Ariel Edwards-Levy

this is the anniversary edition

i hate the certain knowledge of how much I would listen to this

they will see us wuther from such great heights

warming trend?? honestly this sounds fine

cloudy with a chance of rhombus

a cloud egesting a blue raindrop, a gray asterisk and a gray...diamond?

precipitation shapes are getting out of hand imo

all his base can belong to you

well, I can certainly claim one of these attributes

I moved away before they renamed all the color* lines to letters and now I refuse to learn what any of the letters mean

*"Expo" is a color

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll this month found 54% of Americans oppose / 23% support the federal government taking over election administration and vote counting in certain states, with 23% offering no opinion on the idea Trump floated recently docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Trust in Trump’s decision making on the use of military force overseas is low - AP-NORC Fifty-six percent of the public has little or no trust in Trump’s judgment regarding the use of military force overseas. Still, 80% continue to be at least moderately concerned about the direct threat...

56% of Americans express little or no trust in Trump's ability to handle relations with U.S. allies, and 55% lack confidence in how he deals with U.S. adversaries. apnorc.org/projects/tru...

as a person who has not infrequently bolted awake at night out of fear of having accidentally transposed a number, it is really wild to me the extent to which people often just say things

missed opportunity to embrace the 2000s vibes and just go for "household e-panel research"

this a) looks like a fantastic program and b) has gotta score real high on the "coolness of acronym to coolness of words used to construct the acronym" ratio

Good marks from speech-watchers are typical for presidential addresses to Congress, which tend to attract generally friendly audiences that disproportionately align with presidents’ own parties. In CNN’s speech reaction polls, which have been conducted most years dating back to the Clinton era, audience reactions have always been positive.

We also make this point (as we do every year!) in our digital write.

www.cnn.com/2026/02/25/p...

The vast conspiracy of "accurately contextualizing data"

www.theblaze.com/news/cnn-pol...

I MEANT WHO DID THE POLL, I shout at the gnarled paw

whole thread here, but to borrow my summation:

*Be specific when citing poll data
*Look for surveys that are transparent about methodology and wording
*Think critically about what would need to be true for a stat to make sense IRL (e.g. it is hard to find 90% of anyone doing anything)

if there's peanut butter, it's Skippy logic

I'm still a little cranky about this one bsky.app/profile/aedw...

When you tell yourself "I'll just have one" that's sampling bias

why am I less concerned about the zombie president than about the non-mutually-exclusive survey response options

Off the top of my head, Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney in the post-J6 era

when you walk past the chips for the fifth time, give up, and snag a bag, that's snackquiescence bias

John Fetterman joins the small and idiosyncratic list of "politicians with higher approval ratings among the opposing party."

poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

THE DOGHOUSE DAYS OF SUMMERS

heino....you're an all-star

it's me, secret admirer FIRSTNAME LASTNAME; you will never guess my identity

truly, who knows where life takes us

the most baffling thing about adulthood is that I have become a person who signs my emails "Best," and frequently says "have a good one"