Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL)

"Safeguarding data quality is no longer a single checkpoint but an end-to-end pipeline - one that reallocates substantial resources from sampling to continuous fraud monitoring"

Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!

Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf

"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."

Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!

Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe? In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...

Tariffs might be the word of 2025.

Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

Nano-targeting is not a persuasive weapon: it is a dissuasion and polarization weapon. New paper out osf.io/preprints/so... with the brilliant Thomas Robinson, @simonhix.bsky.social and @fresejoris.bsky.social – the first to quantify the perverse incentives/inherent democratic dangers of this tech.

A major step forward for large-scale survey research from our own Thomas Robinson & @patricksturg.bsky.social: SOCbot is a powerful AI tool for open-ended survey items—fast, cheap, reduces burden, and tackles longstanding measurement error in social science & labour stats
Paper: tinyurl.com/2yxcbshs

LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab

ESRC-funded PhD @lsegovernment.bsky.social × Campaign Lab: New Ways to Think Political Persuasion (start Sep 2026, 3.5 yrs)

Methods-heavy (experiments/computation)

Topics: multi-stage persuasion, interpersonal mechanisms, AI–voter interactions

📅Apply by 10 Dec 2025: www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...

Are you, or do you know, someone who wants to do a PhD?

Applications are open for full funding (scholarship + maintenance) @sotonpolitics.bsky.social through the @scdtp.bsky.social

Get in touch if you're interested

southcoastdtp.ac.uk/apply/

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Thrilled to share this 16-country conjoint experiment with @catherinedevries.bsky.social & @simonhix.bsky.social. We find strong support for majoritarian reforms and tougher legal enforcement, even when paired with policies people dislike. Policy-inelastic institutional preferences exist! A 🧵...

The full report from our launch event is now available on our website!

It includes key takeaways from our three roundtable discussions on various aspects of public opinion research.

Read it here: publicopinionanalyticslab.github.io/event1_repor...

Foundations of European Politics - OUP textbook

Delighted to see the 2nd edition of Foundations of European Politics 🇪🇺 in print! @catherinedevries.bsky.social @sopro.bsky.social @jbslapin.bsky.social

If you teach EU or European politics, you can order an inspection copy here: global.oup.com/ushe/product...

Out now🎉 - Evidence (from distribution analyses and machine learning models on EES 2014-2024 data) of strong similarities and growing convergence in EU public opinion, particularly on economic issues. Common right-ward shifts on immigration, yes - but underlying drivers still vary. shorturl.at/KCx0S

The Quiet Collapse of Surveys Part II: adding some nuances Following up on the previous Substack which identified twin threats for surveys: increases in non-response and bots, this follow-up unpacks the nuances, busts myths, and offers practical fixes.

"Yes, there is ‘enshittification’ of surveys. But let me be the typical academic and point out that there are also many nuances and solutions"

@laurenleek.eu followed up her previous substack with more insights and ideas on survey quality!

laurenleek.substack.com/p/the-quiet-...

Kickoff Meeting and Workshop on AI for Survey Data Collection Methods and Data Analysis: Registration and Call for Submission Date: 10am-4pm, Wednesday 9th July Location: Room 642, Institute of Education (UCL), 20 Bedford Way, London, WC1H 0AL Organisers: Liam Wright (UCL), David Bann (UCL), and Gabriele Durrant (University ...

Kick-off Meeting and Workshop on AI for Survey Data Collection Methods and Data Analysis — connect and learn from other researchers in this field

📅 Wed 9th July, 10am-4pm

📍UCL IOE, London

Submit your proposal by: Thursday 29th May, 5pm

Link for info and sign up: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Some sharp insights from our very own @laurenleek.eu on the challenges AI poses to survey quality!

Re-upping this -- deadline Wednesday. Please reach out if you you're interested but unsure whether or not your work fits the theme. We can't guarantee a spot for every proposal, but we also really don't want people to self-select out!

@miriamsorace.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @patricksturg.bsky.social @victoraraujo.bsky.social @florianfoos.bsky.social @vchengm.bsky.social @adamdrummond.bsky.social @laurenleek.eu @conradaml.bsky.social

@joetwyman.bsky.social @anthonyjwells.bsky.social

Watch this space - much more to come from POAL!

@uniofreading.bsky.social @unisouthampton.bsky.social @lseblogs.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @benmtappin.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @turnbulldugarte.com @jasonreifler.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social

4. One of the biggest challenges in survey research has always been panel quality. The AI boom is turbo-charging this problem: bot-detection pipelines are currently holding up, but the fear is that AI bots may get significantly better.

3. Polling already struggles to capture minority voices—AI imputation could make it worse by flattening variation.

2. Strong partisan identities are harming inclusive representation as they lead to differential perceptions — women perceive politics as much more hostile, which leads to them being more likely to drop out of politics.

1. AI could transform public opinion research — from enabling dynamic surveys and large-N qualitative interviews, to improving imputation via synthetic data. But non-reproducibility and the potential for fraud are still big risks.

Some snapshots from our event on Friday, where we discussed the future of polling, the challenges ahead, and how AI is shaping survey research. Massive THANK YOU to all panelists for sharing their wisdom with us! Here’s a thread with some key take-aways: