Ariel Edwards-Levy

Some context: in Gallup's polling, support for the Iraq War was never lower than 41% until mid-2005, over two years into the war. (Source: news.gallup.com/poll/1633/ir...)

unfortunately this is my natural state

you better watch out,
you better not cry
be better, you grout
I'm telling you why

one must imagine a rehabilitated grout pad renouncing its hooliganism and settling down to full-time employment and sobriety

Poll: Majority of voters disapproves of how Trump has handled Iran Most independents say the U.S. should not have taken military action, along with a slice of Republicans, according to a national NBC News poll.

New @nbcnews.com poll

On what Americans think about Trump’s handling of Iran:

• 41% approve
• 54% disapprove
• 3% no opinion
• 2% not sure

Should the U.S. have taken military action against Iran?

• 41% say yes
• 52% say no
• 7% not sure

www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...

Would you describe the color of the sea as:

1. White
2. Black
3. Wine-dark
4. Other (please specify, we really need more words for colors)

(anyway, all of this save the survey format is outside my experience but presumably a perfectly normal discussion for farriers. i find the details of what other people do for a living fascinating! which is also why I like what I do for a living)

more like a-poll-o' people, amirite

When faced with no hoof growth in a healthy foot, what do you do? I don't touch the foot I clean up the chips and cracks, but don't take anything from the foot. I clean up the foot and address any indications of deformation. I trim as much foot as I can.

i trim as much foot as I can

whoa

honestly, this would be a banger of a trap question

Do you provide hoof care for at least one cloned horse?

?????????????

Which does makes sense to me in that I think the partisan cues on this are a lot easier to pick up on the Dem side even for the low attention group

Sample sizes for some groups start getting a bit low, but broadly:
-Across attn levels, GOP/lean substantially likelier than Dem/lean to say they don't know
-Among GOP/lean, those not paying close attn about ~13 pts likelier than those who are to pick DK
-That gap narrows to ~4 pts among Dems

Poll: Handling Hoof-Care Clients Who Refuse To Pay How do you handle hoof-care clients who refuse to pay after you provide your services? Pursue all legal avenues to successfully collect the outstanding balance. Send a collection letter requesting payment and hope they pay. If they do, great. If they don’t, I let it go. Confront the client and request payment. If the client refuses to pay, I repossess the shoes. After trying to collect, I let it go because it’s not worth my time to chase an outstanding balance, particularly when it’s a relatively small amount.

more survey response options should include the phrase "If the client refuses to pay, I repossess the shoes."

(via www.americanfarriers.com/articles/105...)

I also find the range of DKs between questions interesting. Share who say they're not sure:
If US made enough diplomatic effort 33%
If US should send ground troops into Iran 28%
If further action requires Cong. approval 16%
If long-term conflict is likely 13%

Did the US make enough of an effort at diplomacy with Iran before using military force, or not?

Would you favor or oppose the US sending ground troops into Iran?

Do you think Trump should or should not be required to get congressional approval for any further military action in Iran?

Do you think a long-term military conflict between the US and Iran is:

And looking at some of the questions with explicit DK:

The attention crosstabs in our Iran poll are kind of interesting measurement of how attention corresponds to strength of opinion/likelihood of choosing DK when offered

Those following more closely are 26 pts likelier than those not to express strong opinion

www.documentcloud.org/documents/27...

"It's a snapshot not a prediction—and they get blurry if things are moving"

Surveys using address-based samples, for instance, tend to get higher response rates, but anything that involves physically mailing things to people is inherently going to take a while. There's always some degree of trade-off.

To be persnickety: longer field dates can have problematic implications specifically for election polls if there's movement in the race.

By contrast, long field periods can be helpful for benchmarking, broader political surveys, etc. where attitudes are stable and higher coverage is more important.

due to a fortuitous typo, leading candidates below 50% instead forced into a pun-off

Some very well-timed polling that finds little evidence of a shift on Iran after the US took military action:

do brewers have a speaking group called oastmasters

I hope they give them little seasonal outfits

CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say | CNN Politics The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran and the Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish lea...

NEW: The CIA has been working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN.
www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/p...

are you saying I jumpscared the shark

the first meeting of the shark coterie board

Donald Trump once warned ‘lives will be wasted’ in Iran war. Now he’s leading one | CNN Politics As US forces carry out bombing operations inside Iran, President Donald Trump and several of his top national security officials are now presiding over a war they once warned would be costly, destabil...

NEW: In audio clips from 2011 and 2012, Trump repeatedly warned war with Iran would be politically motivated, strategically unnecessary and lead to casualties. "Lives will be wasted for no reason," Trump said, arguing -- baselessly -- that Obama was going to bomb Iran.

www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/p...

my only counterargument is "DST!!!" but this is otherwise convincingly argued