Gopi Shah Goda

The new Trump administration is now making an unprecedented effort to PREVENT science from informing policy.

For many years, these committees of outside, independent scientists advised federal statistical agencies on best methods.

Administration says we don't want that.
bsky.app/profile/eric...

The White House war on federal statistics Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups

Good to see the FT editorial draw attention to this less well known casualty of the US regime - official statistics
on.ft.com/43Tejhn

The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project produces evidence-based policy proposals and analyses to promote broad-based economic growth.

Hi Bluesky! We’re The Hamilton Project.

We produce research and proposals on some of our nation’s most pressing economic policy challenges, from economic security and growth to climate and health care.

#EconSky @brookings.edu

The 2025 Economic Report of the President | CEA | The White House Today, the Council of Economic Advisers under the leadership of Chair Jared Bernstein released the 2025 Economic Report of the President, the 79th report since the establishment of CEA in 1946. The 20...

Happy ERP day! The 2025 Economic Report of the President is out now! Chapters cover a wide range of topics incl. remote work and K-12 ed - be sure to check it out. I'm presenting the health policy chapter at Brookings next Wed, links below #econsky #healthpolicy
www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-...

Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence? Economists have long helped to shape policy on issues like taxes and health care. But flawed forecasts and arcane language have cost them credibility.

Thanks @bencasselman.bsky.social for this thoughtful examination of the relationship between economists & policymaking today, including voices of @jasonfurman.bsky.social @kclausing.bsky.social @imarinescu.bsky.social @jrothst.bsky.social me & many others.
#EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/b...

Thanks to TIAA Institute for funding this work! This paper is dedicated to my dad, who was the inspiration for this research agenda.

Quick hits: Policies to think about as the administration changes Trade, civil service protections, Medicaid waivers, retirement security, the Paperwork Reduction Act, and more

Today in @briefingbook.bsky.social, @fkamal.bsky.social, Erica Groshen, @jrothst.bsky.social, @victoriaudalova.bsky.social, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @gsgoda.bsky.social, @awhf.bsky.social, @chloergibbs.bsky.social, and I flag issues to watch as the admin changes www.briefingbook.info/p/quick-hits...

The Distributional Implications of Itemized Medical Deductions Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

If you like this paper and want to learn about how the tax savings for IMDs are distributed, how it compares to the MID, and how it changed with the TCJA, check out my related paper with Ithai Lurie, Priyanka Parikh, and Chelsea Swete here!

www.nber.org/papers/w33157

11/ END

In conclusion, subsidizing medical expenses through the tax code imposes significant economic burdens, reducing the net subsidy available to taxpayers. 10/

The implied costs for alternative subsidy structures simulated using the model estimates are slightly lower but still substantial relative to the overall tax savings, as tracking out-of-pocket medical spending likely accounts for a large part of the hassle.

9/

Finally, I estimate a simple model that makes use of differences in the value of the subsidy across states. The model generates an implied cost of claiming the subsidy ~80% as large as the tax savings, on average. For some groups, the implied cost exceeds the tax savings. 8/

I explore potential mechanisms behind incomplete take-up and find evidence that lack of awareness plays a role – as households are eligible more years, they are more and more likely to take advantage of the deduction. 7/

What’s more – those who are eligible but don’t claim the subsidy actually have *higher* levels of medical spending than those who are eligible and do claim. They also have lower income, lower levels of education and worse measures of health. 6/

Using detailed data on income and out-of-pocket medical spending from the HRS, I estimate what people could deduct and compare them to what they actually do. I find about half of deductions are claimed, and incomplete take-up costs older households more than $5B annually in lost tax savings. 5/

Does anyone actually spend that much on medical spending? Turns out over $75B in IMDs were deducted in 2021, about 2/3 by taxpayers over 65. The forgone revenue from this deduction is almost $10B annually – 29% of the forgone revenue from the mortgage interest deduction! 4/

What you can deduct is quite expansive! (Caveat: I'm not an accountant and do not offer tax advice ☺️) 3/

First, what is this subsidy? If you spend more than 7.5% of AGI on out-of-pocket medical spending, the excess can be included in your itemized deductions. Your itemized medical deduction (IMD) reduces your tax liability by reducing your taxable income:

2/

Subsidizing Medical Spending through the Tax Code: Take-Up, Targeting and the Cost of Claiming Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Hi #EconSky! 🚨New working paper alert!🚨

One way the U.S. gov’t subsidizes medical spending is by allowing certain expenses to be deducted on tax returns. But who is eligible, who claims it and why, and what are the implications?

www.nber.org/papers/w33213

Keep reading to learn more...! 1/

Do we need an econ joke as the price of entry?

Follow my Brookings Economist colleagues! go.bsky.app/7vNczgp

Great idea -- please add!

Welcome to Briefing Book The kind of analysis policymakers get, right in your inbox

There are way more people around here these days, so this might be a good time to reintroduce @briefingbook.bsky.social. We want to give you the kind of analysis we did as economic policy staffers at the White House. Here's our first post from last September. www.briefingbook.info/p/welcome-to...

It was great to write this post with my wonderful collaborator @chvanhoutven.bsky.social -- my first piece for Brookings!

The effect of online interviews on the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment Negativity among online respondents is dragging sentiment down by nearly 9 index points

The effect of online interviews in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment open.substack.com/pub/briefing...

I seek an incoming PhD Student to work with me & 2 other Duke faculty on aging, disability, equity, complex care, long-term care-full funding. A tailored program that builds rigorous causal inference skills and multiple research opportunities. #healthpolicy populationhealth.duke.edu/education/ph...

It's been great to be a part of @briefingbook.bsky.social and watch it grow over the last year! Thanks to all of our readers and contributors for helping us bring economic policy analysis to a broader audience. #EconSky

Briefing Book | Kevin Rinz | Substack The economic analysis policymakers get, from their expert former staffers. Click to read Briefing Book, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

Lots of new followers here since last week - you should also subscribe to @briefingbook.bsky.social, the economic policy newsletter I run with @gsgoda.bsky.social, Jeff Zhang, and Wes Yin. It’s good, I promise! www.briefingbook.info

How can we strengthen the direct care workforce? Policymakers have a wide range of policy levers available to address direct care worker shortages.

Today in Briefing Book, @aaronsojourner.org's debut, with @gsgoda.bsky.social, on how to strengthen the direct care workforce www.briefingbook.info/p/how-can-we...

The new Circular A-4 will avoid biased climate economic analysis An update to the influential US government guidelines encourages economic analysis tailored to the unique aspects of climate change and the energy transition

Noah Kaufman makes his Briefing Book debut today, highlighting important ways in which updated guidance from OMB will improve our understanding of the effects of climate-related regulations 📈📉 www.briefingbook.info/p/the-new-ci...

Update to this thread:

Thanks to generous support from multiple donors, fellowships will be (competitively) available to support PhD students interested in participating in CBO’s dissertation fellows program or similar programs at other Congressional support agencies.