Konstantin Bogatyrev

Just registered: see you in Belfast @epssnet.bsky.social! If you're also a member, consider signing up to the mentoring scheme by March 31 (either as a mentee, mentor, or both 👋). I've found it to be really rewarding and worthwhile. Details here: epssnet.org/about/divers... #polisky

The One Political Bias To Avoid More Than Any Other Motivated Causal Attribution

We explain political change using totally different causal models if we approve of outcome of not:

1. Change we like is organic, bottom-up genuine expression of public demand

2. Change we dislike is artificial, top-down result of manipulative elite

I’m calling this Motivated Causal Attribution

Claude Code 31: Apple-to-Apple Audit of Six Callaway and Sant'Anna packages Six Packages, Same Estimator, Same Specifications, Same Dataset, Different Numbers!!! :(

oof (but also, great use case for coding agents) causalinf.substack.com/p/claude-cod...

Today at 4pm GMT: @gaetanoinglese.bsky.social is presenting “The Political Consequences of AI‑driven Employment Threats” at the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar (hybrid), organised with @sarahobolt.bsky.social, @florianfoos.bsky.social & @mathiaspoertner.bsky.social. Join us!

Our paper with @emilkamalov.bsky.social is out (open access)!

Among other things, we found that Russian wartime emigrants support those fleeing Russia for political reasons not only out of solidarity but also with a motivation to shape the diaspora's antiwar image in response to discrimination.

🚨New version of paper🚨
osf.io/preprints/os...
How do oligarchs shape policy outcomes in developing democracies?
I argue they do so through informal networks of legislators personally linked to them.
Using unique quantitative & qualitative evidence from Ukraine, I show that:

👇🏽

www.unibocconi.it/en/horizon-e...
Come work with me! Bocconi is a potential host of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions postdoctoral fellowships, and I am one of the available supervisors, considering projects about the political consequences of technological change.
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Five more days to submit nominations for the Margaret Levi Award for the Advancement of Comparative Methodology! A broad and unusual call. Feel free to self-nominate or to submit a nomination on behalf of work that has inspired you.

Proud of my co‑author @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social for absolutely killing it with our project at the NYU Rebecca Morton conference. Keep an eye on Georgy when he is on the market in a couple of years.

When you collect data online, are the results from humans or AI? In a project led by Booth PhD student Grace Zhang, we estimate the prevalence of AI agents on commonly used survey platforms:
osf.io/preprints/ps...
🧵

Wild that the top sociology journal doesn't require computational replication or open data.

I think this is the most well-taken point here. But it is not an argument for AI so much as it is for being less tolerant of human-generated research malpractice and shoddy analysis.

Putting my book together has been such an intellectually rewarding experience.

I know what went into it. I also know that AI couldn't have theorized any of it, collected any of the data (which I dug from church basements + archives), nor written any of it.

Thanks @davekarpf.bsky.social for this!

Just wanted to share my excitement: I have a few days planned in London where I will get to talk about research with a bunch of incredible scholars, followed by plans to hang out in pubs with myself and a book, listen to some live music and enjoy my time in this half homecountry of mine. 🇬🇧🍺🎤🎶🎸

To mark the 40th anniversary of the @britishacademy.bsky.social's postdoc fellowships, I'm at their SHAPE conference today to discuss academic precarity and what the sector can do to better understand and support early-career researchers. Some unordered thoughts (with past threads linked):

Call for Papers 📣

The EUI SPS Department invites submissions for the workshop “Political Behaviour in Central & Eastern Europe.”

Research on elections, public opinion, parties and political participation in the CEE region.

Submit by 30 March 2026
www.eui.eu/news-hub?id=...

#PoliticalScience

@yiqingxu.bsky.social shared Peter Kyungtae Park's paper "Shift-Share Designs in Political Science" with his family's permission. Peter was a PhD student at Stanford who passed away last December and was awarded his PhD posthumously. Please read and build on his work. arxiv.org/abs/2603.00135

As a programme update, we're delighted to welcome @gizemarikan.bsky.social as a speaker, and @gmelios.bsky.social as a discussant this Friday: ✍️

We’re hiring an LSE Fellow in Political Science and Public Policy at the School of Public Policy.

This post offers early career scholars the opportunity to teach postgraduate seminars and join a world leading social science research community!

Find out more: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

We (@lawrencemckay.bsky.social @williamlallen.bsky.social) have data on this stretching back to 2012 for a forthcoming report on the current academic job market in Politics - and let me just say it's unprecedentedly bad at the moment!

Special thanks to our discussants for joining the gig: @gloriagennaro.bsky.social, @ioannagkoutna.bsky.social, @kunheo.bsky.social, @gaetanoinglese.bsky.social, @kkrakows.bsky.social, Caroline Liqui Lung, @kspiekermann.bsky.social, @lvicari.bsky.social and @ewirsching.bsky.social 🙏

Bravissima, congratulazioni!

We're excited to welcome an outstanding speaker lineup featuring @danbischof.bsky.social, @mariacarreri.bsky.social, @ccavaille.bsky.social, @aeggers.bsky.social, @michaeleldar.bsky.social, @haasvioleta.bsky.social, Carlo Horz, Korhan Koçak and @aykutozturk.bsky.social 💫

For colleagues in the London area: next week (6-7 March), we're hosting the annual LSE Behavioural Political Economy Workshop at @lsegovernment.bsky.social together with @florianfoos.bsky.social and @thchau.bsky.social. If you'd like to come, please sign up here: forms.cloud.microsoft/e/uxaAx17DHq

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇

As an editor, I really appreciate it when people declining to review suggest potential reviewers. We (editors) don't know everybody and this is super helpful.

CALL FOR PAPERS | 6th LSE - Cambridge Workshop on Political Economy of Türkiye

📣Join #LSETürkiye at Cambridge, present your paper and receive valuable feedback

📜CfP: 6th Workshop on the Political Economy of Türkiye
9-10 July 2026

⏰3 days to go until the deadline to submit www.lse.ac.uk/contemporary...

@lsects.bsky.social @lse-ei.bsky.social @orkunsaka.bsky.social

AI can't do (good) literature reviews better and it can't follow the footnotes in a book to a new data source.

It can digitize the source AND it can write the code to analyze it but it can't tell you which design is appropriate.

It can't write a new analytically consistent and complete theory.

It turns out Wednesdays can accommodate five research seminars in one department. Impressive levels of intellectual density at @lsegovernment.bsky.social!