Ariel Edwards-Levy

I am from Los Angeles and basically every February I have cause to re-examine my life decisions

I think complicated people are fascinating and I am absolutely not one of them

we built a fundamentals-based forecast model to gauge my general mood using only the variable of "is it nice out" and it's 90% predictive

my answer to this recently is uniqlo, ymmv depending on whether you are, like me, very short

feel like I've definitely seen the tech tree version of this but mostly I'm seizing upon it as a tenuous way to once again mention my abiding fondness for sid meier's alpha centauri

(just looked it up and canonically, deidre skye is currently about two months old)

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...

while I grudgingly accept that not everything can be a verse of Chad Gadya, "then came the bird that dropped the fish that ignited the wire that started the brushfire that the firefighters quenched in Ashcroft B.C. which is 67 km west of Kamloops" is a verse of Chad Gadya

also entirely possible he ate the goat, from the look of things

e.g. the ideal is that no matter what the job market happens to look like in your sector or your community, you can turn to independent and rigorous government data to give you a fuller picture of what it looks like in places you're not personally familiar with. (Even if they didn't ask you!)

I know the 1984 quote is going around but I feel like the bigger issue of the moment is that we live in a large, heterogenous society facing extremely complex and nuanced challenges, and it's actually essential to have trusted sources for info that's *not* readily evident to your own eyes and ears.

while I grudgingly accept that not everything can be a verse of Chad Gadya, "then came the bird that dropped the fish that ignited the wire that started the brushfire that the firefighters quenched in Ashcroft B.C. which is 67 km west of Kamloops" is a verse of Chad Gadya

This would be difficult to measure for obvious reasons, but given recent industry discussions around social trust and the way survey invites work, I would be *fascinated* to know more about the relationship between response propensity and experience with these sorts of scams

what if The Dress but instead one version is blue and black and the other is just demanding that it actually doesn't exist

“It’s outrageous for anyone in government to question the integrity of the BLS,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former Obama economic adviser. “Accurate statistics are essential to the economy.” Furman doubted that replacing McEntarfer would compromise the BLS, but he said even the possibility or appearance of that notion “would be bad.” “Countries that have tried to fake those statistics have often ended up with economic crisis as a result,” Furman said.

www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/b...

Trump says he’s directing team to ‘immediately’ fire senior official over jobs numbers | CNN Business President Donald Trump is directing his team to “immediately” fire Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whom he accused of manipulating the monthly jobs reports fo...

"If you don't like the message, fire the messenger. That's what this has become," Jeff Zeleny says on CNN www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/b...

at the risk of a hot take, I believe it is per se a good thing to gather quantitative data, as accurately as possible, to help the public better understand the contours of the world and society we live in

This is so sad.

Best of luck with whatever is next!

in the newest post on the CES blog, Caroline Soler digs in to the question of what is the best approach for identifying Evangelicals in surveys sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...

usually when I apologize for posts I don't mean it but in this case I do

gregor mendel has pea genes

thunderstorm wondering whether you think a messy bun would make it look less severe

"the end is Nigel"

afraid this will only encourage me to be increasingly Like This, but thank you!

a troubling sign for international Norms

possibly revealing of which group I'm in that I just spent five minutes considering and discarding various jokes about acquiring the heart of a poster

Odysseus The Editor unable to take buyout because he has been tied to masthead

this is a terrible question format and should at least have a middle option and parallel items but survey research wasn't as advanced in the Victorian Era

for each of the following, please say whether it would make you (more) or (less) likely to request additional gruel:

(RANDOMIZE ITEMS)

a. never before has a boy wanted more
b. knowing what's in store
c. there's a dark, thin winding staircase without any banister

e.g.