Vnssa HC

🧵 10/10
Distinction remains the soul of IHL (Additional Protocol I) Without it, drones don’t democratize security—they democratize atrocity

We either regulate lethal autonomy now, or the next decade of war will be fought by machines that cost less than your iPhone

🧵 9/10
Bigger picture: Cheap lethal tech erodes every arms-control regime we built in the 20th century. When anyone can field an air force for the price of a used car, deterrence collapses and endless war becomes the default setting

🧵 8/10
Future scenarios:
2026 CCW breakthrough → meaningful human control required
OR
Unregulated swarm race → first-strike incentives worse than nuclear MAD, because the barrier to use is near zero

🧵 7/10
Human cost: 943 civilian deaths directly attributed to drone strikes 2021-2024 (Death on Delivery report).

UN SecGen called for a global ban in May 2025. 161 states voted for negotiations; US, Russia, Israel and China still blocking consensus

🧵 6/10
Legal minefield: Additional Protocol I (Art. 35 + 51) bans indiscriminate weapons and requires distinction & proportionality. Fully autonomous “slaughterbots” fail both tests. CCW talks on lethal AWS have dragged since 2014 with zero binding outcome

🧵 5/10
Strategic revolution: Tanks are becoming metal coffins. The US military now treats drones as “consumables” like bullets. Lesson from Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 still ignored by many Western armies: if you can be seen, you die

🧵 4/10
Real numbers:

• Gaza: Israeli drones linked to ~40% civilian deaths (Just Security 2025)
• Ukraine: drones cause 70% of Russian equipment losses
• Global market: $25B in 2025 and exploding (SIPRI)

🧵 3/10
Geopolitical shift: Non-state actors (Hamas, Houthis) can now deny sea lanes and bleed superpowers. Drones account for ~40% of all battlefield losses in Ukraine and Gaza. Traditional air superiority is evaporating overnight.

🧵 2/10
The tech: Bayraktar TB2, Shahed-136, DJI-based FPVs. 90% cheaper than manned aircraft, zero pilot risk.

In 2025 more than 30 countries operate armed drones, 90+ have surveillance fleets.
China and Turkey are the new arms bazaar (CNAS)

🧵 Drones: The cheap weapons rewriting geopolitics

A $500 FPV drone can now kill a $10M tank. In 2024 alone Ukraine destroyed ~3,000 Russian armored vehicles with them (SIPRI 2025). How did a hobbyist gadget become the great equalizer in asymmetric warfare?

Fear fades when you choose to act from reason rather than impulse 🌬️✨

🧵 10/10
⚖️ Trade binds nations, not breaks them. GATT Art. XXIV reminds us customs unions exist for shared prosperity, not isolation.

For the US, Mexico, and Canada: real sovereignty is interdependence. In a multipolar world, going alone isn’t strength—it’s vulnerability

🧵 9/10
• Panel victory → tariffs cut in half, stability returns
• Loss → Mexican duties on US corn, Canadian hits on tech → 0.5% US GDP wipeout

Long-term: North America cedes manufacturing crown to Asia

🧵 8/10
Legal path still open: USMCA Chapter 31 allows binding arbitration panels. Mexico has already signaled intent to challenge. Article 32.10 demands transparency—breaches justify counter-tariffs (remember Mexico’s pork retaliation?). WTO escalation possible

🧵 7/10
Diplomatic fallout: strained trilateral summits, Mexico & Canada openly exploring BRICS alternatives. A divided North America emboldens Russia and Iran while the West fights wars in Ukraine and the Middle East

🧵 6/10
The US 🇺🇸 “victory”? Short-term political points, long-term pain: higher inflation, slower factories, and alienated neighbors

🧵 5/10
Decoupling in real time:

🇲🇽 Up to 500k manufacturing jobs at risk; Ford, GM, Stellantis supply chains collapse
🇨🇦 Alberta oil and lumber sectors bleed billions

Brexit-level disruption, but across a $20 trillion integrated economy

🧵 4/10
Global Repercussions: This isn't just bilateral—it's a North American unraveling with worldwide echoes. China gains as manufacturers reroute via Asia, weakening USMCA's edge against global rivals

🧵 3/10
• Mexico (80% exports to US) risks recession
• Canada faces supply shocks and higher costs
• US consumers see pricier cars, appliances, groceries

🧵 2/10
These tariffs on cars and steel are sold as migration leverage, but they directly undermine the USMCA’s promise of integrated North American trade

🧵 Trump's Tariffs: Fracturing North America's Economy?

25% duties could slash Mexico’s exports 10% and push Canada’s inflation to 4%. OECD forecasts just 1.2% growth for both in 2025—below global average. The real question: will the US also pay the price of its own trade war?

Trump's tariffs are slamming Mexico and Canada's growth. OECD warns of economic contractions that could wipe out thousands of jobs. Time to renegotiate USMCA or escalate the trade war? The hit to our supply chains is real—and urgent

Trump floats talks with Maduro but won't rule out troops in Venezuela: Chat ☕️ or intervene 🔫? A diplomatic pivot that could ease sanctions, but military risks loom. Diplomacy or theater? 🤔💭

I cherish those instances when I recognize that I am handling a situation better than an earlier version of myself would have 🤍✨

🧵 8/8

NYC doesn’t need another sequel.

You deserve policies that:
✅ Lift without trapping
✅ Grow without enslaving

Congrats Zohran!
NYC: learn from years of LatAm scars.

#ZohranMamdani

🧵 7/8

REAL FACTS:
🇦🇷 Menem (neoliberal) → debt
Kirchner (populist) → more debt + controls
Debt 2023: 166% GDP

🇧🇷 Lula (left) → boom
Bolsonaro (right) → COVID cash explosion
Lula again → same fiscal hole
2024 deficit: 2.1% GDP

🧵 6/8

FLEEING FAR-RIGHT DOESN’T MEAN JUMPING TO FAR-LEFT.
Both extremes are TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN.

Left spends like drunk sailors.
Right slashes like chainsaws.

Both kill growth, both love power.
Both feed each other.

👉 World Bank: populist cycles = -1.5 % GDP/year

🧵 5/8

Venezuela again

Promise: “People’s supermarkets”

Reality:
• 2016: 10 % of food
• 8-hour lines

State “gave” food… that vanished

🧵 4/8

Bolivia – Evo

Promise: “School cash + free buses”

Reality:
• Poverty ↓60 % → 37 % (at first)
• Fiscal hole ↑8.2 % GDP

The “gift” became handcuffs

🧵 3/8

Argentina – Kirchner

Promise: “Freeze rents”

Reality:
• Black-market homes
• Housing investment ↓50 %
• Inflation 54 %

Tenants paid peanuts… in a country on fire