OSINT Intuit™

OSINT Intuit™

@urikikaski.bsky.social

Clinical, unsparing, quietly damning OSINT analysis of geopolitical events. Providing timely context before the narrative war begins.

8,192 Followers 3 Following 7,649 Posts Joined Nov 2024
10 hours ago

The company is the largest and most important microelectronics manufacturing firm in the country supplying critical components for Iskander, Pantsir, Kalibr, and other precision weapons.

#OSINT #Ukraine #Russia
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10 hours ago
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𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗱!

Video of six Ukrainian Su-24 Fencer-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles striking the Silicon EL Group (Группа Кремний ЭЛ) production facilities in Bryansk, Russia.
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12 hours ago

He also references the sensor-to-shooter architecture that has been deployed in the strait to counter them.

That is the correct battlespace assessment.

And it is precisely what was missing from every previous statement.

Someone got through to him.

#OSINT #Iran #EpicFury
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12 hours ago

Gone is the idea that 115 ballistic launchers were the shipping threat.

Instead, in a Truth Social post today, he pivots to the actual threat picture.

Mines.
Fast boats.
Marine drones (USVs).
Asymmetric systems.
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12 hours ago
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𝗤𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗸 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘂𝘇

The president has quietly abandoned every Hormuz position he staked when oil prices began climbing.

Gone are Navy escorts.
Gone is war-risk insurance.
Gone is “show some guts.”
Gone is the claim that Iran has “no navy.”
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12 hours ago

That would leave the Revolutionary Guard not merely influential but effectively running the state during the most dangerous military crisis the Islamic Republic has faced in decades.

Which is exactly what the pattern of the past ten days already suggested.

#OSINT #Iran #IRGC #MiddleEast
17/17

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12 hours ago

If Mojtaba Khamenei is indeed on a ventilator at Sina Hospital, unaware he has been named Supreme Leader, the implication is stark.

Iran’s war is being prosecuted in the name of a leader who cannot speak, cannot govern, and may not even know he holds the office.
16/17

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12 hours ago

The armed forces are supposed to operate under the authority of the Supreme Leader through the formal state structure.

But the current sequence suggests something very different.

The IRGC security apparatus is setting the wartime tempo. The elected government is reacting to it.
15/17

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12 hours ago

He added that Pezeshkian "did not have much authority even in normal times" and has been fully sidelined under wartime conditions.

Under Iran’s constitutional structure this should not happen.
14/17

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12 hours ago

Further, former IRGC founder Mohsen Sazegara told Euronews plainly that a circle of IRGC commanders, including former Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, are managing state affairs including security and the military.
13/17

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12 hours ago

Drone and missile strikes followed and continue across the Gulf region despite the president’s statement.
12/17

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12 hours ago

President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly apologized to Gulf states for Iranian strikes and pledged they would stop unless those states were used for hostile operations. Within hours the judiciary chief contradicted him, warning that heavy strikes would continue.

They did.
11/17

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12 hours ago

Within hours of the announcement, the loudest loyalty pledges came not from elected officials but from the Revolutionary Guard command structure.

The behavior of Iran’s civilian leadership since then reinforces the same conclusion.
10/17

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12 hours ago

But the reporting around the succession itself already pointed in one direction.

The IRGC drove the outcome.

Mojtaba has long been the Guards’ preferred candidate. Analysts and reporting described heavy pressure on the Assembly during wartime conditions.
9/17

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12 hours ago

The post even identified the surgeons involved in the reported operation, an unusual level of detail that suggests either a leak from inside the medical chain, a decision by the IRGC to leak it to the public or a carefully constructed fabrication for his security.
8/17

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12 hours ago

According to Karami’s message, Mojtaba is reportedly on a ventilator in the ICU under heavy security and is unaware that he has been named Supreme Leader.
7/17

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12 hours ago

The report originates from Iranian media figure Ehsan Karami, a former presenter for the Islamic Republic’s state broadcaster (IRIB), who posted that Mojtaba Khamenei is currently hospitalized at Tehran’s Sina Hospital with severe abdominal and leg injuries from the February 28 strike.
6/17

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12 hours ago

That same strike reportedly killed Mojtaba’s wife and one of his sons at the compound where Ali Khamenei was staying.

Against that backdrop, a new claim has begun circulating.
5/17

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12 hours ago

Iranian state media described Mojtaba as a “janbaz” when reporting his elevation, a term used in Iran for a war-wounded veteran. The regime acknowledged that he had been injured during the February 28 attack but did not explain the circumstances or severity of those wounds.
4/17

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12 hours ago

After the February 28 strike that killed Ali Khamenei and decapitated parts of Iran’s leadership structure, the Islamic Republic moved quickly to project continuity. On March8, the Assembly of Experts formally announced Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader.
3/17

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12 hours ago

𝙉𝙚𝙬 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙨 𝙨𝙪𝙜𝙜𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙈𝙤𝙟𝙩𝙖𝙗𝙖 𝙆𝙝𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙞 𝙞𝙨 𝙤𝙣 𝙖 𝙫𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙤𝙧 𝙖𝙩 𝙎𝙞𝙣𝙖 𝙃𝙤𝙨𝙥𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙡, 𝙪𝙣𝙖𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙗𝙚𝙚𝙣 𝙣𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙙 𝙨𝙪𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙚𝙧.
2/17

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13 hours ago
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‼️🇮🇷𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘: 𝗜𝗥𝗚𝗖 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗠𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗮 𝗮𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿
1/17

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17 hours ago
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🍿🥤Who was in that car?

Video claims first responder aftermath of a UAV strike on a moving vehicle, Bagheri highway, Tehran.

#OSINT #EpicFury

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17 hours ago
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Video of the Bandar Abbas Airbase in the Hormozgan Province or Iran after US - Israeli strikes today.

#OSINT #EpicFury

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17 hours ago
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Strike on IRGC Intelligence Headquarters in Qom, Iran, earlier today.

#OSINT

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20 hours ago

benefiting Russia’s war effort.

Sources: Financial Times, Telex, UNN, Euronews, Kyiv Post, official NBU/Oschadbank statements
24/24

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20 hours ago

EU rules governing lawful financial transfers have not been enforced, commitments to end dependence on Russian energy have been subordinated to internal political leverage, and Hungary has been allowed to inflict material economic harm on Ukraine while obstructing EU policy and materially
23/24

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20 hours ago

For Kyiv, the operational reality is unambiguous.
22/24

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20 hours ago

In the Oschadbank case, Ukraine's requests for EU involvement produced no comparable public pressure on Budapest.

In the Druzhba case, EU involvement ran in the opposite direction directly reinforcing Hungary's negotiating position while publicly assigning political responsibility to Kyiv.
21/24

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20 hours ago

Brussels has issued no formal criticism of Hungary's seizure of Ukrainian state bank assets. European Commission spokespeople have limited their response to acknowledging awareness of media reports and declining substantive comment.
20/24

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