Tom Crowley

Here’s the damage

New figures show only one in five millennials voted for the Coalition in 2025 As Liberals prepare to fly to Canberra to hash out their net zero stance, results from the Australian Election Study suggest those under 45 have continued to drift away from the Coalition.

The millennial disdain for the Coalition got even worse in 2025, according to the first glimpse of the Australian election study.

A primary of 21 and a 2PP of 64-36 is an “existential” problem as the party debates net zero, says Simon Jackman.

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...

The constitution might be the first obstacle. Do you see a way around it when the federal government lacks a housing power?

The PM wants to build homes like the one he grew up in. These days, it's harder It takes a long time to build anything at all in Australia's dysfunctional housing market, even for the federal government, but Labor's social housing fund is inching towards an impact.

Going in deep on the troubled HAFF. It will shake the tag that it hasn’t built any new homes (from scratch) eventually. But it’ll still be an excruciating process, like building anything in Australia.

Loads of never-before-seen detail to chew on:
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...

More details this morning from Treasury’s briefing headings, including the full set on housing for you to read for yourself. Among the opportunities identified: reviewing Commonwealth Rent Assistance
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07...

Treasury advises Labor to consider higher taxes and a new housing target A series of subheadings accidentally sent to the ABC by Treasury reveals extensive detail about its frank advice to the re-elected Albanese government.

A rare insight into what Treasury really thinks, all thanks to an email mishap.

Raise taxes and cut spending if you want to fix the budget. Your housing target won’t be met. And be prepared for a US dollar crisis.

My report with Dan Ziffer:
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07...

*does not want the tax liability to be paid

You've framed as 'they'll pay less to the media companies' which, sure if you want to frame it that way. But the govt's thinking went the other way around - make the tax 10% bigger to steer companies into making their own arrangements to dispel the liability.

Yes it is what you're talking about - sorry to go round in circles but that's exactly what I'm saying. The reason tax has been set at $11m is to encourage a deal of $10m. Govt does want the tax liability to be paid, so deliberately set the rates at a level that was not 1:1.

Yep the uplift is the bit I'm talking about (and is alluded to in the linked article) - it is a design feature because the govt's preference is that deals be struck directly with the media orgs rather than the govt having to collect revenue and dole it out

Facebook, Google to fund Australian journalism under new tax plan The government wants to impose a new tax to push the tech platforms to make funding agreements with news organisations.

Not new - was front and centre of the briefing when the plan was first announced and it’s the whole point. The govt expects the tax to raise not a cent, because it’s to be set high enough that it’s cheaper to pay media orgs.
www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12...

Jim Chalmers wants to pick a fight on tax — and time is of the essence There was no mistaking the impression that the treasurer is emboldened by the election result and wants to seize his moment.

It’s no small thing that the treasurer sees a window of opportunity to reform tax, and there is no shortage of problems he could fix. But he must be willing to create losers, and that’s always been the hard part. My analysis for your Saturday morning.

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06...

I’m thinking of getting involved in some discords, are there good ones floating around? I vaguely recall some being mentioned in these circles.

Liberals to shift housing focus from buyer incentives and urban sprawl Andrew Bragg also promises a focus on small businesses and private sector investment in his newly created productivity and deregulation shadow portfolios.

A number of markers laid by Bragg in his interview with me, which you can both read and watch here. A very substantial shift underway on housing and a quiet but firm rinsing of the Sukkar strategy.
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05...

The plural is normans swan

Liberals on brink of near-total wipe-out in Australia's suburbs The election result is a tale of two cities — Labor has picked up healthy swings on first preferences in affluent areas but there are signs of discontent in the outer suburbs.

A close look at the suburban results. In mid-affluent areas, massive primary swings towards Labor, not just where they won but in Cook, Mitchell, Berowra. In outer suburban areas, Dutton's all-consuming obsession, third party splintering did not help him a jot.
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05...

This was a real pleasure!

Here's the state of play in dozens of seats that could decide the election While there is broad agreement that Peter Dutton has a narrower path to victory than Anthony Albanese, campaigners are bracing for the unexpected.

Updates on about 60 seats here with sentiment from across the camps. The baseline expectation is a moderate Labor loss in Victoria and a wash elsewhere.

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...

How Dutton's work-from-home crackdown came undone Jane Hume joked that the private sector might follow the Liberals in cracking down on work from home, but the party ran into trouble when voters came to fear the same.

The list of seats where work from home is likely to be most prevalent reads like a shopping list of marginals

My anatomy of a backflip:
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...

Nice chart from Macrobond putting tomorrow's tariffs in historical perspective. Eight decades worth of trade liberalisation efforts already binned by Trump.

My take from last night’s budget coverage on the fiscal big picture after a full term of Labor budgets.

Is this one those marginal seat Redbridge things? Or national

Treasury came armed with a warning. Politicians dragged them into the mud Frank and fearless advice about how Australia should navigate Trump's tariffs was lost in the din of election season.

Suffice it to say I was less than impressed by the tone of estimates this week, even by estimates standards. So I wrote about it.
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03...

Not much but suspect neither would see much to gain from that? Bigger audiences where they are. Both have probably done the requisite qanda panel

I'd suggest a few influencer types with large followings. Hannah Ferguson, Konrad Benjamin, Jordan Shanks (each very different categories of left)

A fix to the housing crisis could be close. Can politics deliver it? However desperate the situation might seem, cities around the world have shown that a housing crisis can be solved quickly with sufficient political will.

My contribution to the ABC’s series Untangling the Housing Crisis is an examination of the hard evidence. A solution is not as far away as many think.
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02...

Solid haul at the Lifeline Book Fair

Technodeudalism 🤟🏽

🤨

Struggling to summon them to mind now but I agree it’s not new, I’m just curious about its political character. Feel certain that if you did a poll of Putricia stans you’d find an enormous left skew, but I can’t tell myself any story about why that is that makes sense.