Henrik Singmann's Avatar

Henrik Singmann

@singmann.bsky.social

Associate Professor at UCL Experimental Psychology; math psych & cognitive psychology; statistical and cognitive modelling in R; German migrant worker in UK

1,100 Followers  |  1,053 Following  |  200 Posts  |  Joined: 27.09.2023  |  1.556

Latest posts by singmann.bsky.social on Bluesky

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1.1 Introduction - Accessibility in Data Visualization - Open Visualization Academy

You can catch my full, open course on accessibility in visualization here:
openvisualizationacademy.org/courses/acce...

30.01.2026 18:55 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 49    ๐Ÿ” 14    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

๐ŸšจNew paper altert๐Ÿšจ

As a synthesis of my PhD research, we revisited the prevailing assumption about the mechanisms underlying repetition learning, and re-evaluated these assumption in light of recent findings.

Now out in Perspectives on Psychological Science:
doi.org/10.1177/1745...

03.02.2026 18:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 16    ๐Ÿ” 9    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
  The decline effect (Protzko & Schooler, 2017) is an observed phenomenon where effect sizes in experiments apparently diminish in size from the first paper demonstrating the effect to later replications. This has been taken as a symptom of an unhealthy scientific ecosystem, possibly caused by the "winner's curse" (selection on significance and regression to the mean), publication bias or opportunistic analyses. I show that decline effects can arise as an artifact from a much simpler source: the original article determining the sign of the effect in a meta-analysis. Moreover, such artifactual decline effects will show correlations with some of the same experimental properties that one would expect from biases from poor behavior, such as the sample size of the original study.

The decline effect (Protzko & Schooler, 2017) is an observed phenomenon where effect sizes in experiments apparently diminish in size from the first paper demonstrating the effect to later replications. This has been taken as a symptom of an unhealthy scientific ecosystem, possibly caused by the "winner's curse" (selection on significance and regression to the mean), publication bias or opportunistic analyses. I show that decline effects can arise as an artifact from a much simpler source: the original article determining the sign of the effect in a meta-analysis. Moreover, such artifactual decline effects will show correlations with some of the same experimental properties that one would expect from biases from poor behavior, such as the sample size of the original study.

New draft: "Decline effects, statistical artifacts, and a meta-analytic paradox". In this manuscript I show how a common practice in meta-analysis (eg the 2015 Open Science Collaboration) creates artifactual signatures of poor scientific behavior. PDF: raw.githubusercontent.com/richarddmore... 1/x

02.02.2026 14:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 71    ๐Ÿ” 28    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

Academics vying for a spot in Epsteinโ€˜s world. There are so many. I feel the need to make a thread, so I donโ€™t keep confusing them. 1/

31.01.2026 21:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2901    ๐Ÿ” 1414    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 73    ๐Ÿ“Œ 219
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Don't You Know That You're Toxic? How Influencerโ€Driven Misinformation Fuels Online Toxicity Research on misinformation has focused on message content and cognitive bias, overlooking how source type shapes toxic engagement. This study addresses that gap by showing that influencer-driven misi...

I haven't read the study, but hat-tip for what I really hope is a Britney reference in the title. <chef's kiss>

02.02.2026 22:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

You can test new tech ideas using the Seinfeld Test

Would the product eliminate the plot of an episode? (Google maps, cell phones, paypal, battery packs)

Good tech.

Would the product inspire new Seinfeld plots? (NFTs, AI chatbots, crypto currency, blindboxes, metaverse land sales)

Bad tech.

31.01.2026 06:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8838    ๐Ÿ” 2860    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 76    ๐Ÿ“Œ 148
IWW IU 520 (Railroad Workers) PRESENTS:

TROLLEY PROBLEM SOLUTION

"Slip the switch" by flipping it while the trolley's front wheels have passed through, but before the back wheels do. This will cause a controlled derailment bringing the trolley to a safe halt.

IWW IU 520 (Railroad Workers) PRESENTS: TROLLEY PROBLEM SOLUTION "Slip the switch" by flipping it while the trolley's front wheels have passed through, but before the back wheels do. This will cause a controlled derailment bringing the trolley to a safe halt.

