@insteconomics.bsky.social
Economist in Sydney, Australia. Personal account, usual disclaimers. If you like my short form content, you will just love my long form newsletter: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/
BREAKING Iran will continue missile attacks for as long as necessary says foreign minister, adding negotiations with US 'no longer on the agenda'
the test of the TACO is follow through, and it's not convincing yet, tbh. Asian equity indices have caught up on late US trading; but yields up small, WTI well off the lows at $88, precious metals small bid. Equity futures in US and Europe are small down from the close. this isn't over by any means:
The US Administration has embarked on a large, unprecedented program of excluding lawful, highly-skilled workers and students from the United States.
I talked with the brilliant @gracesegers.bsky.social at @newrepublic.com about the broad economic ripple effects.
newrepublic.com/article/2073...
god give me the confidence of Hudson Institute guys arguing that Tehran is the first domino against Beijing
Noah was born on a placid island of blissful stupidity in the midst of black seas of infinity, and it was not meant that he should voyage far. His takes, each straining in its own direction, have hitherto harmed us little; but someday...
Yes they do
Broad-based weakness in US February non-farm payrolls
You can certainly ping him on those grounds, something Bernanke explicitly sought to correct. Things then went the other way, with people claiming monetary policy was impotent.
Broad-based weakness in US February non-farm payrolls
Alan Greenspan turns 100 on Friday. That's as good a time as any to re-up my rehabilitation of Greenspan, based on Sebastian Mallaby's 2016 biography open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...
Alan Greenspan turns 100 on Friday. That's as good a time as any to re-up my rehabilitation of Greenspan, based on Sebastian Mallaby's 2016 biography open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...
Yeah, in practice here the measure of operational success is just, "is it safe to navigate the Strait of Hormuz?"
If the answer is 'no,' then you haven't yet achieved the objectives.
Home by Christmas is what I am hearing.
World Book Day repost
Ahhh I see it is parental shame day
Your periodic reminder that saving is a residual measure, not the start of a causal chain. Individuals decide on how much to spend. Saving equals income less consumption. It’s an outcome not an impulse.
What happened to "Trump will dampen things down ahead of the midterms"
Is the extra interest in Anthropic/Claude at the expense of OpenAI affecting Claude API response times? Asking for a friend.
"This poses an existential threat to the Iranian regime, and they will throw everything at America & Israel. They will be seeking to survive as a regime. If they do, it will be a victory for them. It would also be a problem for the Trump administration." mickryan.substack.com/p/decapitati...
Given rumors about an attack on Embassy Kuwait, I feel obligated to mention that in earlier research we found that casualties among diplomats were viewed as seriously as casualties among soldiers
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...
My old landlord made an error and wanted to drop my security deposit off to me directly.
He pulls up to my new building driving a very new Porsche.
That’s who the housing shortage enriches, folks!
Just build more!
A statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
https://anthropic.com/news/statement-comments-secretary-war
I spent yesterday afternoon teaching my students about the Trump AI strategy that Dean largely wrote, with additional material from his substack. This is a remarkable statement for him to make.
There is no equivocation or nuance in Hegseth's statement and policy. He demanded, in his own words, "full, unrestricted access" to a private companies resources and proprietary models. When Anthropic refused, he designated the company as an enemy and enacted economic retribution against it.
Court of International Trade sees hundreds of cases seeking refunds of IEEPA tariff duties paid, with interest www.ft.com/content/365d...
Japanese PM appoints fiscal reflationists to the BoJ policy board, including Chuo University economist Asada Tōichirō, a heterodox Keynesian who translated Hyman Minsky into Japanese observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichi-i...
Japanese PM appoints fiscal reflationists to the BoJ policy board, including Chuo University economist Asada Tōichirō, a heterodox Keynesian who translated Hyman Minsky into Japanese observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichi-i...
Court of International Trade sees hundreds of cases seeking refunds of IEEPA tariff duties paid, with interest www.ft.com/content/365d...
US Treasury Secretary initiated January's yen-dollar rate check, according to the Nikkei. Bessent being more interested in intervention than the Japanese MoF tells you something asia.nikkei.com/business/mar...
