutional design. Unanimity rules make a coherent foreign policy extremely difficult on major issues.
bbc.com/news/article...
Polymarket numbers can change dramatically in just minutes. So they are not necessarily very reliable.
But Orbán’s decision to ban the site probably says more about the current situation (and the likely election outcome) than the odds themselves.
Not even Hungary or Slovakia!
I have so many questions: Is there a social/political “glue” strong enough to hold Iranians together and avoid civil conflict scenarios? Could members of the Revolutionary Guards support a peaceful transfer of power (maybe with outside coordination? What happens if Pahlavi returns to Iran?
In my non-expert view, peaceful transition of power is essential for stability in conflict-struck countries and their neighbors. And it is rarely straightforward.
Iran and its neighbors probably have a very difficult road ahead.
🚨 BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran, according to President Donald Trump.
🔗 www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
Side effect of the U.S.'s tariffs and annexation rhetoric around Greenland: Iceland, which withdrew its EU membership application a decade ago, is now discussing fast-tracking a referendum on membership.
If Icelanders say yes (still a big if), it could join before any existing EU candidate state.
Measuring corruption is important – but also difficult.
As the latest corruption rankings make global headlines, here’s what these indices can and cannot measure.
Read from @mertkartal.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/why-mea...
In a reciprocal move, Iran has declared all EU naval and air forces terrorist organizations: borna.news/en/amp/news/...
The US–Iran standoff has now widened to the entire EU.
Countries like #Hungary and #Serbia all score considerably better, which is very tellling.
Turkey now ranks the same as #Belarus and #Uzbekistan, which also is very telling.
These cross-country differences and long-term trends are difficult to ignore.
When using @anticorruption.bsky.social's #Corruption Perceptions Index, #CPI, compare countries in the same year. Long-term trends (vs. year-to-year changes) also matter.
Well, Turkey looks alarming. In 2013, it ranked better than seven #EU members. Today, it is below all EU members & candidates.
🇵🇹 PORTUGAL | Elecciones presidenciales - 2ª vuelta (81,4 % de freguesías escrutadas)
🟥 Seguro (PS) 64,3 %
⬛️ Ventura (Chega) 35,7 %
El socialista António José Seguro será el próximo presidente de la República de Portugal.
When center-right chases far-right, it backfires. When voters choose between far-right and a copy, they pick the original. Imitating far-right only makes it stronger.
Portugal shows how mainstream parties can defend democracy: The center-right backs the center-left instead of drifting further right.
Istanbul, ouch!
Calling this “affordable rent” requires a very generous definition of affordability.
Source: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Ill write a longer post on this later, but I largely agree. I teach at a small liberal arts college and I very much would like to see my daughter go to one if she can.
It's finally happening.
The Swedish prime minister just announced that a pan-European force is arriving in #Greenland as we speak.
No word yet on whether UK forces are among them.
Rutte is the Secretary General of NATO, not the PM of the Netherlands. Expecting him (or NATO under him) to publicly challenge the United States in that role is unrealistic (unless he has already decided to step down).