Union workers solved the trolley problem, you're welcome

31.01.2026 01:45 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8276    ๐Ÿ” 2406    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 37    ๐Ÿ“Œ 145
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Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy The gambler's fallacy is the tendency to expect random processes to switch more often than they actually doโ€”for example, to assign a higher probability to heads after a streak of tails. It's often ta...

Great paper giving a rational explanation for the gambler's "fallacy".

29.01.2026 17:45 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Confusion in gaming disorder measurement Abstract. Measurement is important for the scientific programmes of addictive behaviours. In the present study, we investigated the measurement of gaming d

First post of the year, new paper out today: we present possibly the biggest case of systematic Measurement Schmeasurement in tech use. It seems that most studies on gaming (videogame) addiction/disorder haven't measured gaming after all. This research took years, so long ๐Ÿงต doi.org/10.1098/rsos...

28.01.2026 09:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 193    ๐Ÿ” 100    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8    ๐Ÿ“Œ 20

New preprint by @semihaktepe.bsky.social ๐ŸŽ‰

We compare ANOVA/SDT/GLMM for binary judgments in 20 datasets of the truth effect. #lme4

Main conclusion:
"GLMMs are a theoretically sound and practically robust method and thus superior for analyzing binary judgments in social and cognitive psychology.โ€

28.01.2026 08:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 54    ๐Ÿ” 15    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

How many versions of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) exist? And how much does this affect research using the IGT? More than you might think. ๐Ÿงต

25.01.2026 11:16 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 96    ๐Ÿ” 44    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 6

This random online comment from 2018 remains one of the last half-century's most important works of political commentary. crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...

24.01.2026 17:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3447    ๐Ÿ” 1205    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 18    ๐Ÿ“Œ 31
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Most popular decision-making models assume that cognitive processes are static over time. In our new paper in Psych Review, we offer a simple extension to evidence accumulation models that lets researchers account for systematic changes in parameters across time ๐Ÿ“ˆ

psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...

20.01.2026 22:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 28    ๐Ÿ” 9    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Here it is! #rstats

19.01.2026 20:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 35    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Too many significance tests!!

Made this little graphic for my #stats class, showing the various kinds of (N)HST and how interpreting confidence intervals can replace all of them.

Made with #rstats #ggplot (duh)

12.01.2026 20:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 104    ๐Ÿ” 27    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
OSF

I am happy to share that our preprint โ€œ๐—ช๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฎ: ๐—” ๐—ง๐˜‚๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—ด๐—ป๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ตโ€ is now out.

Huge thanks to @bayslab.org, Julie de Falco, Zahara, @cjungerius.bsky.social, @ivntmc.bsky.social, Adam, and Xiaolu for the lovely collaboration.

doi.org/10.31234/osf...

12.01.2026 14:43 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 42    ๐Ÿ” 26    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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How to create a more accessible line chart โ€“ Nicola Rennie The default settings for chart software are not guaranteed to be accessible, and often need to be adapted for your own chart. In this blog post, weโ€™ll transform a line chart to make it more accessible...

๐Ÿ‘€ New blog post! ๐Ÿ‘€

Ever made a *spaghetti* line chart and wondered how you can make it more accessible and more aesthetically pleasing at the same time? ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Read this blog post: nrennie.rbind.io/blog/accessi...

#DataViz #RStats

12.01.2026 09:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 91    ๐Ÿ” 27    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

It's the 3rd of January 1939, your name is professor James Smith and you are staring at a drawing of a fish. It's not a regular fish. It is a completely impossible fish.

06.01.2026 22:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1158    ๐Ÿ” 525    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 10    ๐Ÿ“Œ 110

The details of this paper post mortem are pretty shocking.

10.01.2026 12:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
YACHT โ€” I Thought The Future Would Be Cooler
YouTube video by YACHT YACHT โ€” I Thought The Future Would Be Cooler

As the new year is bringing only more of the mess of the last, I am reminded of this banger from ten years ago. Things should have been much cooler by now but instead we have tech billionaires in cahoots with increasingly right-wing governments:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8ca...

