Esma Ozer

Skilled immigration on the chopping block? Effects of eliminating "Optional Practical Training" in the US The White House has taken numerous steps to sharply reduce the number of immigrant workers, with or without legal status, in the US economy. These policies, so far, typically target immigrants with le...

They're terminating OPT.

Today the nominee to head USCIS stated directly: he will end Optional Practical Training, the single largest channel for high-skill immigrants to work in the US.

6 weeks ago I warned about this & summarized the research on impacts of this drastic action—> @piie.com

Excited to present at the Advances with Field Experiments (AFE) 2025 Conference in September!! Grateful to @johnlist.bsky.social and @rmetcalfe.bsky.social for organizing such a great event.

What do multiple-choice tests really measure? We explore this in a new @nber.org paper with Kala Krishna & @esmaozer.bsky.social We find time pressure affects sorting—and impacts men and women differently. More in my chat with @tvhe.substack.com
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/2KXvuD6...

Pelin Akyol schools me on testing How should we design multi-choice tests?

For a deeper dive, my co-author Pelin Akyol breaks down the approach, findings, and implications of our study in this podcast episode with Matt Nolan:
tvhe.substack.com/p/pelin-akyo...

Our counterfactuals show: optimal exam design depends on which part of the ability distribution you care about. Time limits matter.

Also: sorting within gender may better reflect true ability—due to differences in signal production.

We model signal quality as a function of ability, question difficulty, and time constraints. The estimation reveals: gender differences aren’t due to risk preferences. They come from differences in how signals are produced under time pressure.

To understand these patterns—especially the gender gap—we estimate a structural model of how students approach multiple-choice questions. Students receive noisy signals for each option. If no option stands out enough, they skip. Skipping is shaped by confidence and risk aversion.

The results? Three big takeaways:

1. More time = higher scores & less skipping (unsurprising)
2. Effects are concentrated in “within reach” questions—low performers gain on easy Qs, high performers on hard Qs
3. Score gains are larger for males, driven by greater reductions in skipping. 🤔

Motivated by the non-monotonic findings of a natural experiment in Türkiye (which reduced time pressure in a national exam), we designed our own experiment: a multiple choice test with negative marking and differential time limits, administered to high school students.

Time-constrained choices are everywhere—exams, contests, tasks at work. But how much do time limits really matter?

This project began as my third-year paper—and my first time running an experiment. It's now an NBER WP joint with Kala Krishna & Pelin Akyol. 🧵

I'm going to go with "too much"

it looks like structural econ people have trained gpt4 well.

YouTube video by Center for Effective Global Action CEGA | New insights and tools to improve lives

Hello from CEGA!

We generate rigorous research on global poverty, using innovative data, methods, and partnerships, to improve the lives of millions.

We also provide policymakers & funders cost-effective strategies to scale evidence-backed solutions for development.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fps...

I wrote about how you can streamline your workflow using VS Code—check it out here: esmaozer.github.io/resources/al...