Ariel Edwards-Levy

never once in my life have I wanted a space after paragraph

i'm disappointed in all of you

tremendous content, etc

Anyway, as is often the case, the first step toward thinking about public opinion here without sending yourself down a rabbit hole is accepting that there isn't a "true" measurement where every person is on a binary of either supporting or rejecting violence and you can measure which side.

(Also I do not know what happened with my attempts at tagging people there!)

This topic takes a lot of the edge cases where gauging public opinion is particularly tricky -- views held by very small but consequential shares of the public, topics subject to partisan cheerleading, measuring support for hypothetical action -- and basically wraps them up with a bow.

Some thoughtful recent work on measuring support for political violence from @gelliottmorris.com, Nate Cohn, @lilymasonphd.bsky.social and @nathankalmoe.bsky.social

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/u...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/9blbj...

"in the news OR in advertisements" really doing a lot of work there

oh look, it's my least favorite question structure

have just encountered possibly the bravest individual in the universe: a person whose email signature contains the phrase "I will return all calls & emails within 24 hours"

such is the lot of the Swift vote veteran for truth

Trump deploying National Guard to U.S. cities is not popular — its support level matches his (underwater) job approval rating

Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure

Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Some of the same folks who will put a IN THIS HOUSE WE BELIEVE IN SCIENCE sign on their lawn will also act like utter jerks to anyone making a descriptive point that doesn't immediately further their normative priors.

expressive responding: it's for elites, too!

21. (If professional football super fan, fan or casual fan q17) The tush push is a football play typically used on very short yardage. The quarterback pushes forward with the ball while his teammates push him from behind. Do you think this play should be allowed in professional football or should be banned from the game?

I'm excited for the public opinion researcher 50 years from now who's going to crack open the ol' Roper poll archives and find this question explaining to respondents what a "tush push" is

poll.qu.edu/poll-release... (poll is of adults in PA)

well, maybe "beautiful" is not the right word

(the author proposes "animated by questions they want to pose" as the better alternative, which it is, but I also think genuine enthusiasm can take you pretty far)

His mode is that of the popularizer, an expert tasked with taking a topic he has already grasped, chewing it into a pap and spitting it into the mouths of lowly amateurs, his readers.

oh, this is a beautiful description of a certain tone that gets under my skin with explainers

(via wapo.st/46TNpWq)

A menu offering "wings" with the custom option of "don't make."

options Daedalus regrets not ordering

Great news for IVR pollsters.

can tell this isn't an actual press release because it's not credited to "Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University"

This week on Substack, I have seen takes that argue that we should replace public opinion research with anything from prediction markets to oracles who know what motivates the base.

Do you all know what this business was like before pollsters?

frample same

i refuse to understand "pollingism" to refer to anything else besides the use of survey industry jargon (frugging! sugging! CATI! nonprob!)

NEW

Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling

More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently

"Extreme" top descriptor for GOP

"Weak" top descriptor for Democrats

www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

no but I was once a small child who toted round a copy of D'Aulaires through most of second grade

toasted extra

instead

A menu offering "wings" with the custom option of "don't make."

options Daedalus regrets not ordering

something something brandom forest

Polling small groups of people like Jewish Americans is always a difficult task - great to see methodologically careful work devoted to it

🎉

we love a poll that's transparent about its methodology