He's already insisting on legislative changes to allow for such but to me it seems reactive to Trump and to buy time. It's just not possible.
Sure, US provides capabilities that EUR can't provide short-term but it's not existential to the war effort (losing it would hurt quite a bit though). Also, Europe is pursing aggressive rearmament & working on developing independent capabilities, bc US is forcing Europe to carry the burden.
Also (and perhaps most importantly), Ukraine is not nearly as dependent on US support today as during the war. Europe provides the bulk of diplomatic, military, and financial assistance, which gives him a cushion to resist US pressure.
I think Ze should either promise not to run for re-election after the war. I'm no constitutional expert on Ukrainian law, but perhaps maybe work out an arrangement (through legislation) where he resigns and the Rada appoints a president, even during wartime.
Also congratulations on receiving your doctorate Dr. :)
We all make mistakes, I'm sure she understands <3
Let's hope Professor.
There's another word for it: genocide.
At least the gambit failed.
I mean to state that Ukraine achieved its goal of being an independent state. Hazards and challenges notwithstanding.
Just? No. But a victory nonetheless.
Ukraine will deserve better than what any deal will allow, but it will be good enough. And that "good enough" is ultimately priceless. They won. They're free.
I recall Finnish President Staub mentioning how he talked to Ukrainians how their own experiences with Russia after Winter War could provide perspective. Ukraine will be partioned, and likely "militarily neutral". But it will be free and part of the transatlantic community.
Regardless, Ukraine will never agree to any agreement that allows de jure recognition. Especially Europe.
All this shows is that Putin will continue to double down on his maximalism and attempts to put pressure on Ukraine will reinforce it.
As a side, I also think it's increasingly clear that Europe and Ukraine need to start their own formats for diplomacy. It doesn't matter if talks don't go anywhere.
Now we're on track for a joint US-Ukraine proposal which will be pitched to the Kremlin, which they will reject. Talks will collapse, and we'll be back here again in 3-6 months.
I really wonder if Vance thought this gambit would work. It seems he was the 'mastermind' behind the ultimatum scheme: accept the proposal by 11/27 or see support cut off. Was never going to work, and it very quickly imploded. It was all a half-baked bluff.
Yep.
But some people really and truly are that delusional. One doesn't have to be even a cynical person to see how fraudulent and performative this has been.
Many probably know and understand it deep down, which makes it worse.
Rather than acknowledge it, they ignore or deny it, because it thus the foundation for their approach to Russia collapses. They're revanchist, revisonist, and want to undo the outcome of the Cold War when the Soviet and Warsaw space was under their thumb.
For that reason, they will never agree to any arrangement that protects them from subversion and pressure from integration with Western political, economic, and security institutions. They want it defenseless.
Too many simply and utter refuse to acknowledge that the barrier towards peace, compromise, and a durable settlement ultimately is rooted in the fact that Putinist Russia doesn't believe in the legitimacy of Ukraine's pro-Western regime and political orientation.
As a side, I've become increasingly contemptuous of people who take these talks seriously. There are plenty of people advocating peace who are, while well meaning, are certainly intelligent and erudite enough to know better, but are letting wishful thinking guide them to make poor judgement.
Trump is too mercurial and impatient to be reliable. And he's increasingly desperate to find a way out, in no small part because Ukraine is a block in his goal to normalize relations with Russia, which is part of a strategy to try and counter China (yes, it's stupid and won't work).
Of course, I do think that Europe's (inclusive of Ukraine) political strategy of managing DC (Trump) is not sustainable, and they need to accelerate their efforts to wean off US intelligent and military support, fast.
The good news is that it appears that, after much fears and alarm, there is and won't be an ultimatum in which Ukraine is forced to accept bad terms for face loss of US support.
Yes. It's just another round of dead cat diplomacy. Europe and Ukraine will modify and amend the proposal. The trilateral framework will be offered to Russia. Russia will reject it and offer amendments none of the three can accept. Talks collapse. We're back again here in 3-6 months.
