Peter Kropotkin

But some people really and truly are that delusional. One doesn't have to be even a cynical person to see how fraudulent and performative this has been.

Many probably know and understand it deep down, which makes it worse.

Rather than acknowledge it, they ignore or deny it, because it thus the foundation for their approach to Russia collapses. They're revanchist, revisonist, and want to undo the outcome of the Cold War when the Soviet and Warsaw space was under their thumb.

For that reason, they will never agree to any arrangement that protects them from subversion and pressure from integration with Western political, economic, and security institutions. They want it defenseless.

Too many simply and utter refuse to acknowledge that the barrier towards peace, compromise, and a durable settlement ultimately is rooted in the fact that Putinist Russia doesn't believe in the legitimacy of Ukraine's pro-Western regime and political orientation.

As a side, I've become increasingly contemptuous of people who take these talks seriously. There are plenty of people advocating peace who are, while well meaning, are certainly intelligent and erudite enough to know better, but are letting wishful thinking guide them to make poor judgement.

Trump is too mercurial and impatient to be reliable. And he's increasingly desperate to find a way out, in no small part because Ukraine is a block in his goal to normalize relations with Russia, which is part of a strategy to try and counter China (yes, it's stupid and won't work).

Of course, I do think that Europe's (inclusive of Ukraine) political strategy of managing DC (Trump) is not sustainable, and they need to accelerate their efforts to wean off US intelligent and military support, fast.

The good news is that it appears that, after much fears and alarm, there is and won't be an ultimatum in which Ukraine is forced to accept bad terms for face loss of US support.

Yes. It's just another round of dead cat diplomacy. Europe and Ukraine will modify and amend the proposal. The trilateral framework will be offered to Russia. Russia will reject it and offer amendments none of the three can accept. Talks collapse. We're back again here in 3-6 months.

Ze may not be a perfect man. He's flawed. Me makes bad decisions. He enables cronyism and corruption. Amongst other things.
But this is also true of the Ukrainian president.
He's a good man. A patriot. A brilliant diplomat. And he will not compromise his country's interests. Ever. He'd rather die.

Yes, US should do more to add pressure, but only on the Russian war machine and effort. Not because it will lead to negotiations. That's not going to happen as long as Putin breathes.

To be fair, I'm not sure there's anything NATO can do to get *Putin* to agree to a compromise. While he can't achieve his maximalist war aims, a sense of historic mission and sunk cost make it impossible for him to ask for less than what he can't get.

So with further updates, there's a lot of counter-reporting. It seems this is just something done independently by Witkoff Dmitriev. Doesn't appear to be backed by Moscow or DC line.

So with further updates, there's a lot of counter-reporting. It seems this is just something done independently by Witkoff Dmitriev. Doesn't appear to be backed by Moscow or DC line.

Update: Based on reports, it's not very clear how much support this effort has. Might be an independent project by Witkoff and Dmitriev.

There won't be a short-term deal in the form of a ceasefire because Russia will insist on limits on Ukraine's military, which is a non-starter. There won't be a ceasefire, nor a peace deal. At least anytime soon. Maybe by the end of next year at the very very earliest. And that's optimistic.

This seems to me to very likely be a replay of the Anchorage fiasco, where a credulous Witkoff oversells a breakthrough and hashes and pitches a framework to Trump that Europeans and Ukrainians will find to be unreasonable. And talks fall apart. Again.

YouTube video by WKYC Channel 3 House Speaker responds to Trump's talk of a third term as president

This is what he said back then (date: 4/1/2025)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bQ9...

It's actually not new. He made the exact same statement after Trump's first NBC Welker interview in March. This is just a reiteration.

Admittedly escalation risk is always a factor in my calculus, but it's more to the margins at this point because Putin is and remains desperate to avoid finding excuses to get NATO directly drawn in.

And I agree with Hoffman. We're better off investing in accelerating Ukraine's domestic missile program so they can mass produce economically efficient weapon systems rather than use the same money on a few dozen highly expense munitions that aren't likely to do that much.

As a side, I think we need to avoid getting caught up over specific weapon systems and focus on the abstract on what systems are most practical and effective to Ukraine's defense
bsky.app/profile/frho...

The threat is consistent with "more-of-the-same". He neither able nor willing to directly escalate against NATO. But (as I stated before 👇), hybrid campaign would get more vicious
bsky.app/profile/pete...

And this probably accurately reflects current thinking by Trump 👇

Good enough. But the sanctions carry political force more than impact on RU economy. It indicates Trump is willing to press Putin rather than just arm-twist Ukraine. He is aiming for fair terms.

Which means Ze's patience (and Putin's arrogance and pride) has paid off. Or is paying off more.

I expect more cycles, or wouldn't be surprised, but the trajectory remains net positive.

I'll admit it. I didn't think he would do it... and they have real teeth too.

In many ways... It seems like groundhog day... But the cycle feels... either shortened and replay slightly different.