08.01.2026 10:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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New Year, New Colour Tool
for you data visualizers and maybe the odd designer

obumbratta.com/colour

07.01.2026 16:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 256    ๐Ÿ” 62    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 12
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WARN-D machine learning competition is live ยป Eiko Fried If you share one single thing of our team in 2026โ€”on social media or per email with your colleaguesโ€”please let it be this machine learning competition. It was half a decade of work to get here, especi...

After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participateโ€”we have incredibly rich data.

If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.

eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...

07.01.2026 19:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 186    ๐Ÿ” 161    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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Merry Christmas

24.12.2025 21:55 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2612    ๐Ÿ” 791    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 9    ๐Ÿ“Œ 32
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How well do we really understand the human mind? This question is at the heart of UCL Beautiful Minds - a brand new eight-part season of podcasts and documentaries that dives deep into the complexities of human cognition and neurodiversity.

๐ŸŽง Listen here: uclpress.co.uk/introducing-...

24.12.2025 07:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Advances in Statistical Model Evaluation
Submission deadline: 31 December 2026
The Special Issue accepts theoretical, methodological, applied, and philosophically oriented research on frequentist, Bayesian, and information-theoretic advances in statistical model evaluation.

Advances in Statistical Model Evaluation Submission deadline: 31 December 2026 The Special Issue accepts theoretical, methodological, applied, and philosophically oriented research on frequentist, Bayesian, and information-theoretic advances in statistical model evaluation.

Topics of interest for this call for papers include but are not restricted to:

โ€ข Methodological advances in fit assessment, parametric bootstrapping, cross-validation, and/or other frequentist model evaluation methods

โ€ข Methodological advances in prior and/or posterior predictive model checking, specification and use of informed priors, Bayes factors, and/or other Bayesian model evaluation

โ€ข Methodological advances in minimum description length, normalized maximum likelihood, and/or other information-theoretic model evaluation methods

โ€ข Practical applications and tutorials of advanced model evaluation methods

โ€ข Philosophy of science issues underlying statistical model evaluation

โ€ข Critiques/perspectives/commentaries on statistical model evaluation

Topics of interest for this call for papers include but are not restricted to: โ€ข Methodological advances in fit assessment, parametric bootstrapping, cross-validation, and/or other frequentist model evaluation methods โ€ข Methodological advances in prior and/or posterior predictive model checking, specification and use of informed priors, Bayes factors, and/or other Bayesian model evaluation โ€ข Methodological advances in minimum description length, normalized maximum likelihood, and/or other information-theoretic model evaluation methods โ€ข Practical applications and tutorials of advanced model evaluation methods โ€ข Philosophy of science issues underlying statistical model evaluation โ€ข Critiques/perspectives/commentaries on statistical model evaluation

Announcement: I am excited to be co-editing (with Li Cai) an upcoming Special Issue of the Journal of Mathematical Psychology on "Advances in Statistical Model Evaluation." Proposals due Feb 1. Details: www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...

Please repost!

#quantpsych #mathpsych #philsci #statsky

18.11.2025 18:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 16    ๐Ÿ” 16    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
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He made beer thatโ€™s also a vaccine. Now controversy is brewing An NIH scientistโ€™s maverick approach reveals legal, ethical, moral, scientific and social challenges to developing potentially life-saving vaccines.

He made beer thatโ€™s also a vaccine. Now controversy is brewing: shared just as an interesting story. www.sciencenews.org/article/vacc...

21.12.2025 01:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 48    ๐Ÿ” 15    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 9
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The โ€œmachinal bypassโ€ and how weโ€™re using AI to avoid ourselves | PNAS The &ldquo;machinal bypass&rdquo; and how we&rsquo;re using AI to avoid ourselves

Love this short opinion piece on โ€œmechanical bypassโ€ in analogy to โ€œspiritual bypassโ€.

21.12.2025 04:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 180    ๐Ÿ” 64    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 9    ๐Ÿ“Œ 8
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H0 H0 H0 ๐Ÿ˜‚

20.12.2025 23:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 180    ๐Ÿ” 43    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4

@singmann is following 20 prominent accounts