The rate of global warming already alarms us. “Land warming” is accelerating at twice the global rate, contributing to droughts, reduced agricultural production, and the prevalence of weather disruptions such as polar vortexes in the middle latitudes of the U.S. and Europe.
I have always sided with Warren Buffet’s take on gold, that it’s in the category of “assets that will never produce anything.” Recently, despite not producing anything, its price has far outperformed the S&P 500.
x.com/globalmktobs...
Consumer debt delinquencies jumped to their highest level since the Great Financial Crisis.
The Congressional Budget Office lowered its population forecast as a result of lower birth rates and reduced immigration. It also now projects deaths to exceed births by 2033, 7 years earlier than previously. We’re on track for a demographic train wreck like Japan, China, and Germany.
The Fed’s higher short-term interest rates are meant to reduce economic growth which often reduces inflation. Frequently, the higher short-term interest rates slow the economy so much, that the economy goes into recession.
It’s not clear that will happen this time. But, this chart suggests it will.
Yield curve inversion is when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. This generally happens when the Federal Reserve raises short-term interest rates to try to slow inflation. The Fed manages the interest rate for overnight lending to banks, so it is very short term.
Normally long-term interest rates are higher than short-term interest rates. For example, the interest rate on a 10-year bond is higher than that for a 1-year bond. The issuer must offer that to the bond holder, because the bond holder is taking more risk locking up their money at a given rate.
The S&P 500 suffered its largest decline from Christmas until New Years since at least 1952
The yield curve just un-inverted.
This happened in 1990, 2000, and 2008 - all 3 times leading to sharp downturns.
Trump begins blaming the Democrats for the recession/depression that could be coming.
CRE refinancing at 6+% rates could push many properties into default.
#maruritywall #CRE #investing #economy
The trillion dollar maturity wall of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) mortgages promises a rise in default rates, as owners are forced to refinance at higher rates.
Nice job!
U.S. population growth near zero. Without immigration, population would decline and age rapidly.
The Dow Jones down 10 days in a row - the longest losing stretch in history. And finally a bounce.
56% of American consumers expect the stock market to go up in the next year - the most positive reading in stock market history.
bilello.blog/newsletter
Touch image for complete chart.
California on track to pass Germany as the World's 4th largest economy
$NVDA now in correction territory. Down 10% from closing high.
Let's pour one out for Russia's 2nd largest bank, heading to levels not since the 1990's when Russians were drinking cologne.
…and large parts of the U.S. economy are weakening. The drop in job openings will begin to hit in H2:2025.
[Press image to see full chart. #economy #jobs #stocks
China 10-year yield is plunging. It’s not officially a recession…
BTIG: “.. The bigger concern .. is whether the weakness in value/cyclicals is foretelling of something more ominous.
“.. the action in energy and materials this month is hard to ignore with XLB the most oversold since the fall of '22. If they can't bounce here, when will they?!” 👀
Small cap stocks underperforming the NASDAQ 100 at a level not seen since the Dot Com Bubble in 2000.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 39% of total capitalization. The other 490 stocks are being left behind as market breadth continues to decline.
The PE ratio of the S&P 500 has now passed its 2021 peak, making it one of the most expensive markets in recent history.
Unemployment rate rising above 36-month has reliably signaled a recession since 1950.
S&P value stocks have declined for 10 consecutive days, the longest losing streak in history.
Hi Stever! It looks like you have an interesting coaching business…and a comedy background, which is much needed in the business world.
I live in NYC. We have two that park in our building.
